Projecting LA Clippers' Most Likely Playoff Seed

A new era began for the Los Angeles Clippers on December 14, 2011.

That was the day the Clippers acquired Chris Paul from the New Orleans Hornets. Two seasons and two postseason flame-outs later, the team hired Doc Rivers to help get the team over the hump. Rivers has his team playing like a juggernaut offensively, but postseason success is all that matters now, especially seeding.

Having been put through the ringer the past two seasons by facing the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, the organization knows just how important regular season success is and how it dictates what kind of opening playoff series the team must go through in April.

But where are the Clippers most likely to be seeded? There is no doubt they do not want to see Memphis again. Following up on that question, how many wins will be required to host a playoff series? More importantly, how much does the defense need to improve to hit that win total?

I predicted the team would win 58 games this season, good for second in the Western Conference. Let’s take a look at how the team is performing on both sides of the ball, the remaining schedule and what that means for the Clippers’ playoff seeding.


Offense is the Key

Unit	Mins	Off	Def	+/-	W	L	Win%
Paul-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan	271.0	1.15	1.04	+59	9	5	64.2
Collison-Crawford-Barnes-Mullens-Hollins	19.0	1.00	1.08	-4	2	3	40.0

The Los Angeles Clippers look marvelous on offense. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have both ramped up their offensive contributions. Meanwhile, the addition of J.J. Redick has expanded their offensive threat beyond the paint and into the perimeter. Overall, the offense is playing extremely well, ranking second in offensive rating and points per game.

To make things even more fascinating, the once plodding offense that ranked 19th in pace under Vinny Del Negro is now fifth under Doc Rivers. Rivers can constantly be seen urging his guards to push the ball up the floor during games. This is not only having an impact on Chris Paul’s superb offensive numbers, but is also partially why DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin are combining for 5.2 more points per game this season, despite neither having improved at the free-throw line.

The offense looks sustainable, considering the Clippers finished fourth in offensive rating last season. The key will be whether or not Chris Paul can keep up his stellar play. If he and Griffin are able to play at this level, the Clippers look primed to host a first-round playoff series.


Defense is a Work in Progress

The expectations upon arrival were that Doc Rivers would implement his defensive system, tapping into the athleticism of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to improve the overall team defense. Both players look improved defensively, but the team numbers are depressing.

Although the team ranks 21st in defensive rating, and is giving up the fourth most points per game (103.3), progress is being made (per ESPN).

"

Doc calls it coach's porno, Clippers guard J.J. Redick said. The stuff that gets me excited is the multiple stops in a row, which we've been able to put together for quarters at a time like the first quarter against Sacramento, the third quarter at Houston, the third quarter at Orlando. We've had these quarters where we hold teams in the teens, and that's how our defense is supposed to look. If we can put that together for a whole game—and a whole stretch of games—we'll be rolling.

"

To illustrate what Redick is talking about, let’s focus on the team’s starting unit of Paul, Redick, Jared Dudley, Griffin and Jordan. The unit has played 181 minutes together and has a defensive rating of 103, which would effectively be nearly the same as the Miami Heat’s team defensive rating.

While nobody thinks the Clippers starters are capable of defending like the Heat, it shows where the starters stand relative to the bench. The unit of Darren Collison, Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, Byron Mullens and Ryan Hollins, has a defensive rating of 108, effective rating them similar to the New York Knicks and their 29th rated defense.


The Schedule

The Clippers currently sit at 10-5, fourth in the Western Conference and atop the Pacific Division. Unfortunately, the team is about to hit the road for a seven-game road trip with the vaunted Grammy road trip coming at the end of January.

The Indiana Pacers roll into Staples Center to begin the December slate before the team embarks on its first long road trip of the season. Fortunately, the Eastern Conference looks weak outside the top three or four teams. The combined record of the five Eastern Conference opponents the Clippers will face is a mere 24-47.

Last season the Clippers were able to rattle off a franchise record 17-game winning streak. While that seems unlikely, the Clippers are going to need all the wins they can get against teams from the East in order to pad their win total for playoff seeding.


Projected Playoff Seed

Much like my earlier projection, the Clippers are still on pace to claim the No. 2 seed out West. The offense looks like a well-oiled machine already, Chris Paul is playing at an MVP type level and Blake Griffin is back to his double-double ways.

Even if Paul’s play comes back down to earth in the coming months, the Clippers still have room to improve defensively. An improved defense will likely keep the Clippers as one of the top teams in the conference and should also help cover any letdown offensively.

The Clippers look like they could be a 50 win team again this season, which would likely guarantee them a home playoff series. While 58 wins look unlikely, barring another long winning streak, the Clippers look like one of the elite teams in the Western Conference.

All statistics courtesy of basketball-reference as of November 25, 2013