10 Pivotal Factors That Will Decide FIFA World Cup 2014 Group D
Group D is one of the more intriguing groups at this year's World Cup, containing as it does three teams that would reasonably expect at least to reach the knockout stages of the competition.
The pressure on England may be less than in competitions past, but despite the attempts to dampen expectation, there would surely still be widespread disappointment if Roy Hodgson's side did not at least reach the last 16, as they have done in each of the least four World Cups.
Italy, the 2006 winners, and Uruguay, semi-finalists four years ago, will also both expect to be a factor come the final weeks of action in Brazil—but at least one of them will end up sorely disappointed in that aim.
Then there is Costa Rica, the overlooked fourth member of the group. Few may fancy their chances, but the World Cup has thrown up bigger surprises before.
Here are 10 key factors that could decide how Group D pans out.
Will Luis Suarez Be Fit in Time to Make a Real Impact?
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The reports are conflicting—some have said Luis Suarez can recover from the minor knee surgery he had on May 22 in three weeks, others have put the rehabilitation period nearer six or seven.
The difference is significant. The more optimistic prognostications would have him back in time to play in his country's first group game against Costa Rica, but the longer lay-off would effectively rule him out of the tournament entirely (unavailable as he would be until the latest stages of the competition).
Four years ago, Uruguay reached the semi-finals thanks to Suarez's controversial handball against Ghana in the quarter-finals, but it was ultimately Diego Forlan who was the attacking talisman of the side.
This time Suarez's importance cannot be overstated: Forlan, 35, is in the final throes of his career, and as good as Edinson Cavani is, the onus is now on the Liverpool striker.
Without him, Uruguay are a far less imposing threat, a far more comfortable team to defend against. They may have the strength and ability to negotiate Costa Rica without him, but his absence would be keenly felt against England or Italy.
The player himself has insisted he will make an impact in Brazil. Even on their home continent, you feel he will have to if Uruguay are to prevent European domination of this group.
Will Wayne Rooney Finally Live Up to the Hype at a World Cup?
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Wayne Rooney has famously never scored in a World Cup after two previous appearances. At 28, he might never get another chance to make a real impact on the biggest stage of all.
The player himself admitted as much to reporters during England's camp in Portugal:
"At the World Cup in 2018, I’ll be older so it will be difficult to make an impact. I want to show the world what I can do and this is the time do it. There will be no excuses.
This is the last big one that I feel will get the best out of me. I can deliver and this is the one where I have to show what I can do.
"
Having set the bar high himself, it will be interesting to see if the Manchester United attacker—coming off a club campaign that was only passable by his own high standards—can now meet his own expectations.
England likely need him to. While Daniel Sturridge, Rickie Lambert and Danny Welbeck all possess a threat, they are all tasting the World Cup for the first time.
Rooney must lead by example.
Which Mario Balotelli Will Turn Up in Brazil?
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At Euro 2012, Italy surprised some as they reached the final, although they were eventually exposed in somewhat brutal fashion by Spain.
That run was down in great part to Mario Balotelli, who asserted his brilliance most obviously in the semi-final when he scored twice in a bullying performance against Germany.
Balotelli's career has gone through highs and lows since then, but after returning to his home country with AC Milan, he enters his first World Cup after a difficult campaign at club level. Can he rediscover his form heading into Brazil?
Italy can survive if he does not—Ciro Immobile has looked impressive in warm-up friendlies—but it remains clear that the Azzurri have an extra dimension to their play when Balotelli is in top gear.
Balotelli can bully defenders and open up the game with his combination of physical power and technical precision, while he is an emphatic finisher when in the groove.
At international tournaments, games (and groups) can be decided on such margins.
When Will Keylor Navas Produce His Best Performance?
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Costa Rica will not match up to their opponents in Brazil in many departments, but one area where they will not be lacking is between the posts.
Levante goalkeeper Keylor Navas has proven himself as one of the finest goalkeepers in Spain in recent seasons, a fantastic shot-stopper with good instincts and a command of his box.
Of course, there is only so much the 27-year-old can do on his own, and it remains unlikely that his heroics can enable Costa Rica to stun their more vaunted rivals and escape from the group themselves.
But it remains eminently possible that he can produce a string of phenomenal saves in one game, enough to potentially keep a clean sheet and earn his side a draw (or better) in one of their matches.
With Italy, England and Uruguay all scraping for supremacy, and expecting to pick up three points against Costa Rica, the game in which that clean sheet comes could have a decisive impact on the final standings.
Will the Heat in Manaus Be as Draining as Some Expect?
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Italy and England face each other in their first group game in Manaus, the Amazonian location where the concerns over the potential heat and humidity are the highest.
One thing is for sure, it is going to be a draining experience for all involved.
The question, however, is exactly how much of an impact will it make? Will the conditions stifle the attacking ability of both sides, leading to a dour 0-0 draw that (only adding to its likelihood) which would probably be gratefully accepted by each side?
Both sides then have only five days to recover, with England going into a potentially vital meeting with Uruguay in Sao Paulo. If the weather has a real impact, the Three Lions in particular could end up cursing the way the fixtures have panned out.
Can Roy Hodgson Find the Right Recipe for England?
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Roy Hodgson has already selected his 23-man England squad; now he just needs to get it to play.
The problem the head coach has is that there are a lot of potential combinations that could work, but he only has a limited time to discover, or work out, which of them will work.
Is Jordan Henderson the best partner for Steven Gerrard in midfield or should Frank Lampard and Jack Wilshere—or even James Milner—operate around the captain?
Can both Daniel Sturridge play in the same team or would Adam Lallana, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain or Raheem Sterling be better options in that role behind one lead striker?
All are issues Hodgson will have to ponder, under the pressure of knowing that the wrong decision could hasten England's departure. If he finds the right setup, England have the sort of energetic, inventive players who have all the tools to escape from the group.
But if he doesn't get it quite right, he could be further handicapping a side that is far from guaranteed to progress very far.
Can an Unlikely Name Hit the Ground Running?
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Both England and Italy have called up some inexperienced names to their squads for Brazil, and some of them look likely to force their way into the first-team reckoning by the time the tournament rolls around too.
Partly as a result of the lack of form of others, Italy are looking at Borussia Dortmund-bound Ciro Immobile as a potential striking option for them, while England could yet start Adam Lallana and Ross Barkley—an almost unthinkable prospect at the start of the season.
Uruguay, too, might call upon less familiar names, especially if Luis Suarez is ruled out (Abel Hernandez might step in).
Such late charges ahead of tournaments can go one of two ways, but how the likes of Immobile and Lallana fare could make the difference in close games.
Where Will Injuries Strike?
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Injuries are one of the many variables that international coaches can do little about, yet it is also one that could have a defining impact on a number of World Cup results.
If we accept that Italy, England and Uruguay are the three favourites to progress from Group D, then all three can see those hopes severely harmed by the wrong sort of injury in the wrong position.
England, for example, do not want an injury to disrupt what is a relatively settled (if not world-class) back four, especially in the full-back positions where the cover is questionable.
Similarly, the loss of Steven Gerrard in midfield or Daniel Sturridge and Wayne Rooney in attack would leave Roy Hodgson without a like-for-like replacement to call upon.
Uruguay and Italy also have issues of squad depth, while Costa Rica know they need their best 11 players to all be fit if they are to have the chance of causing an upset. Injuries could ravage those best-laid plans.
Can Andrea Pirlo Pull the Strings in His Final World Cup?
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Even at 35, there is perhaps no player in Group D with the same deftness of touch and sharpness of mind as Andrea Pirlo.
If this World Cup is to prove an attritional, energy-sapping campaign, then those skills could prove significant in games where the tempo falters and the defences lock down.
If Mario Balotelli was the difference for Italy at Euro 2012, as covered earlier, then it was only by a narrow margin from Pirlo. The conductor of the side, Pirlo's penalty winner against England—a nonchalant "Panenka" chip—served only to highlight the higher plane on which he was operating.
The question is whether the Juventus midfielder can reach that level again, especially when his advancing years could prevent him from maximising his influence on games that are likely to play into his hands somewhat.
If he can—and if Cesare Prandelli hits upon the right combination of players to slot around him—Italy will be an imposing threat, strong in defence and capable of retaining possession.
Yet, on the other hand, in the heat and humidity he could find games passing him by on what might well be his international swansong.
Can Oscar Tabarez Do It Again?
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Uruguay were one of the most successful sides of the 2010 World Cup, and their head coach Oscar Tabarez played a key role in that.
While other coaches were proving how easy it is to make a hash of international management, Tabarez kept things simple—organising a robust, confident lineup that played to the strengths of a prodigious attacking trio.
Four years on, the attacking trio is the same, although Diego Forlan might not be the threat he previously was. The rest of the team has a similar feel, too, with the likes of Maxi Pereira, Egidio Arevalo Rios, Diego Godin and Diego Lugano all returning from their impressive performances in South Africa.
That familiarity might bring stability, but it could also bring a staleness. This is a more functional side than 2010, with a dearth of the sort of inventive attacking midfielders that Italy and England can call upon to support their strikers.
The defence is ageing and could be exposed. But Tabarez is hugely experienced at this level—if he can channel that in the right way, it will give them a great platform to reach the knockout stages.
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