Breaking Down the New York Jets' 2013 Playoff Chances

New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has reached a confusing status as a could-be backup with newly developed confidence.

The infamous butt fumbler is climbing new heights as the Jets prepare to play the Lions in the team's preseason opener on Friday. Sanchez told Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times this week that the Jets would turn things around in 2013, stating, "We'll get back on track, get a couple wins, and once we get in the playoffs this year we'll make a little run."

Sanchez's new-found charisma is better perceived as frightful arrogance. The former fifth overall pick is at the foundation of the Jets' ugly fall from Super Bowl contender to rebuilding project.

Any team's chances of making the playoffs always starts at quarterback. But quarterback is the most daunting question mark facing the Jets coaching staff because of Sanchez's extreme lack of efficiency.

Sanchez has completed just 55.1 percent of his career pass attempts.

The second-rate QB still supposedly "earned" the right to start in Detroit; however, a poor performance could promptly lead to his immediate demise as a starting QB in the NFL.

Week 1 of the preseason could be the final game Sanchez ever starts for the Jets.

It's insanely early to speculate on how the Jets will perform for the long haul in 2013, considering vast uncertainty at multiple positions on the depth chart. However, it's fair game to state that rookie Geno Smith likely gives the Jets the best chance to compete for a playoff berth.

Why?

Smith possesses greater athletic ability than Sanchez. He's a dual threat in the pocket and features the speed needed to escape sack-loss situations. He's efficiently learning how to operate the West Coast offense as a rookie.

In addition, he's impressed new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, despite slight regression earlier this week.

So, how do the Jets' playoff chances stack up if Smith is named the main signal-caller?

The key for making a playoff push always starts within the division. The Jets need to perform better against their AFC East rivals if they want to stand a realistic chance of upending the football world and earning a playoff berth.

The Jets finished 2-4 against the division in 2012. They lost their last four in-division games. In addition, the Jets were defeated by at least 19 points in each of their final three divisional contests.

It's easy to contend that the Patriots remain the best all-around team in the AFC East, despite significant player personnel losses.

Last season, the Jets were walloped at home against the Patriots on Thanksgiving in front of a national TV audience. That can't happen again if the Green and White are going to have a winning season.

The Jets also suffered a grisly defeat to the Dolphins at home in 2012. Miami is supposedly a team on the rise, but remains vastly unproven. The offseason departure of speed back Reggie Bush doesn't bode well for the Dolphins. They scored just seven more points on the season than the Jets' dismal offense.

The Bills arguably showcase the NFL's most explosive running back in C.J. Spiller. The electrifying cut-back slasher averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 207 attempts in 2012, surpassing 1,200 total rushing yards. The Jets were brutally deficient against the run last season, surrendering 133.6 yards per game on the ground. That should change in 2013, though, considering their revamped D-front.

The Jets need to win at least three divisional games in 2013 to sustain a realistic chance of earning a playoff spot. The team's schedule includes tough road matchups against the Falcons, Bengals and Ravens. The Jets will also host perennial playoff contenders Pittsburgh and New Orleans.

The first 12 weeks of the season look dispiriting on paper for the Jets, but the stretch run includes games against low quality opponents, like the Raiders, Panthers and Browns.

Overall, the Jets need to win at least nine games to have a chance at the postseason, a feat that Sanchez is likely incapable of accomplishing as the team's starting QB.

Sanchez has committed a disturbing total of 52 turnovers the past two seasons, fueling a demand for change under center.

An ugly season in 2013 tacked onto back-to-back dismal campaigns could lead to a prompt exit for head coach Rex Ryan. The Jets are 0-6 in the final three weeks of the past two seasons under Ryan.

The team is moving forward in spite of past failures, though.

Sanchez is ultimately a product of New York's downfall and isn't part of the solution. His ill-fated confidence is an outcome of the realistic possibility that he could never start another game for the Jets in the regular season.

A bad performance for Sanchez on Friday night, combined with a solid showing from Smith, could lead to a definitive change at quarterback for the Jets and improve the team's chances of making a run at a playoff spot.