Ranking the 4 Most Likely World Series Matchups

Ranking MLB clubs is a difficult enterprise. Ranking World Series matchups is even more so.

After all, there is no telling what will happen once the bell rings and October baseball begins. In 2012, for example, the St. Louis Cardinals parlayed the second wild-card spot into an appearance in the National League Championship Series.

Because of the uncertain nature of postseason baseball, we will focus our attention on the four MLB clubs with the best odds of winning the World Series based on futures listed by Odds Shark at the beginning of the month.

In descending order, they are the Baltimore Orioles (7-1), Washington Nationals (6-1), Los Angeles Dodgers (11-2) and Los Angeles Angels (5-1).

What will follow is a detailed breakdown of some key matchups and statistical performances. There will be no predictions. Rather, we will point out some strengths and weaknesses that would surely factor heavily into each outcome should the clubs meet in the World Series.

Here are MLB's four most likely World Series matchups.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

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The Baltimore Orioles and the Washington Nationals play their home games less than 65 miles away from one another. And if these two meet in the World Series, you can bet that the Baltimore-Washington Parkway is going to be a parking lot on game days.

Inside the stadium, however, the action is going to be intense.

Both clubs rank in the top five of their respective leagues in several key offensive metrics and are ridiculously close to one another in several areas.

The Nationals, for example, have score 643 runs with 1,296 hits and 249 doubles. Meanwhile, the Orioles have crossed home plate 663 times with 1,345 hits and 250 doubles, per ESPN.com.

To be sure, the Orioles are a better slugging ballclub, putting up a .165 ISO as a team, but the Nationals do quite well creating runs, leading MLB with a 13.9 baserunning rating, according to FanGraphs. Not that manager Matt Williams' team can't hit the ball a long way, of course; it's just a different brand of run production.

The real difference-maker is the dichotomy between the two pitching staffs.

The Nats, for example, lead MLB with a 20.2 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR ranking) from their hurlers, via FanGraphs. The Orioles aren't as good in this area, ranking 16th with a combined 13.8 fWAR.

If we dig a bit deeper, it becomes clear that the rotation is the group responsible for the separation. Entering play Wednesday, the Nationals starters ranked second in MLB with a 15.2 fWAR while the Orioles came in at No. 20 with a 9.2 fWAR.

And it is the pitching that would seem to give the Nationals the edge in the matchup between these two clubs. The odds aren't necessarily in favor of them meeting, but it isn't too difficult to imagine this scenario playing out.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Baltimore Orioles

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While the Los Angeles Dodgers may have better odds of winning the World Series, the Baltimore Orioles have played better baseball over the course of the last two-plus months.

For evidence, we can point to their 82 home runs and .182 ISO over the season's second half, both of which lead MLB, per FanGraphs. Per those same splits, the Dodgers have only hit 41 home runs and have a .130 ISO, which rank 21st and 15th, respectively.

The Dodgers do a better job of generating offense thanks to a .271 batting average and a .335 on-base percentage, and they rank third in MLB with a 25.2 offensive rating, but overall, the Orioles have a more dangerous lineup.

And if you think the Dodgers have an edge in the rotation or in the bullpen, you'd be wrong.

Manager Buck Showalter's rotation is fourth in MLB in the second half with a 2.95 ERA and second with a .273 batting average against on balls in play. They have been fantastic.

Don Mattingly's unit ranks sixth in each metric with respective marks of 3.20 and .282, per FanGraphs. The recent injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't help matters. Mattingly sounded optimistic about the left-hander's status, however, saying that Ryu will "be off for the next couple days and then meet up in Chicago with us and start throwing," according to MLB.com's Jake Kring-Schreifels.

It must be noted that thanks to Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers do hold an edge in strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and fielding independent pitching (FIP), but the leather the Orioles throw around mitigates any advantage there.

In the bullpen, the Orioles' 2.94 FIP, 8.88 K/9 and 2.67 walks per nine innings (BB/9) easily outpaces the 3.61 FIP, 7.67 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9 the Dodgers have put together. In fact, the splits at FanGraphs show that the O's bullpen has better numbers in almost every metric.

Now, this isn't to say that the Dodgers would lose this matchup, but with the Orioles holding home-field advantage, they have to have an edge.

Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels

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Back in April, the Los Angeles Angels were on the verge of sweeping the Washington Nationals in Washington. Only a blown save by Ernesto Frieri (who was subsequently traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates) prevented Mike Trout and company from outscoring the Nats 14-5.

Quite a bit has changed since then.

Entering play on Wednesday, the Nationals led all of MLB in FIP (3.22), pitchers' WAR (20.2) and were second in ERA (3.06), per FanGraphs. Meanwhile, the Angels top the FanGraphs leaderboard in runs (739), wRC+ (112), offensive rating (77.4) and WAR (30.3).

In other words, the winner of this series will hinge upon which group does a better job at what it does best. Will the Angels rule the day with their lineup, or will the Nationals shut the vaunted offense down with their pitching staff?

None of this is meant to discount what the Nationals do on offense, nor is it a dismissal of the Angels' pitching staff. Rather, the ultimate strength of each club is straightforward, and whichever team excels at its forte will walk away victorious should this be the matchup.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Based on the odds, a World Series featuring the Los Angeles Angels and the Los Angeles Dodgers is in the offing. Many things have to go right for each club, of course, but the chance that they meet up is great.

And if they do, it will be a battle for the ages.

The two teams, for example, entered play on Wednesday as the top offensive clubs in September based on fWAR. Both clubs were also in the top four in runs, slugging, wOBA, wRC+ and offensive rating, per Fangraphs.

Any way it's looked at, each lineup is in beast mode right now.

For as dominant as the Angels are on offense, however, they may be at a disadvantage thanks to the loss of ace Garrett Richards.

"The postseason tends to be a different animal, however," Bleacher Report's Jason Catania recently noted, "one that often requires the presence of at least one shutdown starter, which the Angels lack now that Richards is out of the picture."

True, manager Mike Scioscia has Matt Shoemaker on his staff, but he suffered an oblique strain on Monday night, per MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. Another thing to keep in mind is that it's having a hard time getting the ball over the plate, issuing 3.45 walks every nine innings, which is good for 27th in MLB, via FanGraphs.

The Dodgers are significantly better in each metric. And we would be remiss if we didn't mention that the Dodgers took three out of the four games the teams have played against each other.

That said, these clubs match up very well against one another.

And who wouldn't love to see a World Series at-bat between Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw? That's just good theatre.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are accurate as of game time Wednesday, Sept. 17. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com. 

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