College Football Rankings 2013: Projecting Week 13's Top 25 Teams

Week 12 doesn't have the same, national title-altering matchups as Week 11, but all throughout the country, a number of intriguing games could throw a wrench in the rankings.

Stanford travels to USC for a battle between two of America's best defenses, Auburn hosts Georgia with a chance to prove its legitimacy and Miami could help decide the ACC Coastal with a road game at division co-leader (in the loss column) Duke.

How weird is that last one to say?

Earlier in the week, on Wednesday evening, Ball State and Northern Illinois square off in a game that could decide the fate of the MAC—along with altering the fate of one BCS at-large spot.

How will it all shake out? Here's a look at what Week 13's rankings might look like once the dust has settled.

Note: Predictions are for the AP Poll, not the BCS Standings.

Dropped from Rankings

Northern Illinois 

NIU has quietly struggled a little bit at home this season, beating FCS Eastern Illinois and woeful Akron by 11 points combined. Unless the Huskies play drastically better Wednesday night, Ball State is good enough to make them pay.

Miami 

Miami is a better team, on paper, than Duke, but the Hurricanes are in a tailspin, and the Blue Devils are on a hot streak. On the road, Miami will need a heroic effort from QB Stephen Morris to win. Talk about two ships sailing in opposite directions.

Texas 

The Longhorns might put up a valiant effort against Oklahoma State in Austin this week, and the game might be contested for all 60 minutes. But at the end of the day, OSU has too much firepower in the rushing game and a defense that might give Case McCoy a lot of trouble.

25. Duke

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Miami

Duke, if it beats Miami, will have stoked enough public sentiment to crack the AP Top 25 for the first time this season—and the rewards might not end there.

If Clemson beats Georgia Tech Thursday night, Duke would control its own fate in the ACC Coastal Division by virtue of its head-to-head victory on the road against Virginia Tech. How wild is that?

The Blue Devils would still need road wins at Wake Forest and North Carolina—the latter of which would be very tricky—but they could realistically be the team tasked with beating Florida State in the conference championship game.

24. UCLA

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Washington

UCLA is not a bad team—not by any stretch of the imagination.

But the Bruins are running into a deceptively good opponent this weekend, and I don't think they will emerge unscathed.

Quarterback Brett Hundley has the potential to be one of the best quarterbacks in America, and on some nights, he lives up to that hype. But on other nights, his play leaves a lot to be desired.

Against a Washington team that outgained Stanford by 210 yards in Palo Alto earlier this year, his play could be the key to avoiding a minor home upset.

23. Oklahoma

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Iowa State

Iowa State should provide a soothing tonic for Oklahoma, which just got battered, on national TV, against Baylor in Waco.

The Cyclones have shown pluck in a couple of Big 12 games this season, but those, for the most part, have come at home. On the road, things have been different; they've been outscored 112-14 in their last two games, against Baylor and Kansas State, respectively.

OU is looking for offensive answers right now, and it doesn't appear to have a clear path to a conference championship. But Bob Stoops knows how to coach his team up, and it will take out some major frustration on ISU this weekend.

22. Washington

Week 12 Opponent: at UCLA

Washington in undefeated outside of one awful three-game stretch in the middle of the season that saw them lose consecutive games against Stanford, Oregon and Arizona State.

The Cardinal, Sun Devils and Ducks rank third, sixth and seventh, respectively, in the Football Outsiders F/+ ratings, though, which suggests that the Huskies might be (much) better than their three-loss record indicates.

With that stretch behind them, Keith Price and Bishop Sankey should be able to find a decent amount of success against UCLA's defense. Plus, the Bruins have been a little inconsistent moving the football against good defenses, and Washington has one.

This feels like an upset.

21. Ball State

Week 12 Opponent: at Northern Illinois

Ball State stands poised to end Northern Illinois' MAC dominance Wednesday evening, providing the Huskies with their stiffest competition of the year.

Keith Wenning and Co. have looked very good on the road this season, where they have already beaten an ACC team (Virginia) by three touchdowns and won all of their conference games by a similar margin.

If not for an early-season slip-up against North Texas, they would be the ones threatening to crash the BCS, not Northern Illinois. I think the Cardinals will play to make a statement Wednesday and leave DeKalb with a hard-earned win.

20. Arizona State

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Oregon State

Oregon State has been fantastic on the road this season, beating Utah in Rice-Eccles Stadium—something Stanford (and almost ASU) was incapable of—and winning all three of its other games away from Corvallis.

But the Sun Devils are on a mission right now, and they appear to have much more at stake than the Beavers. There's a (very) realistic scenario for ASU to essentially lock up the Pac-12 South this weekend.

If Washington beats UCLA, Stanford beats USC and Arizona State beats Oregon State, the Sun Devils would have a two-game lead in the loss column with games at UCLA and vs. Arizona remaining.

Todd Graham's team will not take that lightly. Look for it to protect home turf in a major way.

19. LSU

Week 12 Opponent: Bye

LSU will drop one spot during its bye week—not by some sort of punishment, but because one of the teams currently behind it is poised to make a big statement.

The Tigers petered out in the second half against Alabama last week, but few teams in the country are capable of doing what they did in the first half, punching the mighty Crimson Tide in the mouth and controlling the ball.

This is still one of the better teams in America, although the lack of cohesion on defense is starting to become a major concern. Next week's game against Texas A&M might be a shootout.

18. Georgia

Week 12 Opponent: at Auburn

Georgia is slowly starting to get healthy, and even though it's far from full strength, Aaron Murray has enough magic left in the tank to engineer a road win at Auburn.

In order to do so, the Bulldogs will need to control the clock and keep Auburn's offense off of the field. Todd Gurley needs to get a Tyler Gaffney-esque work load, plowing forward on first and second down to set up a short conversion on third.

If it can do that, UGA can frustrate a one-dimensional Auburn offense, which isn't used to having to play catchup. Nick Marshall might remember Georgia's secondary scheme from his days as a member of it, but that doesn't mean he has the arm talent to exploit it.

Bulldogs in a squeaker that shakes up the SEC race.

17. Louisville

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Houston

Louisville wants to make a statement this week in hopes of proving that its loss to Central Florida was a fluke, not an indictment.

The Knights needed a goal-line stand at the end of the fourth quarter to beat Houston at home last week, which essentially wrapped up the AAC title but didn't leave the strongest impression in the minds of voters.

If Teddy Bridgewater can dissect the Cougars defense—which won't have much in the tank after giving such a valiant effort at UCF—he can make the Cardinals look much better by comparison.

I like Louisville big in this one, but in the grander scheme of things, it won't do the Cardinals much good.

16. Auburn

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Georgia

You don't need to be bad to be overrated, a distinction the Tigers exemplify to the fullest in 2013.

This is a very good team, that much is for certain. But it is not the seventh-best team in America, and Georgia stands poised to make that clear Saturday.

Auburn's biggest advantage in this game might be Jordan-Hare Stadium, which should be as loud as ever in hopes of propelling the team to a win. Against a lesser, more inexperienced quarterback, that might ultimately swing the game in AU's favor.

But Aaron Murray seems to break a new SEC passing record every weekend. He is not a lesser, inexperienced quarterback. I'm not ready to stop banking on him.

15. Wisconsin

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Indiana

In true Wisconsin fashion, the Badgers scored a hugely impressive home win over BYU last Saturday, but no one in the country seemed to notice.

Gary Andersen has done a marvelous job is his first year, scouting his personnel and continuing to run the ball down teams' throats, despite the fact that he ran a different style at Utah State.

With James White and Melvin Gordon in the backfield, Joel Stave getting better each game at quarterback and a typically physical Wisconsin defense, this team looks just as strong now as it did during the Bret Bielema era.

Indiana is about to get blown out.

14. Fresno State

Week 12 Opponent: Bye

Fresno State impressed for the first time in what seems like a long time Saturday, beating Wyoming with ease on the road.

In the Mountain West Conference, which is having a bad year, that will have to suffice as a quality win. The shaky Bulldogs defense looked good against Brett Smith, a quality quarterback, which has to make Fresno fans feel at ease.

The team doesn't play in Week 12, but what happens this week is still of the utmost importance. If, as predicted, Northern Illinois loses to Ball State, the Bulldogs' path to a BCS bowl becomes far less muddled.

13. UCF

Week 12 Opponent: at Temple

Central Florida dodged a bullet against Houston last week, stuffing the Cougars with a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter that might have saved its season.

From here, though, the sailing is smooth, with games against just Temple, Rutgers, South Florida and SMU remaining. There doesn't appear to be any potential loss on that schedule, so unless Blake Bortles and Co. fall asleep at the wheel, they should make a BCS bowl.

The bigger question is how high they'll climb. If UCF finds a way to pass Fresno State and/or Northern Illinois in the BCS rankings, it stands a chance of blocking those teams from busting the BCS.

12. Michigan State

Week 12 Opponent: at Nebraska

Nebraska appears to have fate on its side in the battle to win the Big Ten Legends.

Had the Huskers not beaten Northwestern on a last-second Hail Mary, Michigan State might have essentially clinched the division a couple of weeks ago.

Alas, the Hail Mary happened, and now Sparty must travel to Lincoln for a de facto division championship game that might determine which team plays Ohio State in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Weird things happen in Lincoln, so Michigan State should proceed with caution. But it has been the better team all season, and there is no reason to expect that to stop Saturday.

11. Oklahoma State

Week 12 Opponent: at Texas

Oklahoma State went through the motions in a win over Kansas last week, but now comes the hard part of its season—the home stretch.

Despite the ugly stain of an early-season loss at West Virginia, the Cowboys control their own fate in the Big 12, sitting one game back of Texas and Baylor in the loss column but having both teams left on the schedule.

If OSU beats the Longhorns in Austin this week, it simply needs to protect home turf the final two weeks in order to win the conference and make a BCS bowl.

But with Baylor and Oklahoma coming to Stillwater, protecting home turf will be far less simple than it sounds.

10. South Carolina

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Florida

The Gators are in a season-long tailspin right now, and with players continuing to drop like flies with injuries, there might not be a better time for South Carolina to catch them.

Florida might come out with a vengeance here, playing to save its season. By virtue of last week's loss at Vanderbilt, the Gators need to beat either South Carolina or Florida State to become bowl eligible.

But the Gamecocks have plenty to play for, too, especially considering the strength of Missouri's remaining schedule. South Carolina will come out with equal motivation and should be good (read: healthy) enough to make quick work of the Gators.

9. Texas A&M

Week 12 Opponent: Bye

Like next week's opponent, LSU, Texas A&M gets a bye in Week 12—a chance to rest up, lick its potential wounds and game-plan for a very important outing.

Despite pronounced defensive struggles, the Aggies still stand poised to make a BCS bowl by virtue of the strength of their two losses. Both Alabama and Auburn are ranked in the BCS Top 10.

Johnny Manziel is dragging this team toward glory, but he struggled against LSU's (much better) defense last season, and the Tigers have enough offensive firepower to torch A&M's defense in Baton Rouge.

He'll need to have a career game to win in Tiger Stadium.

8. Clemson

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is the second-best team Clemson has played since the start of September, and even though the Tigers should be able to take care of business at home, they'd be wise not to take Paul Johnson's team lightly.

The Yellow Jackets are playing for a potential ACC Coastal championship and the right to play Florida State in Charlotte. It's their only chance of making a BCS bowl, however unlikely that might be.

Weird things happen against triple-option teams like Georgia Tech, especially for a Clemson defense that is improved but still not great. The Tigers should win, but this one might be closer than people expect.

7. Missouri

Week 12 Opponent: Bye

Before the season, if you wanted to make a case for Missouri as a national sleeper, a big part of your argument would have been the projected emergence of Dorial Green-Beckham.

That hasn't gone according to plan for most of the year, but DGB broke out in a big way against Kentucky last week, hauling in four touchdowns en route to a 48-17 victory.

Missouri controls its own fate in the SEC, but with Ole Miss and Texas A&M looming, the Tigers will need as much offense as possible to remain in sole possession of the division lead.

Green-Beckham's big game needs to become a trend, not a fluke.

6. Oregon

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Utah

Utah catches Oregon at the worst possible time—though, really, is there ever a good time?—as the Ducks are angry and looking to take out some frustration on the next defense they see.

Coming off a humbling loss (to say the least) at Stanford, Marcus Mariota and the Oregon offense should come out firing on all cylinders and embarrass the Utes, who have fared far worse on the road than they have at home this year.

Even at Rice-Eccles Stadium, though, Utah gave up 51 points in a loss to Oregon State. Expect the Ducks to post a similar number...by the end of the third quarter.

5. Stanford

Week 12 Opponent: at USC

College Gameday will be in Southern California this week, and hopefully the added attention of that spotlight will prevent Stanford from falling victim to a letdown game.

The Cardinal are flying high after last week's dominant win over Oregon, but if they aren't careful in the Coliseum, they could come tumbling back down to earth.

USC's defense is nearly as good as Stanford's, and the offense is finally starting to heal up and play with some consistency. Lane Kiffin is gone, and this team loves to play for Ed Orgeron, his fiery replacement who has stoked a nice turnaround season.

The Cardinal are too good and too well-coached to lose here, I think. But don't be surprised if it's ugly—or if it takes all 60 minutes.

4. Baylor

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Texas Tech

This game looked much trickier a couple of weeks ago, when Kliff Kingsbury was leading a mini-renaissance in Lubbock and the Raiders were still undefeated.

Now that they've been thrice defeated, Baylor looks like a much safer bet to win, but it's still in no position to take its opponent lightly. That's exactly how Baylor screwed up Kansas State's perfect season a year ago.

If the Bears come out and play the way they're capable of playing, though, this should be a high-scoring affair and a fairly convincing win. Texas Tech's defense is bad—like, really bad—and Baylor's offense is the last thing a bad defense wants to face.

3. Ohio State

Week 12 Opponent: at Illinois

Ohio State continues to chug along, charting a course toward its second consecutive undefeated season but still needing some help to make the national title game.

The Buckeyes watched one domino fall in Palo Alto last Thursday, but unless Florida State or Alabama goes down, they will still be stuck on the outside looking in.

Urban Meyer can't let his team get preoccupied, though. All it can do is take care of business on a weekly basis, then pray to the football gods for some sort of divine intervention.

Coming off of a bye, Coach Meyer should have his team focused for a road game at Illinois.

2. Florida State

Week 12 Opponent: vs. Syracuse

Florida State continues to embarrass every team it faces.

Despite an "off" game from Jameis Winston, the Seminoles were up 52-0 after 37 minutes against Wake Forest, and they don't show any signs of slowing down. Have fun with that, Syracuse.

The bigger developments for FSU this week might come elsewhere, as the fate of the ACC Coastal could be decided in a number of other conference games.

No one in that division appears good enough to beat the Seminoles, but Virginia Tech, with its world-beating defense, probably has the best chance. Florida State would love to see Duke beat Miami.

1. Alabama

Week 12 Opponent: at Mississippi State

For any other team and any other coach, Saturday's game at Mississippi State—directly off of a rivalry win against LSU—would represent a prime spot for a letdown.

With Alabama and Nick Saban, that hardly seems possible.

The Crimson Tide reminded America why they are No. 1 against LSU last week, and they are likely to state a similar case against the Bulldogs. Saban always has his team laser-focused at this time of the season, so it will not overlook a scrappy opponent.

The Iron Bowl (at Auburn) and SEC Championship Game still loom, but for now, it doesn't look like anyone is going to beat Alabama.

At least not in the regular season.