Breeders' Cup 2013 Favorites: Projecting How Top Horses Will Finish
Ah, yes. It's getting to be that time, that time when you strap on your David Ortiz helmet and dive headlong into your racing forms and handicap until your now-protected dome hits the table.
Favorites win 33 percent of the time; that's a time-honored fact. Though I can't know for sure how well favorites fare in the Breeders' Cup, I somehow think it's lower than that. I could be wrong.
Here are a few slides looking at the favorites from a cross-section of races. Bet on them with care.
Wise Dan
1 of 10
Race: Breeders Cup Mile
Morning Line: Even
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
The Breeders' Cup Mile sets the table for the Breeders' Cup Classic as Race 11 on the card. Wise Dan is the defending Mile champion and the reigning Horse of the Year. He has an explosive turn of foot and has won nine of his last 10 races. That loss was his last effort in the Shadwell Turf Mile. However, it was rained off the turf, so he had an excuse for finishing second. Add to that he broke from Post 10, and it's all the more impressive he finished second.
Wise Dan was dominant a year ago in this race, and he figures to be one of the favorites you should feel comfortable singling in multi-race plays.
Havana
2 of 10
Race: Juvenile
Morning Line: 5-2
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
Todd Pletcher knows 2-year-olds, and Havana is about as good they come at this age. When he broke his maiden at Saratoga, he ran an unspeakable 102 Beyer Speed Figure. Every other horse will be playing catch-up to him. His precocity doesn't mean he'll be good in the future, but he's a beast in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field and should win easily.
Groupie Doll
3 of 10
Race: Filly and Mare Sprint
Morning Line: 5-2
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
Groupie Doll isn’t quite as sharp as she was when she won five graded stakes in a row, including the Filly and Mare Sprint. She ran into the talented Judy the Beauty in her last race at Keeneland. Moving back to dirt, Groupie Doll is still the mare to beat.
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Royal Delta
4 of 10
Race: Distaff
Morning Line: 8-5
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
Royal Delta has won the Distaff two years in a row, and she’s gunning for a third. She will, however, have her hands full when sparring with Princess of Sylmar for the second time. In the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park, Princess of Sylmar roared off the pace to beat Royal Delta by two lengths. This after Royal Delta toyed with her adversaries in the Delaware Handicap, when she won by 10 and three-fourths lengths, and the Personal Ensign, when she won by four and one-half lengths.
She will rise to this occasion, like she always does, and bury the hopes of those 3-year-old upstarts.
Point of Entry
5 of 10
Race: Turf
Morning Line: 4-1
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
It's amazing that a horse that hasn’t run since June 13 is a 4-1 favorite. That’s because he’s Point of Entry. He’s a winner of seven of his last eight races. His only loss was in this race on this Turf course a year ago to Little Mike. Point of Entry always comes roaring off the turn and kicks in with Swiss clockwork by his jockey, John Velazquez, to clip his winners at the wire. He’s been training well, and there’s no reason to think he can’t fire fast off the bench.
Also, he’s got the world’s greatest photobomb on his record.
Verrazano
6 of 10
Race: Dirt Mile
Morning Line: 3-1
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
No horse has been so brilliant and then so … average. He made waves through the Derby Prep cycles before laying an egg in the Derby as one of the favorites. Over the summer he was stunning in the Pegasus and Haskell then was positively terrible in the Travers. He lost only twice all year, but they were awful losses. He can’t go that long, but a mile? Now we’re in his wheelhouse. His training has been lights-out, and he appears to be ready to fire hot off the bench.
Ever Rider
7 of 10
Race: Marathon
Morning Line: 7-2
Projected Finish: 1st
The Breakdown
Ever Rider has what a lot of American horses lack: major distance preps. The Marathon, at one and three-fourths miles, will leave almost all of these horses gasping. Ever Rider has routinely run one-and-a-half miles and won his last time out at one and nine-sixteenth miles in Argentina. The Marathon isn’t a marquee race, but Ever Rider looks like a tough beat as the favorite. I like that he’s training well and hasn’t raced in five months. He’ll be fresh, and he’ll need his legs to win this.
Mizdirection
8 of 10
Race: Turf Sprint
Morning Line: 4-1
Projected Finish: Fourth
The Breakdown
Listen, Clones, she won this race last year. She us UN-believable. She is also owned by Jim Rome. She breaks from Post 12 in a turf sprint, so this puts her at a disadvantage. She likes to get to the front and will likely have to burn that energy just to get good position heading down the turf course. I’m liking other horses here. That draw was a bummer.
Private Zone
9 of 10
Race: Sprint
Morning Line: 3-1
Projected Finish: Third
The Breakdown
He exploded to a neck-win in the Grade 1 Vosburgh at Belmont Park, receiving a 108 Beyer Speed Figure for his work. He’s a speed ball. He goes to the front every time and sets fractions anywhere between 21 and 22 seconds. The sprint is a war. There is so much speed in here that a speed horse just won’t be able to hold out. A closer the likes of Justin Phillip will win this race.
Sweet Reason
10 of 10
Race: Juvenile Fillies
Morning Line: 5-2
Projected Finish: First
The Breakdown
Sweet Reason, a Juvenile Fillies runner, is one-for-two in Grade 1 company. She was the smashing winner of the Spinaway at Saratoga and was beaten just one and one-fourth lengths in the Grade 1 Frizette. There’s plenty of speed in this race for her to close into, and I fully expect her to do so.
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