Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Baltimore has dominated the rivalry with Cleveland recently, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings straight-up while going 8-4 against the spread.

But the Browns are coming off a big upset victory over New Orleans, and they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven divisional home games.

Point spread: The game opened as a pickem and has held steady through mid-week wagering; the total was 41.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 20.9-15.6 Ravens

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens are coming off a solid 26-6 victory over Pittsburgh last Thursday, covering the spread as field-goal favorites. Baltimore outrushed the Steelers 157 yards to 99, held the ball for over 35 minutes and won the turnover battle 3-0. That's how you cover a spread.

QB Joe Flacco threw two short TD passes, and RB Bernard Pierce, acting as the main ground man with Ray Rice gone, produced 96 yards on 22 carries. Plus, Baltimore played last Thursday, so it has a couple extra days to prepare for Cleveland.

The Ravens have escaped several upset bids by the Browns in recent seasons, so maybe they hold a sort of mental edge over their AFC North rivals. The trends report suggests Baltimore can continue its spread-covering ways here.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns are coming off a big 26-24 home win over New Orleans, driving from their own 4-yard line in the final minutes to kick a game-winning field goal at the final whistle. Cleveland lost to the Saints on the stat sheet but forced one very big turnover, hurrying Drew Brees into a bad pass that was picked off and returned for a touchdown.

And Browns QB Brian Hoyer is showing he can play in the NFL, going 24-of-40 passing without an interception, converting three third-down throws into first downs during the Browns' game-winning drive.

In fact, Cleveland is now 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in games Hoyer has started.

Smart Pick

This looks like a tough one, as the spread indicates. Both teams are coming off much-needed victories after tough season-opening losses. But perhaps the worm is ready to turn in this rivalry.

Baltimore had beaten Cleveland 11 times in a row, but several of the most recent meetings could have gone either way, and the Browns beat the Ravens in the second meeting between the teams last year. Baltimore isn't what it used to be, and Cleveland is improving.

The pick here is with the Browns to extend their 5-2 ATS streak in divisional play.

Trends

• Ravens 11-1 SU last 12 meetings with Browns
• Ravens 5-1 ATS last six meetings at Cleveland
• Ravens 0-4 SU & ATS last four road games vs. AFC North
• Browns 5-2 ATS last seven home games vs. AFC North

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark, follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.