Breaking Down the Evolution of Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford has evolved into the Detroit Lions' franchise quarterback.

Mostly. Kind of. 

Confused? That's understandable. We all are when it comes to Stafford.

Much like his team, he has experienced bouts of greatness but hasn't been able to sustain them. It's been that way for most of his career.

But the main factor I want you to keep in mind while I run you through the different facets of Stafford's development is that he's only 25 years old. In NFL quarterbacking years, he's still a couple seasons short of his prime. 

Youth and a lack of repetitions are the two biggest reasons for Stafford's inconsistency. So take heart as we scour over his not-quite-finished evolution as a professional signal-caller. 

Just a side note before we get started: the 2010 season has been eliminated from most tables since Stafford only played in three games. But we'll get that to that in just a second.

Durability

I originally had this section labeled as "toughness," but I realized that wouldn't be quite accurate. 

Nobody questioned Stafford's toughness in his first two seasons—at least nobody without an agenda (like getting more clicks on their blog) and eyes.  

Stafford made his mark in the locker room and across the league with that gutsy performance on Nov. 22, 2009, against Cleveland, a game in which he threw a game-winning touchdown pass immediately after having his left shoulder destroyed on the previous play. With this move, he announced himself as a tough S.O.B. who will do whatever it takes to win. 

While nobody questioned Stafford's toughness, they lamented his lack of durability. He only played in 13 games over his first two seasons, leading to a "China doll" comment from one of his own teammates.

And national writers couldn't help but mention his injury-prone nature in the same breath as his limitless talent. He endured more hits from the media (Bill Simmons coined the nickname "Matthew Stafford If He Can Stay Healthy") than he did from opposing defenses.

Since then, Stafford has looked a bit more filled out, and he has stayed healthy due to better decision-making and pocket awareness. Oh, and not falling in a way that causes a freak injury is an important factor here, too.

In fact, since those two early seasons, Stafford hasn't missed a start, playing in all 45 games (and counting) since the start of the 2011 season. 

Accuracy

Now that we've dealt with the biggest (and non-warranted) knock of Stafford's early career, let's take a peek at the other: accuracy.

Year	Completion Percentage	Yards	Yards Per Attempt	Dropped Passes Percentage	Accuracy Percentage
2009	53.3	2,267	6.01	7.4 (3rd)	65.4 (24th)
2011	63.5	5,038	7.6	6.8 (7th)	74.7 (5th)
2012	59.6	4,967	6.83	6.7 (13th)	70.5 (20th)
2013	58.3	3,976	7.57	9.7 (1st)	72.3 (16th)

Stafford struggled with interceptions during his rookie season and then alternated between "he's putting it all together" and "what was that." But again, he's only 25.

This season has been a microcosm of his consistently inconsistent performance. He started out the season red-hot and was ranked in the top five for accuracy only a couple months ago. Then he was in the top 10 not even four weeks ago, but that's all changed. The game against Philadelphia in the snow can be tossed aside, but it still hasn't been an impressive month for Stafford, as he has thrown eight picks in four November games. 

When he looked in control earlier in the season, he didn't panic and only throw to Calvin Johnson. There's no way I can prove this, but Megatron had fewer of those how-in-the-world-is-that-possible catches this year than in seasons prior. 

The reason? Because Stafford is being smarter about his sandlot plays. He's more comfortable with the offense, thanks to being in the same system for four years, and he knows where other guys will be.

But lately, he's forcing the issue. 

The dropped passes from the receivers obviously don't help, since there's a hidden consequence there. Not only does a drop take away a completion, yardage and a possible score from the stat sheet, but it also creates a more difficult situation than the previous scenario. 

But that doesn't excuse Stafford. He's struggled with the most important non-mental part of being a quarterback: consistent accuracy.

Stafford has shown fans that he can put the ball anywhere. He's also demonstrated that leaning back and not stepping intro throws can lead to overthrows. 

I don't have the definitive answer regarding whether Stafford will become consistently accurate. I do know that he's still early in his development and has shown sustained flashes of brilliance.

Basically, he's capable.

Pocket Presence and Quick Thinking

The most improved statistic during Stafford's tenure has been "sacks allowed."

A lot of credit will go to the scouting department for helping Detroit land three current-day starters along the offensive line in recent drafts and for the signing of Rob Sims in 2010. But the main cause has been Stafford's ability to quickly diagnose where he's going with the ball and get it out of his hands.

Year	Avg. Seconds To Throw	Sacks Taken	Dropbacks	Sack Percentage
2009	N/A	23	416	5.52
2011	2.59 (5th)	36	755	4.77
2012	2.67 (8th)	29	776	3.74
2013	2.49 (5th)	15	549	2.73

As mentioned previously, I threw out the 2010 season since the sample size was only 102 drop backs. His 3.92 sack percentage was actually impressive, but there just isn't enough statistical information to make a point.

Besides, the rest of the stats tell the true story. With Stafford getting the ball out quicker and also knowing where to go with the ball, he's improved the sack allowed numbers of his club dramatically. And his numbers this year would have been better if he hadn't taken a season-high five sacks in Green Bay when the Lions didn't have Johnson.

Part of this success comes from being in the same offense for five straight years. The rest comes with the development of a legitimate NFL quarterback. 

Poise and Leadership

Stafford understands the gravity of the moment, but he isn't intimidated by it. He gets excited, but he doesn't let his emotions overrun his faculties.

That's how it was during his rookie year, and that's how it is now. In fact, experience has brought an even deeper understanding of how to win in the NFL.

The turning point where fans knew they could rely on Stafford late in games was Detroit's last-minute 2011 win in Oakland. Regardless of the situation, the Lions and their fans learned that they always had a chance to win with him under center.

Now, he's finding even more cunning ways to win the game.

Look at the Dallas game from this past October. In the waning moments of the game, he kept his team calm, found his big receivers for large gains and pinpointed a deep bomb along the sideline to Kris Durham that put the team in a great position to score. All of that would have been impressive on it's own.

But when he fake-spiked the ball and jumped over the offensive line at the goal line, just breaking the plane and scoring the game-winning touchdown, he rose to another level. That play combined the intelligence and cunning of Tom Brady (fake-spiked a touchdown pass to Randy Moss) and Drew Brees (has a patent pending on the extend-the-ball-over-the-goalline-and-bring-it-back move) into one magical, impromptu moment. 

That's some heady company.

Leadership, Too

The biggest difference between Stafford as a rookie and Stafford today is his leadership—but not the type described in so many words above.

Today's Stafford is leading by keeping people accountable.

Watch what happens when Stafford misses a throw or when he seemingly just throws it to the wrong place. When he yells at the receiver, he accompanies his words with a hand gesture to indicate where the player should have gone.

Stafford isn't just admonishing guys to get on the same page, he is correcting their mistakes so they won't make them again. It's the same thing we love about Brady and Peyton Manning.

Oh, and he's also stayed calm while dealing with the most dropped passes (51) in the league. That seems worthy of a quick mention.

Ball Security

Part of Stafford's charm is his gun-slinging ways. He can fit a ball into the smallest of openings, but that confidence also leads to picks. 

Year	Interceptions	Fumbles	Touchdowns	TDs to TOs
2009	13	4	20	20:17
2011	16	3	41	41:17
2012	17	3	20	1:1
2013 (First 8 games)	6	3	16	16:9
2013 (Last 5 games)	8	4	11	11:12

Throughout his first three years of major snaps, the one constant was that he threw interceptions. In 2011, he made it worthwhile by putting up 24 more touchdowns than picks, but he still had quite a few turnovers. 

But the beginning of this year felt different. That's why I split the 2013 season into two parts and watched every pick he's thrown this year.

And my guess was right: Stafford was a different quarterback during the first half the year.

Of the first six interceptions he threw this season, only one was his fault. The rest were tipped balls or should be blamed on the receiver mishandling it. 

Of the next eight, a staggering seven are on Stafford. He was forcing the ball, making ill-advised throws and just being reckless. 

Stafford had really evolved until the last four weeks or so saw him revert to some old habits. However, the first half of the season was an unquestionable testimony to just how good Stafford can be. 

Don't forget, he's only 25.