Atlanta Falcons 2014 Virtual Program: Depth Chart Analysis, X-Factors and More
The Atlanta Falcons are starting their quest for redemption after last year's pitiful season. They won't have Tony Gonzalez, but they will have 53 other men who have a ton of talent and ability. The Falcons also have a new demeanor after being considered too soft in 2013.
Toughness and grit seemed to be the keywords this year, and this year's team was built to be more physical along the lines. But that's not the only unit that had a change. Follow along for this year's Falcons breakdown.
Quarterbacks
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Starter: Matt Ryan
If there was ever a time that a quarterback was set up for a career year, it would be Matt Ryan this season. He has the best wide receiving corps that he's ever had and has an offensive line that should be able to pass block for him effectively. It shouldn't shock anyone if he posts more than 5,000 yards passing and 35 touchdowns this year.
Primary Backup: T.J. Yates
T.J. Yates was having a horrible preseason up until his final game. The Falcons have been using Yates as their primary backup all preseason, and as he continues to get more comfortable in the offense, it would be surprising to see him lose the role to Sean Renfree.
Secondary Backup: Sean Renfree
Renfree looked solid within the scope of the offense during the preseason. However, he didn't seem to have much deep-ball ability. He needs to get comfortable enough to make the big-time throws, or he's going to be a third-string quarterback for a long time.
Running Backs
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Featured: Steven Jackson
Steven Jackson is finally healthy after battling a hamstring injury all preseason. The Falcons need him to show that he's able to take at least 150-200 carries this season. If he can break the 200-carry mark, a 1,000 yard season isn't out of the question with the Falcons' improved offensive line.
Change of Pace: Jacquizz Rodgers
Should Jackson stay healthy, Jacquizz Rodgers is the primary change-of-pace back for the Falcons. He has solid vision, but his best asset is the surprising power that he can pack into his 5'7", 199-pound frame. He also has great receiving abilities that make him a reliable all-around back who gains yards in chunks.
Change of Pace: Devonta Freeman
Devonta Freeman may be a rookie, but he's already shown great vision with the rushing schemes and looks to be the primary tailback of the future. He's also a solid pass-blocker already. On top of that, he can turn any play into a big one with his unique combination of vision and shiftiness.
Change of Pace/Special Teams Ace: Antone Smith
Antone Smith is the unappreciated gunner who has made the Falcons roster for the past six years. Atlanta finally is letting him get some carries in the offense, and hopefully, he can duplicate his preseason and 2013 results by giving the Falcons some big plays.
Fullback: Patrick DiMarco
Fullbacks are one of the easiest positions to find on the undrafted free-agent and street free-agent market. DiMarco is one of the few who sticks from year to year after he beat out Falcons 2012 fifth-round pick Bradie Ewing for the job in the 2013 season.
Wide Receivers
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No. 1: Julio Jones
Julio Jones is everything that every quarterback would want in a No. 1 wide receiver option. He's big at 6'3", 220 pounds and has ridiculous speed. The only real issues are his lengthy injury history and tendency to miss at least one game each season. He could have a career year if he's 100 percent healthy, though.
Possession: Roddy White
Roddy White is arguably the best wide receiver in Atlanta Falcons history. He's looking like he's 100 percent healthy again and should be able to be the same reliable Roddy this year. The Falcons need him to take over as a third-down option in the wake of losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement.
Slot: Harry Douglas
Harry Douglas had a career year in 2013, but he still isn't a top receiver in the NFL. Without the volume of targets, Douglas should see his stats ebb quite a bit. He should still see some production as a third option in the offense.
Speed: Devin Hester
The Falcons needed to improve their return game, so Devin Hester was originally brought in for that. But training camp revealed that Hester is so much more than just a return specialist. He could legitimately beat out Douglas for the slot receiver role by the time the season ends.
Special Teams Aces: Eric Weems and Courtney Roby
This is a role that shouldn't see much playing time on offense as the Falcons have four very talented receivers. Weems is a great special teams player and understands the Keith Armstrong system, while Roby has done well this preseason despite missing time due to the birth of his son. The Falcons could end up cutting either one of these guys during the season for Drew Davis or one of the receivers on the practice squad.
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Tight Ends
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Starter: Levine Toilolo
Replacing Tony Gonzalez is always a tough task. The only real improvement over the Great One that Levine Toilolo will bring is as a blocker. Toilolo has a long way to go as a tight end and is still very much a project. He does have the work ethic and athletic talent to be great if he can put it all together. He could surprise this year if he catches more than 50 passes for more than 600 yards.
Blocking Backup: Bear Pascoe
Having Bear Pascoe is like having another offensive tackle at the end of the offensive line. He's a pure blocking tight end who has the dexterity and mobility to get to the second level quickly and seal off the edge. He will allow Toilolo to move around the formation when the Falcons run two-tight end sets.
Offensive Linemen
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Left Tackle: Jake Matthews
The Falcons needed stability at left tackle after Sam Baker's injury history showed that he just wasn't going to be the long-term option. Jake Matthews is already the starting left tackle and could end up being the best Falcons left tackle since Bob Whitfield or even Mike Kenn.
Left Guard: Justin Blalock
Justin Blalock is the old reliable veteran of the offensive line. He's a leader behind the scenes and a rock in the middle of the line. He's going to always be a good pass protector, but he does need to get a bit tougher as a run-blocking guard.
Center: Joe Hawley
Nastiness is the first word that comes to mind with Joe Hawley. He's not going to let anyone punk his quarterback. The rest of the offensive line follows his lead, and with a good season this year, Hawley could be looking like he's the next Todd McClure.
Right Guard: Jon Asamoah
Atlanta hasn't had a good right guard since Harvey Dahl left after the 2010 season. That all changed this year when the Falcons brought in Jon Asamoah to be the nasty presence inside that they were missing. Asamoah is very similar to Dahl in terms of build and attitude, but Dahl was the better run-blocker, while Asamoah is a better pass-blocker.
Right Tackle: Lamar Holmes
This is likely Lamar Holmes' final shot at earning a starting role in the NFL. He's set up to succeed with a competent right guard and a stable left side of the line. If he plays to his potential, the Falcons could end up having the best offensive tackle combination in the NFC South.
Swing Tackle: Gabe Carimi
Gabe Carimi is a first-round bust for the Chicago Bears, but for the Falcons, he just has to be a solid depth offensive lineman and the swing tackle for when they want to run six-offensive linemen sets. Carimi can play everything but center and deserves to have a shot as a long-term backup in Atlanta.
Backup Interior Lineman: Peter Konz
It's tough to find a good starting center, and the Falcons look to have finally found one in Hawley. However, Peter Konz still has a ton of potential that has been untapped. He may never start in Atlanta, but if he can be solid depth at both guard and center on game days, Atlanta would still get some value out of him.
Developmental Tackle: Ryan Schraeder
Ryan Schraeder is a great physical specimen, but he still is extremely raw as an offensive lineman. He's quick and has great punch but offers little more technically at this point. On the bright side, working with Mike Tice has really helped the second-year tackle develop as an all-around player.
Developmental Interior Lineman: James Stone
This was the one roster decision that truly baffled me. James Stone didn't show any potential to be anything more than a depth player in the NFL. He has poor technique that was even made fun of on Hard Knocks. But if the Falcons think he's something, he's worth at least keeping on the roster. Just don't expect him to be active on game day.
Defensive Linemen
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3-4 Weak-Side Defensive End/4-3 Under Tackle: Jonathan Babineaux
The second-longest tenured Atlanta Falcon currently on the roster is Jonathan Babineaux. He's been the rock in the middle of the defensive line for years and is the leader of the group. He's likely going to be the starter regardless of the set that the Falcons run and should see a lot of time rotating in for passing sets. Ideally, though, he'd be the rotational interior pass-rusher.
3-4 Strong-Side Defensive End: Tyson Jackson
Tyson Jackson is a very good talent as a defensive end in the 3-4. He'll eat double-teams and allow linebackers to roam free behind him. However, he looked terrible in the preseason. The Falcons need to see more from him. Otherwise, Malliciah Goodman could take the starting role.
3-4 and 4-3 Nose Tackle: Paul Soliai
Atlanta needed some girth in the middle of its defense. So when Paul Soliai signed with the Falcons, they addressed an issue that was hurting the defense as a whole for years. Soliai's massive 6'4", 340-pound frame should eat up blockers inside and allow the Falcons to stop the run much more effectively.
Rotational Defensive Lineman: Ra'Shede Hageman
The long-term plan for Ra'Shede Hageman should be for him to beat out Jackson for the starting role at strong-side defensive end in the 3-4. However, for now, he should be playing a lot as a rotational defensive tackle and defensive end in the 3-4 and 4-3 sets.
Rotational Defensive Lineman: Malliciah Goodman
Goodman is rotating now, but he's been impressive during the preseason. If he can keep up his production throughout the season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him take Jackson or Babineaux's starting role. He's great against the run and is finally turning on the switch as a pass-blocker.
Rotational Defensive Lineman: Corey Peters
Corey Peters suffered an Achilles injury in Week 16 of the 2013 season. He was having the best year of his career and was going to be set up for a pretty decent payday. Unfortunately, he has to fight injury in yet another contract year. Hopefully, he looks as good as he did in 2013. It would give the Falcons a good problem to have with six guys worthy of a lot of playing time and not enough snaps for everyone.
Rotational Defensive Lineman/Special Teams Guy: Cliff Matthews
Cliff Matthews likely won't see any playing time on defense with just how deep the line is right now, and that's not a bad thing for him. He should be an ace for the special teams units and could turn in great performances as a gunner this season.
Edge Players
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4-3 Strong-Side Defensive End/3-4 Strong Outside Linebacker: Kroy Biermann
Kroy Biermann comes back from an Achilles injury this year and looks a bit slower than he did in 2013. If he doesn't shore up the role, this could be where the Falcons look with their 2015 first-round pick. Biermann is talented, but he needs to get out of the funk that he was in during the preseason.
3-4 Weak Outside Linebacker: Jonathan Massaquoi
If there was a Falcons candidate for breakout player of the year, it would be Jonathan Massaquoi. After logging four sacks during his six starts at defensive end last season, he should be able to get at least double this year. He's a scary good pass-rusher who should be emphasized this season.
Designated Pass-Rusher: Osi Umenyiora
Speaking of pass-rushers, Osi Umenyiora gets a new role as the designated pass-rusher, which means he shouldn't see nearly as many run downs. He'll be allowed to pin his ears back and attack this year. This will only help him and the entire pass rush, as he could break double digits again.
Rotational Outside Linebacker: Stansly Maponga
Stansly Maponga looked mediocre in the snaps that he took as a rookie, but under the guidance of Mark Collins this season, he has developed into a nice player. He could end up as a surprisingly good rotational player off the edge, and he showed some flashes during the preseason.
Developmental Edge Player: Tyler Starr
Tyler Starr didn't have a strong preseason, but his long-term potential could be that of a Kroy Biermann-type player. He may never see a Pro Bowl, and that's OK. The NFL has a ton of guys who made their livings as rotational or role players.
Linebackers
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4-3 Weak-Side Linebacker/3-4 Weak Inside Linebacker: Joplo Bartu
As of now, Joplo Bartu looks to have won the competition for the starting inside linebacker job next to Paul Worrilow. Bartu is a quick linebacker who has trouble shedding blocks but does very well in coverage. The Falcons should also take advantage of his pass-rushing skills this year as they try to manufacture pressure.
4-3 Middle Linebacker/3-4 Strong Inside Linebacker: Paul Worrilow
Paul Worrilow getting a sack on an A-gap blitz is something teams need to get used to seeing. He's developing into a great pass-rusher after showing off as a solid run defender in the 2013 season. As he continues to grow and show leadership within the defense, Worrilow will prove he's a potential Pro Bowl player.
4-3 Strong-Side Linebacker/Rotational Linebacker: Prince Shembo
Prince Shembo wasn't an ideal fit for outside linebacker in the 3-4 after his collegiate career. The Falcons moving him to inside linebacker was a bit of a shock, but it looks like the right move. Shembo is a great athlete and should be able to develop into a valuable member of the linebacking corps.
Depth Linebacker/Special Teams Guy: Nate Stupar
Nate Stupar is going to be behind the eight-ball when it comes to learning the defense. However, he's a great special teams player and should give Atlanta instant value there. He may be nothing more than that as an NFL player, but there are worse things in life than playing in the NFL as a special teams ace.
Cornerbacks
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No. 1 Cornerback: Desmond Trufant
As a rookie, Desmond Trufant looked like he was worthy of a Pro Bowl. He didn't start the season out extraordinarily well but progressed quickly as it went along. He didn't get a lot of interceptions, but he did wind up with 19 passes defensed in total—a mark that Brent Grimes had in 2011.
No. 2 Cornerback: Robert Alford
Robert Alford is a great athlete, but he still needs to develop the mental and instinctual aspects of his game in coverage. He had less lapses in this preseason than he did in 2013's, but the Falcons are hoping that he can have zero lapses overall.
Nickel Corner: Robert McClain
The Falcons don't really have a winner for nickel as of now, but Robert McClain looked like the best overall corner in the preseason out of the guys who were competing for the job. McClain has the ability to drop back like a safety if Mike Nolan really wants to get fancy in his nickel looks, and that adds a ton of value.
Dime Corner: Josh Wilson
Josh Wilson is primarily a nickel, but he originally made his bones on the outside. As the veteran presence in the cornerback group, Wilson should have value, but he may not see a ton of playing time outside of dime sets and matchups in the nickel, where he's more valuable there than McClain.
Quarter Corner/Special Teams Guy: Javier Arenas
Javier Arenas as nickel depth is a great situation to have. He's not going to be a great outside corner, but he's a special teams talent and offers depth at both returner and gunner. This might just be Atlanta's deepest group of talent on the team.
Safeties
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Strong Safety: William Moore
William Moore is the veteran leader of the safeties and the secondary in general. He's also the likely choice for a defensive captain spot when the season ends. Moore is good against the run and solid in coverage, as he's shown to be a good all-around safety since being drafted in 2009.
Free Safety: Dwight Lowery
Dwight Lowery has a few questions in regard to his concussion history and overall health. The Falcons are taking a risk starting him at free safety. But it could reap some great rewards, as he understands how to get his hands on the ball and create turnovers for a team that needs them.
Primary Backup at Both Safety Spots: Kemal Ishmael
Kemal Ishmael saw time in the preseason as both a free safety and a strong safety and looked competent in both roles. The Falcons should allow him to be the primary backup at both spots and continue to develop the hard-hitting Central Florida product. If Lowery goes down to injury, Ishmael should be ready to take his spot.
Project Safety/Special Teams Guy: Dezmen Southward
After battling a concussion the latter half of the preseason, Dezmen Southward looks to be primarily a special teams safety this season. He has a long way to go before he's ready to take over the starting free safety role that he was drafted for. However, Atlanta does have a good talent here and could end up with a steal if he develops fully.
Special Teams
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Kicker: Matt Bryant
When talking about kickers, "old," "reliable," and "nerves of steel" tend to be things you look for. Matt Bryan has all three attributes going for him. He's likely entering one of his final seasons in the pros as he turns 40 this year. The Falcons should try to send him out with a bang.
Kickoff Specialist and Punter: Matt Bosher
Matt "The Basher" Bosher is one of the best punters in the NFL. He has a booming leg and understands how to corner punts so that they go out of bounds inside the 10-yard line. Bosher also kicks almost every ball through the back of the end zone, mitigating return yardage.
Long Snapper: Josh Harris
It's tough to scout long snappers. So when a guy sticks with a team for three straight years and you don't hear much about him, it's safe to assume that he's doing his job well. Bad long snappers don't last long in the NFL, as the position is as disposable as toilet tissue.
Return Specialist: Devin Hester
It's hard to find a good returner. The Falcons know this all too well after the experiments to replace Eric Weems with Robert McClain, Jacquizz Rodgers, Harry Douglas and Dominique Franks all failed the past two seasons. So they went out and got the best return man of all time in Devin Hester.
X-Factors
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RB Devonta Freeman
The Falcons rushing game lives and dies with the offensive line in 2014. But Devonta Freeman could be a spark when the team needs it during games. He has the best attributes of all three of the other running backs and could be the next Warrick Dunn if he completely fills his potential.
WR/KR/PR Devin Hester
When a guy touches the ball and you know that he's just one broken tackle from taking it to the house, it's thrilling. Devin Hester has that ability every single play he gets the ball in his hands. Atlanta will try to get him the highest volume of touches that it can and should reap the benefits from it.
EP Jonathan Massaquoi
After developing the first two years of his career into a good run defender, Jonathan Massaquoi will get a shot to finally show his all-around talent as an edge player in the defense. He should be used the way Terrell Suggs is used in Baltimore, and he could be a dangerous pass-rusher if it works.
DL Malliciah Goodman
Malliciah Goodman was a surprisingly good run defender in 2013 and helped the Falcons set the edge effectively when they didn't have many players who could. In 2014, he should see a lot more snaps than he did and could turn into the top defensive end on the roster before the season is through.
Critical Factors for a Successful Season
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1. Stop the Run Effectively
Stopping the run on defense affects much more than the time of possession. It forces longer third- and even second-down plays. By forcing longer plays, it forces more throws and should allow the defense to pin its ears back on passing downs to get after quarterbacks. Having a run defense near the top of the league would be a huge change from 2013 when the Falcons had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
2. Run the Ball Effectively
Setting the tone on offense always comes from being able to run the ball and control the clock. While the Falcons haven't been able to do that since Michael Turner's heyday, they do have a better offensive line than what Turner had. They need to average more than 4.3 yards per carry this season in order to open up the passing game and control the clock.
3. Stay Healthy
Injuries suck. The Falcons have already lost Mike Johnson and Sam Baker along the offensive line again and Sean Weatherspoon at linebacker again. But they are more prepared for those losses this season than they were in 2013. Atlanta needs to keep its best players healthy as best as it can this season.
4. Keep Matt Ryan Upright
After seeing him get sacked 40-plus times in 2013 and hit just as many times on top of that, the Falcons need to make sure they protect their franchise quarterback. In just 2013 alone, Matt Ryan had a 99.0 passer rating on plays that he wasn't pressured, but it dropped to just 72.0 on plays that he saw pressure. Atlanta needs to make sure it keeps Ryan standing, or it could be in for another long season.
Game-by-Game Season Predictions
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I could get into a long, drawn-out prediction for each game, but we don't know the circumstances or the injuries that will happen throughout the year. These predictions are based on the Falcons staying 100 percent healthy and playing these teams at 100 percent health themselves. I'm just predicting the outcomes of who will win, so that you can see how I've arrived at the final season predictions.
Game 1: New Orleans Saints in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Game 2: Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium: Falcons win.
Game 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Game 4: Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium: Falcons win.
Game 5: New York Giants at MetLife Stadium: Giants win.
Game 6: Chicago Bears in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Game 7: Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium: Ravens win.
Game 8: Detroit Lions in Wembley Stadium: Falcons win.
Game 9: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium: Buccaneers win.
Game 10: Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium: Panthers win.
Game 11: Cleveland Browns in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Game 12: Arizona Cardinals in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Game 13: Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field: Packers win.
Game 14: Pittsburgh Steelers in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Game 15: New Orleans Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome: Saints win.
Game 16: Carolina Panthers in the Georgia Dome: Falcons win.
Final Record: 10-6
The Falcons go 10-6 in this prediction. Ideally, they will win the second Saints game and the Packers game in Lambeau, but even if they don't, the Falcons will show this year that they are a much improved team. It's amazing what spending a top-10 pick on an offensive lineman can do to change a team's fortunes.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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