Potential First-Round Trade-Up Scenarios for the Denver Broncos

Tonight marks the first round of the 2014 NFL draft—finally! A day always known to hold at least a few surprises, several teams will look to trade up or down in an attempt to find the best value pick.

Last week, Denver Broncos Executive Vice President of Football Operations/General Manager John Elway hinted that the team would consider making a trade to find a first-round impact player on Broncos TV:

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“There are always…different trades that are going to be made, and so, we try to stay on top of that and try to get ourselves in the best position to get a football player that can come in and help us, especially in the first round.”

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At a pre-draft press conference on Monday, Elway insisted that the team is “ready for anything” when it comes to its draft strategy, including a first-round move. When asked about Denver’s likelihood to trade up in the draft, Elway said:

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“There’s always those options…We’re looking at moving up. We’re also looking at the possibility of moving back…until you get to draft day, you never really know what’s going to happen.”

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While moving up is a consideration, Elway also expressed his hesitance to make any major jumps, saying, “If you have to reach for certain guys, those are the guys that have the most potential to bust.”

Okay, so maybe the team isn’t really ready for anything. While it’s unlikely that we will see the Broncos brass trade up for a top-10 pick, there are some instant-impact players at positions of need likely not too far out of Denver’s reach.

With the second to last selection of Round 1, the Broncos may find themselves in a position to move up for one of their top draft targets. If such a scenario presents itself, there are three questions to be answered:

1)     Who will the Broncos trade for?

2)     Which teams are their most likely trading partners?

3)     And how much will it cost Denver to make the trade?

To determine the answers to these questions, let’s break down Denver’s biggest draft needs and the top prospects to best fill those holes. Then, let’s take a look at how far the Broncos would need to jump up in the first round to get those players and what it might cost them to get there.

Positions to Target

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Elway does not believe the team currently has any “huge holes” to fill via the draft. While several key offseason additions definitely helped cover the roster’s most glaring needs, there are still three areas that clearly need more attention—middle linebacker, cornerback and, to a lesser extent, guard.

After losing middle linebacker and team captain Wesley Woodyard to the Tennessee Titans in free agency, the Broncos need to add depth at this position. Fourth-year player Nate Irving is currently in line for the starting role. A decent player, Irving may be the weakest starter at his respective position on Denver’s defense.

At cornerback, Aqib Talib should sufficiently replace Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, now with the New York Giants. However, a severe postseason injury to Chris Harris and the release of Champ Bailey still leave major question marks in the secondary.

Offensive guard Zane Beadles joined the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. A healthy return from left tackle Ryan Clady should help ameliorate this loss, sending Chris Clark to right tackle and Orlando Franklin to replace Beadles—a sensible solution. Still, Denver may target a guard in the first round.

Players to Target

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Looking at Denver’s three areas of need, there are a few players in the draft who just might tickle the team’s fancy enough to trade up and grab them before the 31st overall pick.

Inside Linebacker: C.J. Mosley, Alabama

There’s significant scarcity of elite-level talent at inside linebacker in this year’s draft. Therefore, the consensus No. 1 prospect, C.J. Mosley, will likely come at a premium.

NFL draft lead writer Matt Miller places Mosley at No. 10 in his overall player rankings. Miller’s next-highest ranked player at the position, Chris Borland, is outside his top 50 players and the third, Yawin Smallwood, is outside his top 100.

Mosley is close to the total package at inside linebacker and would likely beat out Irving as the Broncos starter in 2014. He’s a versatile player who excels as a run defender and is solid in coverage. He’s highly intelligent, an effective tackler and an all-around playmaker.

Among draft experts, Mosley has been projected to go as early as pick No. 8 (Minnesota Vikings), per NFL.com, or as late as pick  No. 22 (Philadelphia Eagles), per Rotoworld.

Cornerback: Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State and Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

If Mosley goes off the board early, Denver will closely watch the cornerback position. There is a contingent of talented guys in this class whom draft scouts generally deem deserving of a first-round grade. Two players in particular, Justin Gilbert and Kyle Fuller, would fit well in the Broncos defense. Both are considered NFL-ready prospects and should go off the board before pick No. 31.

Matt Miller views Gilbert as a head above the rest of the 2014 cornerback class. A big guy known for his shutdown capability, Gilbert would serve as a worthy backup to the often banged up Talib or as a complementary starter across the field. Strong, quick and versatile—Gilbert is as close to a complete cornerback as there is in the draft.

Fuller, 6’0”, 190 pounds, is touted for his impressive press man coverage and open-field tackling ability. A team captain at Virginia Tech, Fuller is a smart player who has good instincts and ball-hawking talent. Not quite an all-around player like Gilbert, Fuller still should emerge as a competent NFL starter in his rookie season.

Offensive Guard: Xavier Su’a-Filo, UCLA

If Denver wants Su’a-Filo to fill its minor need at guard, the Bruins 2013 offensive MVP should be available at pick No. 31. Several “trade-free” mock drafts project Su’a-filo to the Broncos and he would be a nice addition to the team’s solid offensive line. Like the other players profiled here, Su’a-filo is athletic, quick, and should be able to jump right in and contribute as a rookie.

Potential Trade-Up Scenarios

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Assuming that Mosley, Gilbert and Fuller represent the Broncos three most likely targets for a first-round trade, Elway and Co. must determine the teams with which they should trade and what price they are willing to pay.

To predict Denver’s most likely trading partners, let’s use the Draft Pick Value Calculator, courtesy of footballperspective.com. With this handy tool, an expected trade value (ETV) is given to each draft pick, allowing teams to conveniently figure out the likely cost of a draft move.

For reference, here is a list of every Broncos 2014 draft pick and its corresponding value:

Round 1, pick No. 31 (ETV: 12.7)

Round 2, pick No. 63 (ETV: 8.2)

Round 3, pick No. 95 (ETV: 5.6)

Round 4, pick No. 131 (ETV: 3.6)

Round 5, pick No. 171 (ETV: 1.9)

Round 6, pick No. 207 (ETV: 0.6)

Round 7, pick No. 246 (ETV: 0.05)

Of course, teams may also use future draft picks as trade currency in the actual draft, but for simplicity’s sake, only this year’s picks are in play for the following trade scenarios. So, without further ado, let’s look at potential trades for Denver to draft Mosley, Gilbert and Fuller and the likelihood that the team pulls the trigger.

Trade Scenarios for C.J. Mosley, ILB

1. Dallas Cowboys, pick No. 16 (ETV: 16.9)

Broncos trade pick No. 31, pick No. 131 and pick No. 207 (ETV: 16.9)

Difference in expected trade value: 0.0

The first scenario offers perfect expected trade value! If Mosley falls to pick No. 16, Denver’s only guaranteed way to acquire Mosley is via a trade with Dallas. The linebacker-needy Ravens hold pick No. 17 and a slew of teams with a similar need follow, including Miami (pick No. 19), Arizona (pick No. 20), Green Bay (pick No. 21) and Philadelphia (pick No. 22). This would be a smart move for the Broncos to grab a high-impact player at a position of need; however, this trade may be too rich for Elway’s blood.

Likeliness Denver makes the trade: Somewhat likely

2. Cincinnati Bengals, pick No. 24 (ETV: 14.4)

Broncos trade pick No. 31 and pick No. 171 (ETV: 14.6)

Difference in expected trade value: -0.2

If Mosley somehow falls this far, Denver should feel obligated to move up. Swapping first-round picks plus a fifth-rounder to gain a potential starter and difference-maker on defense is a bargain too great to pass up. Trading with division rival Chiefs at pick No. 23 is another option, though Elway may prefer a trade partner outside the AFC West. Speaking of division rivals, the Chargers hold pick No. 25 and could definitely benefit from a player like Mosley. This is the most likely trade-up scenario for the Broncos.

Likeliness Denver makes the trade: Very likely

Trade Scenarios for Justin Gilbert, CB or Kyle Fuller, CB

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pick No. 7 (ETV: 22.2)

Broncos trade pick No. 31, pick No. 63 and pick No. 171 (ETV: 22.8)

Difference in expected trade value: -0.6

Considering this year’s cornerback draft class is fairly deep, it is unlikely that the Broncos would jump into the top-10 picks to grab a player like Gilbert or Fuller. Denver might only move up this far if Elway unexpectedly has a cornerback near the top of the team’s big board, and he’s just played possum with the media until now. To beat out the Vikings (pick No. 8) and Lions (pick No. 10), both with significant secondary woes, Denver would need to trade with Tampa Bay to secure its top cornerback. If the Bucs feel like they are in rebuilding mode, the team may be interested in stockpiling a few picks. Considering Mosley should still be on the board at this point in the draft, a trade of this caliber for a cornerback would be quite the shock.

Likeliness Denver makes the trade: Very unlikely

2. Baltimore Ravens, pick No. 17 (ETV: 16.6)

Broncos trade pick No. 31, pick No. 131 and pick No. 207 (ETV: 17)

Difference in expected trade value: -0.4

A more plausible trade scenario is one in which a top cornerback falls to the middle of the first round. But again, to give up such a bounty, the Broncos would likely need to be enamored with one specific cornerback. Considering Elway’s aforementioned belief that the team has no major holes to fill, this move seems like a bit of a stretch. A move here would prevent the Jets (pick No. 18) from grabbing a player to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they lost in free agency.

Likeliness Denver makes the trade: Somewhat unlikely

3. Arizona Cardinals, pick No. 20 (ETV: 15.5)

Broncos trade pick No. 31 and pick No. 131 (ETV: 16.3)

Difference in expected trade value: -0.8

With at least one cornerback probably off the board at this point, a trade with Arizona is a realistic move for Denver.  This could be Denver’s last chance to acquire Gilbert or Fuller with several teams looming that need a cornerback, such as the Bengals and Chargers. The Cardinals, viewed as a candidate to select a first-round quarterback, may take the chance to trade down to pick No. 31.

Likeliness Denver makes the trade: Likely

4. New England Patriots, pick No. 29 (ETV: 13.2)

Broncos trade pick No. 31 and pick No. 207 (ETV: 13.3)

Difference in expected trade value: -0.1

This is not the world’s sexiest trade, but it’s a no-brainer for Denver. If one of the Broncos’ favorite cornerbacks is still on the board here, Denver shouldn’t need to offer much to convince the Pats to fall back two spots. With the 49ers projected by some to select a cornerback one pick ahead of Denver, a small trade up could pay off.

Likeliness Denver makes the trade: Very likely