Jeremy Lin's Improvement More Early-Season Fluke Than Long-Term Indicator

It's impossible to evaluate who Jeremy Lin is without juxtaposing it with how he was introduced. When a player literally comes from obscurity and becomes an international sensation—a rarity in basketball, arguably the easiest sport to identify talent at a young age—the comparisons become necessary even when overwrought.

So let's get this out of the way now.

Jeremy Lin will never reach the same "stardom" height he did in those special couple weeks with the New York Knicks. He's not talented enough to be the No. 1 option on a team in the National Basketball Association, and it's highly unlikely he'll make an All-Star team unless it's thanks to some ballot-stuffing from the cabal of NBA fans in China.

But that's just fine. Because the player Lin has been this season can be a legitimate piece to a contender now and going forward.

Heading into Monday night's contest in Memphis, the Rockets are still a team very much so trying to figure itself out. Kevin McHale is still figuring out his big rotation, with Dwight Howard performing well but unspectacularly and Omer Asik looking for the nearest exit. The guard rotation has also been a bit in flux, with James Harden and Patrick Beverley both missing time with injury. Houston, though dealing with a myriad of problems both big and small, is still off to a 9-5 start and is firmly entrenched in the Western Conference's clouded playoff picture.

Still, Lin in many ways has been the Rockets' most pleasant surprise. No, unfortunately, it hasn't been on the defensive side. It seems that no matter how hard he tries, Lin's going to be a minus on that end. He still struggles with basic court awareness and doesn't have the athleticism to recover against opposing point guards.

But he's been sensational offensively. 

A season after undergoing scrutiny for failing to live up to the aforementioned Linsanity hype, the 25-year-old guard looks more comfortable than ever in his NBA skin. He's moved to the bench in favor of the defensive bulldog Beverley but is still averaging a career-high 16.5 points per game while improving his shooting splits across the board.

He's hitting more than 6 percent more of his field goals (50.7 compared to 44.1) and has become a suddenly above-average three-point shooter. Lin ranks 15th in the NBA in true-shooting percentage, sitting one spot behind Splash Brother Klay Thompson. While the Rockets are better on both ends of the floor with Lin on the bench, it's unfair to criticize him too harshly, seeing as he's spending much of the time propping up second-unit players.

The question, as it is with all early-season trends, is whether Lin's improvement can last. The answer is murkier than one would think.

Lin is essentially playing the same game he always has. A good deal of his time on the floor comes as a primary ball-handler, where he looks to create for himself or Rockets teammates off the dribble. Houston likes to stagger his and Harden's minutes as much as possible to avoid redundancy issues.

According to the new SportVU technology, Lin possesses the ball for about four minutes per game, ranking just barely behind Harden for the most on the team.

The difference has mostly come from a spike in efficiency, one that I'm not sure he can keep up over the long sample. 

Let's start with the most obvious area of regression: the restricted area. In the two seasons where Lin was relevant to the NBA at large, he shot 55.3 percent from the restricted area. This year he's making 77.3 percent, the fourth-highest rate in basketball among players who have attempted at least 20 shots from that area. He's been better in the past at allowing the lane to develop before barreling into the paint, but plenty of Lin's attempts still look like this:

Those are the types of baskets Lin is getting to fall that won't last throughout the course of a season. And it's amazing just how much of a difference that can make. If Lin were making the same percentage of buckets in the restricted area he has the past two seasons this year, that change alone would take him down to 43.8 percent shooting on the season.

That's not necessarily to say all of Lin's makes in the paint are flukes. He's doing a nice job of recognizing situations and has been far smarter with his shot selections this year. It's just important to note just how much a sample can swing at this point in the year based on one or two results. If Lin weren't finishing like LeBron at the rim, this column wouldn't need to be written; we probably wouldn't be talking about him.

Same thing goes for Lin's improvement from beyond the arc. He owes nearly 40 percent of his made three-pointers this season to his masterful 34-point, 12-assist outing in the Rockets' overtime loss to the Sixers on Nov. 13. Take out that game, and Lin is a 34.1 percent three-point shooter—two-tenths better than what he was last season.

To be fair, I took out Lin's worst game as well and came up with a 37.1 percent rate. That's still an improvement—one enough to make Lin an above-average shooter from deep—but, again, it speaks more to something that will correct itself as the season progresses. Lin again fancies his favorite spot beyond the arc on the right side above the break and takes one of the highest percentage of shots from that area in the league. The Rockets like having him sit in that area when he's on the floor with Harden, which has resulted in some shots like this:

For the season, Lin is averaging just more than three catch-and-shoot opportunities per game, and he's making exactly half of those shots, per SportVU. If you're looking to parse positives into this narrative, perhaps that's the best way to look at it. Lin is making 39.2 percent of his jump shots this season, compared to 31.8 a season ago. 

It's very possible that improvement is real. Lin looks far more comfortable as a spot-up shooter than ever before. Last season, Lin would hesitate before taking outside jumpers and look to pass out of situations.

Now he's just catching and shooting. Lin should get more of those opportunities as Houston jells. Teams still double Howard despite his deficiencies in the post this year, and Harden is arguably the best attacking guard in basketball.

As a rule, that means open shots for shooters.

At their best, the Rockets' will whir the ball around the perimeter, make the extra passes necessary and find the right guy for the shot. Emphasizing that part of his game is likely the easiest route to sustaining his solid start. Lin is still a miserable jump-shooter off the dribble—he's making 27.8 percent of his pull-up J's this year, which is among the worst rates in basketball—which could lead to a downturn once the difficult layups stop dropping.

For now, though, it's safe to say the Rockets will be perfectly satisfied with the way Lin is playing. Just don't go around expecting Linsanity 2.0 to last much longer.

*All stats via NBA.com unless otherwise noted.

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