Rajon Rondo's 2014-15 Season All About Increasing Trade Value
Of all the basketball criticisms of Rajon Rondo—and there aren’t many—the most well worn may be the Boston Celtics' floor general can often be too unselfish for his and his team’s own good.
But with Rondo and the Celtics facing a season of uncertainty ahead of the All-Star point guard’s impending free agency next summer, the directive couldn’t be clearer: This year, it’s all about padding the stats.
Why? If Danny Ainge has any sense at all, he’ll deal Rondo for the biggest haul possible at the trade deadline.
First, a little background.
During a taping of ESPN’s Around the Horn on August 27, longtime Boston Globe columnist Jackie MacMullan—apparently unaware her comments might be aired—told her colleagues she believes Rondo “wants out” of Boston, according to Deadpsin.
While the media treated MacMullan’s snafu like some scriptural revelation, the writing had long been on the wall. Exhibit A being the Celtics selecting Oklahoma State phenom Marcus Smart—a point guard—with the No. 6 pick in June’s draft.
Despite Ainge’s clumsy attempts, via Boston.com’s Brian Robb, to posit the possibility the two might “really thrive playing together,” the move only crystalized Boston’s commitment to rebuilding from the bottom up.
Besides, it’s not as if Rondo has been unequivocal in his desire to remain in Beantown. Here's what he told reporters in June:
"I'm pretty comfortable. I have a beautiful home here. I love it here. I have a great neighbor, the best neighbor in the world. I don’t want to leave. It's just part of the process that I'll talk about once the season's over. As of now I'm a Celtic.
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"Pretty comfortable"...as of now.
This isn’t to suggest Rondo is somehow being insincere. “Rhetorically precise” would be a better term—and a fitting one, given Rondo’s reputation as one of the league’s more cerebral, calculating minds.
Assuming the Celtics intend on making Smart their point guard of the future, losing Rondo for nothing makes as much sense as Brad Stevens conducting practices in a swimming pool.
Boston will be taking phone calls right up to 2:59 p.m. ET next February 19—that much is clear. The question now becomes how Rondo can steer his production to attract the attention of the most ideal suitors while at the same time guaranteeing the Celtics get the best possible assets in return.
One thing’s for sure: If Ainge thinks he has any chance of simply swapping superstars, he’s got another thing coming. From Moke Hamilton of Basketball Insiders:
"Danny Ainge pulled a contender out of his hat before, but this time it seems like the road back to contention is going to be a little bit longer, because he’s not going to get contending pieces in return for Rondo. He’ll be fortunate to get a promising young big man, like a Greg Monroe and a couple of draft picks. Brad Stevens really had his moments last year and looks like he could be the right guy for the job in Boston, but this looks like it’s going to be another painful year.
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Just as the Minnesota Timberwolves had to “settle” for a grab bag of mostly unproven products in exchange for Kevin Love, the Celtics can’t expect anything more than picks and pieces in any potential Rondo deal—the caulk, rather than the cornerstone, of Boston’s current rebuild.
Recently, Bleacher Report’s Michael Walsh offered up a clever analogy in describing what kind of potential packages a Rondo trade might yield the Celtics:
"In the end, Rondo's trade value probably resembles his game. He is a stat sheet stuffer and probably the league's biggest triple-double threat. Therefore, a package for him would look a lot like a triple-double, with a little bit of everything: a first-round pick, at least one young talent, an expiring contract and maybe also a team willing to take on one of Boston's iffy contracts as well.
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How valuable those pieces are, through, depends on how fast Rondo flies out of the gate.
Owing to a knee injury suffered the previous season, Rondo’s 2013-14 campaign was anything but up to career snuff, with the four-time All-Star registering drop-offs in nearly every advanced statistical category.
| Season | Points | Assists | TS% | PER |
| 2011-12 | 11.9 | 11.7 | .483 | 17.5 |
| 2012-13 | 13.7 | 11.1 | .516 | 18.1 |
| 2013-14 | 11.7 | 9.8 | .461 | 15.3 |
To be fair, it’s difficult to say how much of Rondo’s struggles can be attributed to his recovery and how much was the product of having to play with inferior talent. If it’s mostly the former, expecting a bounce-back season from the 28-year-old point guard isn’t unrealistic.
If it’s more the latter, however, hope for a statistical surge might be a bit misguided—particularly considering Boston’s youth-laden core has remained almost entirely intact.
That’s not to say the Celtics won’t be better than last year’s 25-win whipping post. Between Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Smart and fellow rookie James Young, Stevens and his staff have at least five players from whom they should be able to expect some semblance of development and improvement. Having a healthy Rondo for a full season will only aid in that cause.
At the same time, Ainge’s vision categorically precludes Boston being anything near a playoff team. When you’re operating according to that brand of blueprint, statistical hits are all but inevitable—for Rondo included.
Potential Rondo suitors understand this, of course. They know the measure of the man is as much about the context as it is his own on-court constitution. Even if Rondo authors a subpar three-and-a-half months, the potential reward to be reaped by these teams—an elite-level point guard in an era where having one is a virtual must—far outstrips the risk.
What Rondo must hope doesn’t happen, however, is a potential sign-and-trade partner emptying the cupboards too much on Boston’s behalf.
For an example, one need look no further than the New York Knicks, who in 2011 parted with three full-time starters and a first-round pick in exchange for Carmelo Anthony. It was a hemorrhaging of talent from which the Knicks are still trying to recover a full four years later.
It’s the kind of basketball brinksmanship that can make one’s head spin—however unconscious or unintentional.
Having watched Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen all fly the coup, it’s understandable Rondo would be wary of wandering waywardly into some nebulous five-year rebuild.
All the same, securing his ticket out of town might demand the mercurial maestro play the part of the good soldier—to prove to the bevy of potential suitors that he’s not about to let short-term losses impede the bigger picture.
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