Patriots vs. Panthers: Who Has the Edge at Every Position?
NFL fans will get a dandy of a Monday Night Football this evening when the streaking 6-3 Carolina Panthers host the 7-2 New England Patriots in one of the most compelling intraconference battles of the 2013 season.
After an embarrassing 1-3 start, the Panthers are winners of five straight. And despite the Patriots' early-season struggles, they've won three of their last four and sit comfortably on top of the AFC East standings.
Carolina is riding a wave of momentum into this showdown with New England, having just upended the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 10.
Tom Brady's squadron is fresh off a much-needed bye and is fighting for playoff positioning.
Let's determine which team has the advantage at each position.
Quarterback
1 of 12
If this assessment was based on career achievement, the Patriots would hold an astronomical advantage at the quarterback position. Even if Cam Newton and Tom Brady were compared since the start of 2011, when the Panthers signal-caller entered the NFL, the Patriots would have the edge.
But based on this season alone, the Panthers head into this Monday Night Football showdown with the better quarterback.
Seriously.
Although Brady has thrown for more yards, Newton's completion percentage is near six percentage points higher. The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 7.27 yards per attempt, while Brady is averaging a pedestrian 6.64 yards per attempt. Each has thrown 13 touchdowns, and Brady has tossed six interceptions to Newton's eight.
However, graduating to more advanced statistics, Newton's been more accurate. His Pro Football Focus accuracy percentage (subscription required)—a metric that discounts drops, batted passes, throwaways and times in which a quarterback is hit as he's thrown in an attempt to find true accuracy—is 74.4. Brady's is 68.7
When under pressure, Newton has an accuracy percentage of 71.2, the third-best in the league behind Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. Brady's is only 56.5, the ninth-worst out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks.
Factor in Newton's running abilities—63 carries, 266 yards and four touchdowns—and, surprisingly, the Panthers have the "better" quarterback tonight.
Advantage: Panthers
Running Back
2 of 12
As a team, the Patriots average a respectable 4.4 yards per carry, while the Panthers average only 3.9 yards per carry.
Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams is running at a 4.2 yards-per-carry clip on 135 attempts, and the underrated Stevan Ridley is running at a yards-per-carry rate of 4.4 on 118 carries.
In the two games he's played since returning from the IR/designated for return list, Jonathan Stewart has totaled 84 yards on the 22 attempts he's received. Meanwhile, the hefty Mike Tolbert has 213 yards on 59 carries with four touchdowns this season.
Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Patriots are expected to get back multifaceted running back Shane Vereen—a guy who should increase the efficiency New England gets out of its backfield.
Although each club has a high-profile quarterback, both teams are dedicated to running the football and both get solid contributions from their runners.
New England doesn't have a distinct advantage at this position, but its stable of Ridley, Vereen, Brandon Bolden are LeGarrette Blount is better than what Carolina will line up behind or next to Newton.
Advantage: Patriots
Wide Receiver
3 of 12
Neither the Patriots nor the Panthers have an especially intimidating receiving corps, but Steve Smith will be the best wideout on the field tonight.
Still, Danny Amendola is pesky and certainly productive when he's not nursing an injury. And coming off the bye, the former St. Louis Ram should be the healthiest he's been all season.
Amendola caught four passes for 122 yards with a 57-yard touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 9.
Beyond those two, Brandon LaFell has been outperformed statistically by Julian Edelman this year, which, to a certain extent, was the product of the situation Edelman found himself in early in the season.
Ted Ginn has been a pleasant surprise in 2013, and, like Aaron Dobson, is the "No. 3" on his respective team.
At this point, though, Edelman is more trustworthy than LaFell and, over the last two games, Dobson (nine catches, 190 yards and three touchdowns) has been more explosive and reliable than Ginn (three receptions and 29 yards).
Advantage: Patriots
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Tight End
4 of 12
Unless they're playing the New Orleans Saints, the Patriots will always have a clear advantage at the tight end position.
Rob Gronkowski is healthy and has returned to form after returning from injury a month ago. In the three games he's played for New England this year, the reigning All-Pro has snagged 19 passes for 284 yards with one touchdown.
The Panthers' Greg Olsen is no chump, as the former first-round pick has 35 receptions for 440 yards and four touchdowns this season. But he's not even close to the matchup nightmare Gronkowski is.
Advantage: Patriots
Offensive Line
5 of 12
Both the Panthers and the Patriots have endured serious injuries on their offensive lines.
Carolina guards Amini Silatolu and Garry Williams are on IR, as is swing tackle Bruce Campbell. New England lost starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer for the year after he suffered a broken leg in Week 8's win over the Miami Dolphins.
But the Panthers have withstood their injuries a bit better than the Patriots have.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) currently has Carolina rated as the third-best pass-blocking offensive line and the second-best run-blocking unit. New England's not far behind as the No. 10 and No. 13 offensive line in those respective categories.
This season, Brady has faced pressure on 34.1 percent of his dropbacks compared to 37.4 percent for Newton, per PFF. But the collective group of Jordan Gross, Travelle Wharton and Ryan Kalil trump the Patriots' trio of Nate Solder, Logan Mankins and Ryan Wendell, though Solder will be the best offensive lineman in this game.
Advantage: Panthers
Defensive Line
6 of 12
The defensive line has become the unquestioned strength of the Panthers. Greg Hardy, Star Lotulelei, Charles Johnson and Kawann Short all have overall PFF grades higher than plus-2.0, and that foursome has combined for 17 sacks and 119 total pressures on 675 total pass-rushing snaps this season.
That means that for every 5.67 passing plays, one of those four defenders has either hit, hurried or sacked the opposing quarterback.
Conversely, the Patriots only have two available defensive linemen currently sporting a positive PFF grade: Rob Ninkovich and Isaac Sopoaga. Those two, Chandler Jones and Chris Jones have combined for 20 sacks but only 89 quarterback pressures on 918 pass-rushing snaps. They've hit, hurried or sacked the opposing signal-caller every 10.31 passing plays.
As a team, Carolina allows 3.8 yards per rush. The Patriots allow 4.3.
This one's obvious.
Advantage: Panthers
Linebackers
7 of 12
The Panthers' Luke Kuechly will be one of the three best players in this game, and his linebacker mate Thomas Davis won't be that far behind him. Both are rated in the top 10 at their position in PFF's ratings and play more than 95 percent of the defensive snaps.
Though a different type of linebacker than Kuechly, Brandon Spikes is a downhill thumper who'll make his presence felt against the run often. He's currently PFF's highest-rated run-stopping inside linebacker.
Dont'a Hightower is similar to Spikes in that he excels against the run, but due to his larger frame, he isn't that fluid or comfortable in coverage.
Kuechly, Davis, Spikes and Hightower will provide a treat for those who love watching impactful linebacker play; however, the Panthers get the slight nod here.
Advantage: Panthers
Cornerbacks
8 of 12
According to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, Patriots cornerback Aqib Talib is "expected to play" against the Panthers. The physical veteran has been tremendous this season, and his plus-8.2 overall PFF grade has him ranked No. 11 at his position.
On the other side is Kyle Arrington; he's certainly not a shutdown defensive back, but he's also far from a liability. Per PFF, he has nine defended passes this season. Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan do get picked on occasionally, but they're both very active.
For the Panthers, Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn have played much better than many expected, both with positive PFF grades at this point. The disruptive nature of Carolina's defensive line has helped those two experienced corners a great deal this year.
Advantage: Patriots
Safeties
9 of 12
Quintin Mikell doesn't get much publicity, but for the second year in a row, he's been a stalwart defender for Carolina. He's currently PFF's No. 14 safety after finishing at No. 5 last season.
Robert Lester played in Mark Barron's shadow while at Alabama, but he and Mike Mitchell have been fine complementary contributors on the back end of the Panthers defense. The three safeties formulate one of the most sound safety contingents in the NFC.
For the Patriots, Devin McCourty has morphed from an inconsistent cornerback into an elite safety. He intercepted five passes in 2012 and has one pick this season with two forced fumbles, six defended passes and 50 total tackles, per ESPN.
Alongside him was Steve Gregory, an underrated safety with a well-rounded game, but he injured his thumb against the Steelers in Week 9 and likely won't play Monday night, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Third-round pick Duron Harmon, who's been impressive in limited action this season, should see most of Gregory's snaps.
McCourty will be the most complete safety in this game, and the most threatening ball hawk, but the Panthers have much more depth.
Advantage: Panthers
Kicker
10 of 12
A relative toss-up between two steady kickers, Stephen Gostkowski has made a slightly better percentage of his field goals (95.7) than Graham Gano (92.9) has this season.
Both are among the best in terms of percentage of touchbacks on kickoffs.
Advantage: Patriots
Returners
11 of 12
Julian Edelman is one of the most efficient punt returners in the game, but the Patriots are near the bottom of the league in kickoff return average.
Meanwhile, Ted Ginn has been fairly productive on kick and punt returns and is much more explosive than Edelman.
Advantage: Panthers
Overall
12 of 12
Overall Grades
- Quarterback—Panthers
- Running Back—Patriots
- Wide Receiver—Patriots
- Tight End—Patriots
- Offensive Line—Panthers
- Defensive Line—Panthers
- Linebacker—Panthers
- Cornerback—Patriots
- Safety—Panthers
- Kicker—Patriots
- Kick Returner—Panthers
Panthers: 6, Patriots: 5
Prediction: Panthers 27, Patriots 24
Both teams will be able to move the ball throughout the evening, but Tom Brady will face pressure more often. That will lead to many incompletions and maybe a few interceptions, though the Patriots will likely utilize their short passing game for most of the night.
While the Panthers might show some jitters early, they'll settle down in the second quarter and will ride their defense in the second half as Brady mounts an ultimately unsuccessful comeback.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
