2013 NBA Mock Draft: Updated Picks for Entire 1st Round After Lottery
While I'm not prone to superstition, it'd be hard to blame NBA general managers if they came donning bow ties to the 2014 draft lottery proceedings.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, again represented by the bow-tie-wearing Nick Gilbert, won the lottery for the second time in three years on Tuesday night after having the third-best shot heading into the festivities.
In 2011, Cleveland landed Kyrie Irving, a player whose merits many questioned at the time. Irving almost instantly blossomed into the superstar and franchise face we see today—a sign once again that we draft pundits don't always get everything right. (Sorry again about praising you for taking Derrick Williams, Minnesota.)
While the 2013 NBA draft is arguably the weakest since 2000, Cleveland will again be making a controversial selection at No. 1. With the draft's consensus top player, Nerlens Noel, there's an injury issue that could linger throughout the 2013-14 season. And with any other pick, there's the possibility that the team went too safe.
It's a conundrum that will shape the entire foundation of the first round. And with the draft combine starting the crystallization process with players' stocks, we can finally start to project forward with some real knowledge buoying our selections.
With that in mind, here is a complete breakdown of our latest look at the first 30 picks following the draft lottery.
All combine measurements are via ESPN's Chad Ford, as are the athleticism drills.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel (C, Kentucky)
While Tuesday night was one of celebration for the Cavs, they now have a momentous decision to make. Yes, Noel is on the board and he plays a relative need position. Anderson Varejao, though still very good when he's on the floor, is oft-injured and is on a different age trajectory than this core. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see his cheap contract be flipped this offseason.
Even if Noel isn't on the floor until New Year's Day 2014, Cleveland isn't competing for an NBA championship next season or likely in 2014-15. It can afford to wait. However, it seems like Dan Gilbert and Co. are getting a little antsy and might push the win-now button. According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, the Cavs will seriously explore trading the draft's top pick:
I'm not sold that they can get anything of momentous value. Noel is the consensus top pick according to just about every draft expect, but those pundits all understand there's a risk involved with drafting a 206-pound seven-footer who is coming off major reconstructive knee surgery.
Cleveland might be better off if it can't find an amenable trade. The last time the Cavs had a superstar, they panicked, built on a win-now foundation and watched the franchise crumble as that star took his talents to South Beach.
They've done it mostly the right way with Kyrie Irving, building with Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters over the past two drafts. Noel could be the final piece in a burgeoning young roster.
2. Orlando Magic: Ben McLemore (G, Kansas)
The Magic may have wanted the No. 1 pick, but they're probably just fine with Cleveland landing the top spot. The Cavs' two likeliest targets—Noel and Georgetown forward Otto Porter—play non-need positions for Orlando.
That means that the Magic will have their pick of the proverbial litter at guard, where they're expected take long, hard looks at McLemore, Victor Oladipo and Trey Burke.
At this juncture, McLemore and Burke are the two likeliest bets. Orlando desperately needs someone not named Jameer Nelson to lead its backcourt next season, and Burke became the default top point guard once Marcus Smart returned to Oklahoma State.
He has a real shot at going No. 2.
But McLemore gets the nod here, simply because he's the better player, both long-term and short-term. An elite athlete with a scintillating three-point stroke, McLemore is one of a select few players with All-Star potential in this class. He certainly needs to be more aggressive than he was at Kansas, but McLemore has the all-around talent to be one of the best 2-guards in basketball.
Burke, even if he reaches the very top of his potential, would have a tough time cracking the top 10 at the deepest position in the league (point guard).
3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter (F, Georgetown)
The Wizards were the biggest non-Cleveland winner of Tuesday night, and their reward should be a local kid who fits perfectly with their core. Porter played his college ball at Georgetown and is a perfect fit alongside John Wall and Bradley Beal, much like he would have been had Cleveland stayed in the three hole.
A legitimate 6'8" in shoes, Porter one of the smartest and most versatile players in this class. He's talented enough as a ball-handler to run the open break in a pinch and is intelligent enough of an off-ball mover and screener offensively that he can still be perfectly effective away from the ball.
Porter, an excellent wing defender, should fit right in with a squad that was quietly among the NBA's best defenses last season. Just a perfect fit.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Alex Len (C, Maryland)
If Michael Jordan could, I'm pretty sure he'd buy every ping-pong ball company on the planet and have the supplies destroyed. Charlotte seems to be not only perpetual losers on the floor, but also in the lottery. Last season, the Bobcats lost out on Anthony Davis, and this year, the board could work out in the worst way possible.
This scenario is that worst-case outcome. The best player on the board is Indiana's Oladipo. There has been an increasing buzz about Oladipo, who measured bigger than expected and showed off his freakish athleticism at the combine, going No. 1 overall.
He'll likely fall a bit after the lottery result simply because of fit, and that's precisely the reason Charlotte can't go within 10 feed of the best player available with its pick. The team just can't afford any more non-shooters when the core is currently comprised of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo—all basically useless jump shooters.
As such, the Bobcats are stuck here essentially with a choice between Len and UNLV forward Anthony Bennett. Both of these players are injured, just in case you needed any more proof that His Airness' franchise is snakebitten.
I'm sticking Len here, mainly because I think he's a better fit. He's a skilled seven-footer with touch around the basket—a guy who can step out and space the floor. Plus, Len isn't Byron Mullens. As long as he's some other human being—any other human being—than Byron Mullens, I'm sure Charlotte fans will be cool with the pick.
5. Phoenix Suns: Victor Oladipo (G, Indiana)
The Suns lost out on the lottery, but they may gain the type of franchise building block they're looking for. I've already noted Oladipo as a potential selection for other previous teams, so I'm not going to belabor the point too much.
But the more you see this kid work and the more you hear about him, the more deserving of top-five distinction he seems. At the very worst, Oladipo is going to be a Tony Allen-like defender who has enough athleticism to sell a few cars after winning a dunk contest. He's a marvelous athlete and has the type of lateral quickness you rarely see in a 2-guard.
If Oladipo finds true confidence in his mid-range game or develops some consistency as a spot-up shooter, he could be a cornerstone guy. With Phoenix being literally a blank slate franchise right now, that's good enough at No. 5.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Burke (G, Michigan)
Point guard isn't the most pressing need for the Pelicans—Greivis Vasquez led the NBA in assists this season, after all—but Burke would almost certainly represent too much value here to pass up.
The reigning National Player of the Year in college basketball will get consideration at No. 2 and would be a steal outside the top five. Though Burke is undersized and isn't the quickest player in this crop, he has the one thing that gives players longevity: craftiness around the basket. Burke finishes and finds open passes through holes only the truly special see, and he's an underrated shooter from outside.
The only other foreseeable scenario at No. 6 is New Orleans taking Anthony Bennett. That only happens if the team thinks Anthony Davis is a center long-term or that Bennett is a small forward long-term. The former is possible in today's NBA, while the latter would be a catastrophic mistake on the level of thinking Austin Rivers can play point guard.
Oh, right.
7. Sacramento Kings: Anthony Bennett (F, UNLV)
I've had Bennett heading to Sacramento for a number of weeks, and this still seems like the right spot. There are still a myriad of lingering questions about his still-raw post game, whether his bully tactics can work in the NBA and whether he gives a single damn about playing defense—all without mentioning his injured shoulder.
That makes him an untenable choice at No. 4 with Charlotte and even a risky one here for Sacramento. But the Kings are in a place as a franchise that they need to take the best player available and worry about everything else later.
There's no clear indication of who will be coming back next season once the new ownership group gets in place, and that's including players. This has been a roster begging for overhaul for years, and it may finally get a proper cleansing.
Bennett has star potential if he finds the right fit. Perhaps the new era of Kings basketball will be that fit.
8. Detroit Pistons: Shabazz Muhammad (G-F, UCLA)
Muhammad deserves credit for having the confidence to participate in drills at the draft combine. It's just too bad that he performed miserably in said drills and eventually decided to opt out rather than do any more damage later in the week.
It's a bit shocking that Muhammad's draft stock is down, because he actually participated in Chicago rather than sitting out like most other lottery picks. In fact, it's fair to say that the mainstream view of Muhammad as a disappointment in college has carried over resentment toward his professional prospects. Which, of course, is patently unfair.
So in the interest of being a contrarian, I'm keeping Muhammad where I had him pre-combine, mainly because it's still a great fit. The Pistons need a consistent scoring threat on the outside, and Muhammad is a good enough shooter and shot creator that he could lead all rookies in scoring.
Quite simply, the hate has gone way too far on this kid.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (G, Georgia)
Caldwell-Pope didn't perform up to expectations as a shooter at the combine, but his athleticism numbers were good. Viewed as a good but not great athlete at Georgia, Caldwell-Pope showed elite quickness and had acceptable numbers in the standing vertical and maximum vertical tests.
For Minnesota, though, the hope will be that Caldwell-Pope's shooting woes were an aberration. The Timberwolves were the league's worst three-point shooting team by a mile. And with a Ricky Rubio-Alexey Shved backcourt staring the team in the face, that problem isn't going to fix itself without some proactive moves.
Caldwell-Pope has great form on his jumper and hit very solid numbers from distance while shooting a high volume in college. He's not quite the riser many, including yours truly, thought he would be after the combine, but the fit still feels right here.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: Cody Zeller (F-C, Indiana)
Cody Zeller's draft sheet said many things before the combine. Elite-level athlete wasn't one of them until he wowed everyone in Chicago.
While there's still some questions about what position—center or power forward—Zeller will play at the next level, he fits a likely need for the Blazers. J.J. Hickson will hit the free-agent market this summer, and while Meyers Leonard is waiting in the wings, Portland's bench was one of the worst in recent memory this past season.
The versatility of Zeller, both as a potential bench replacement for LaMarcus Aldridge and as a starting center, will be awfully intriguing at No. 10. It's possible Portland goes in a different direction, but this scenario forces the team's hand a bit.
11. Philadelphia 76ers: C.J. McCollum (G, Lehigh)
McCollum impressed scouts by showing off strong athleticism at the combine—a sign that he's fully healed from the foot injury that cost him most of his senior season. That was a huge boost for most teams, as McCollum is viewed as a lottery pick mostly due to his prowess as a scoring threat—likely in a sixth man facility.
Philadelphia, having gone through a one-year Nick Young experience, is almost certainly ready for a new top bench scorer. And with McCollum having played college ball locally at Lehigh, it seems like too perfect of a fit for it not to happen.
Plus, he actually wants to play for the Sixers.
"I'm a fan of the Philadelphia 76ers," McCollum said (via Keith Pomprey of the Philadelphia Enquirer). "So it will be interesting to see what happens."
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto Raptors): Steven Adams (C, Pittsburgh)
I'm not sold on this whole Steven Adams suddenly developing an offensive game overnight thing, but, apparently, NBA general managers are. Adams was probably the biggest winner of the entire combine experience, showing off his chiseled NBA body, top-notch athleticism and never-before-seen touch around the basket in individual drills.
He seems like a mortal lock for the lottery at this point, even as most questioned his decision to leave Pitt after one season before the combine. While the merit of that standing is more than a little questionable—this kid literally looked like had made zero improvements under Jamie Dixon at Pitt—landing in Oklahoma City is a best-possible scenario for both sides.
The Thunder are committed to Kendrick Perkins, negative playoff PER be damned. Perk has two years remaining on his albatross contract, which is just about when one could realistically expect Adams to be a full-time NBA starter.
It's possible that he's turned a corner and it's only upward mobility from here. But I'm going to stay a bit skeptical, even if I think a move to the Thunder would pay dividends for both sides.
13. Dallas Mavericks: Dario Saric (F, Croatia)
The Mavericks want to and almost certainly will trade this pick. They want to keep every dime of cap space in hopes of wooing a perspective big name, to the shock of absolutely no one who has covered the NBA for more than 24 hours. Landing a superstar is priority No. 1 for owner Mark Cuban, assuming, of course, Shark Tank isn't filming.
But since I'm not playing the whole trade roulette game, I'm sticking Saric here because he's a potential draft-and-stash candidate. NBA teams have to be willing to buy out their draft picks' international contract, and the Mavericks could simply keep Saric overseas and avoid the cap impact that way if no trade offer comes up.
14. Utah Jazz: Michael Carter-Williams (G, Syracuse)
Carter-Williams has some pretty noticeable holes in his game, namely the complete inability to shoot. But even at 21 years old, there is so much untapped potential in this kid that the Jazz would be nothing short of thrilled to land him to top off the lottery.
Utah's proactive decision to ship Deron Williams off to New Jersey at the 2011 deadline paid off, but it has left a cavernous hole at point guard. Mo Williams and Randy Foye are not players you want working as your primary ball-handlers long-term—or, really, short-term for that matter.
Carter-Williams needs a ton of work on his shot, but he's a great passer with elite floor vision, and he can defend. On a team where perimeter defense was oft-disregarded, Carter-Williams would spark the beginning of a new point guard era in Utah.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Kelly Olynyk (C, Gonzaga)
The Bucks would love for someone with a higher potential to fall to this spot—namely Saric—but that didn’t happen in this scenario. In that case, they’ll need to find someone who fits where they’re going in the future—even as that future is very much in flux.
Center Larry Sanders is the only cornerstone piece Milwaukee knows for sure will be back next season, and Olynyk could be a perfect complement down low. The former Gonzaga star can stretch out to 18 feet, has a silky-smooth hook shot underneath and showed vastly improved strength this past season.
Sanders is still mostly a nonentity offensively, so an Olynyk-Sanders pairing could make for a perfect Odd Couples mix.
16. Boston Celtics: Jamaal Franklin (G-F, San Diego State)
The Celtics’ entire roster is in flux. What happens next with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce leaves pretty much any selection on the table at No. 16.
If the Celtics were bringing the band back together, they almost certainly would take Louisville center Gorgui Dieng. He’s the perfect interior presence that Boston so sorely needed last season when Garnett was on the bench, and he should help cut the team’s ever-growing rebound margin.
It’s become pretty clear the band isn’t getting back together.
So, with that reality in place, I'm going to put Franklin there for now. The former San Diego State star has elite athleticism and has some real two-way upside if he ever finds consistency with his shot. Assuming Rajon Rondo sticks around, these two could have some fun in the open court.
17. Atlanta Hawks: Dennis Schroeder (PG, Germany)
18. Atlanta Hawks (via Houston Rockets): Gorgui Dieng (C, Louisville)
The Hawks are in a position where they’re obviously looking to make big free-agent splashes this summer. They’ve all but publicly let it be known they’re looking to land hometown boy Dwight Howard this offseason and could theoretically push for Chris Paul alongside him.
That could mean these picks are going packing as part of a trade package, or that Atlanta will just double up on the draft-and-stash prospects. However, as the draft approaches, the Hawks should get a pretty good idea of where they stand with top free agents and act accordingly.
I'm expecting them to miss out on Howard, making Schroeder and Dieng two very intriguing options. The German guard Schroeder has been fast-moving up draft boards over these past few weeks as a guy who could star at the next level. He’s a score-first guard with an elite first step and explosive athleticism, though his basketball IQ could use some work.
Dieng is a defensive force and rebounding machine in the middle. While he’s a very good passer out of the post, his offensive game needs work and he’s already 23 years old. But the Hawks would be getting someone who would give them 15-20 minutes a night as a big-bodied player with six fouls to give.
Even if it’s not a perfect scenario, the Hawks should be satisfied if they get Dieng at No. 18.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Mason Plumlee (F, Duke)
The Cavs are likely to go one of two distinctive ways with their second Round 1 pick. Either they could nab someone who's ready to step in and contribute right away to making this a playoff contender, or they could just go all-out and take a chance on a Rudy Gobert boom-or-bust type.
Plumlee is more the former, but he also has a ton of untapped potential for a 23-year-old. The four-year Duke standout never quite put his otherworldly athleticism together until his senior season, but he was a really special player once he did. Plumlee averaged a nightly 17-10 for the Blue Devils this past season and was arguably the best player in the ACC all season long.
With Anderson Varejao on a different career trajectory than this roster, Cleveland at the very least could at least replace his energy long-term with Plumlee.
There are questions about whether he'll ever reach that untapped potential, and they're justified ones. But Plumlee isn't going to be a bust, and that's a borderline steal at No. 19.
20. Chicago Bulls: Glen Rice Jr. (G, NBA D-League)
The Bulls just finished a second-round slugfest with the Miami Heat and are likely feeling pretty good about themselves. With a roster depleted by injuries and illnesses, they gave the defending champs fits simply by being the league's toughest and most disciplined team.
That said, the Bulls still lost in five games. LeBron James and Co. might have broken a sweat, but it was only a mild one. And even if Derrick Rose, et al. were in the lineup for those contests, I'm not yet talking about a team that can defeat the mighty Heat in a seven-game series.
This core needs a lifeblood injection, and Rice could be that player. Kicked off the team at Georgia Tech for a myriad of violations, Rice reinvented himself during the D-League season. Leading the Rio Grande Valley Vipers to the league's championship, he was an easy 25-10 a night and showed flashes of elite scoring ability.
If there's one coach that can keep this kid on the straight and narrow path, it's Tom Thibodeau. It's possible Rice moves himself up past this point in workouts, but this is a great fit for both sides.
21. Utah Jazz (via Golden State Warriors): Rudy Gobert (F, France)
In this scenario, it seems like the Jazz are going for all length all the time. After taking the 6'6" point guard in Carter-Williams at No. 14, getting Gobert here would both represent a good value and make the Jay Bilas wingspan drinking game self-combust.
They also represent strong values in both spots. While Gobert was one of the biggest disappointments in the athleticism portion of drills in Chicago, he proved to be every bit as long as advertised. His wingspan was just under 7'9", and he was a full 7'2" while wearing shoes. That type of length is freakish and can make up for a lot of apparent deficiencies in his game.
With the Jazz parting ways with at least one of the Paul Millsap-Al Jefferson combo this summer, Gobert could be a very good long-term replacement.
22. Brooklyn Nets: Tony Snell (F, New Mexico)
You may have heard this a time or 12, but the Nets are in a bit of a salary conundrum going forward. They are dishing out exorbitant salaries to aging veteran players, only some of whom are effective, and the window is rapidly closing—if it hasn't already closed. Brooklyn's management needs to find instant contributors on the cheap, and the best place to do that is on draft day.
Snell is a bit of enigma. His commitment didn't seem all that high at New Mexico, often floating his way through games on pure talent. Those questions about his motor and commitment haven't subsided, but he's been a fast-rising name up draft boards during the early draft process.
Brooklyn might be one of his only first-round fits. The Nets desperately need a long-term replacement for Gerald Wallace, whose four-year, $40 million contract might already be a sunk cost. They were among the league's most dreadful teams at spacing when Wallace and Reggie Evans shared the floor, as neither have much offensive purpose.
Snell is a very good spot-up shooter and could be an instant bench contributor as a spell to Wallace.
23. Indiana Pacers: Shane Larkin (G, Miami)
Talk about a team ecstatic with how this board played out. The Pacers would do a backflip if Larkin were available at No. 23, as he fits just about everything they need in a long-term backup to George Hill.
Indiana's bench has been terrible this season, and D.J. Augustin has been particularly bad when not knocking down three-pointers. He struggles guarding the pick-and-roll and gets lost when trapped by athletic teams.
Larkin is a bit undersized himself, but he showed elite athleticism at the combine with a 44-inch vertical. He's a tough kid, committed defender and confident shooter from beyond the arc. It's very possible he goes higher than No. 23. If he's available, though, the Pacers won't hesitate.
24. New York Knicks: Jeff Withey (C, Kansas)
The Knicks' window to compete is now. Carmelo Anthony isn't getting any younger (duh), and Tyson Chandler showed real signs of wearing down during these playoffs. New York needs someone, preferably a big, to step in right away as a vital cog in the rotation.
Withey is a perfect fit. He's a tough underneath defender and a legitimate seven-footer in shoes. While no one will mistake him with a future All-Star, Withey fits all the criteria in a perfect Knicks selection.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Allen Crabbe (G, California)
Now that Vinny Del Negro has been sent packing, the Clippers can get started on wooing Chris Paul back into the fold. And while grabbing a rookie available at No. 25 isn't the way most would go about wooing Paul, most rookies aren't as able to instantly contribute as Crabbe.
A sweet-shooting guard out of Cal, Crabbe is arguably the most fluid three-point gunner in this draft. He put on a shooting display at the combine, shooting 70 percent in shooting drills while showing some very surprising athleticism, per ESPN's Chad Ford:
Crabbe's defensive commitment was a gigantic "no thanks" at Cal. But as long as whoever the Clippers hire keeps Crabbe and Jamal Crawford on the floor at separate times, that shouldn't be a problem.
There are enough mediocre shooting wings that you can hide a player like Crabbe, who will give Los Angeles a big boon from beyond the arc. Spot-up shooting was a major problem for the Clips last season, and they would be remiss if they didn't consider Crabbe if he's on the board at No. 25.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Giannis Antetokounmpo (G-F, Greece)
ESPN's Chad Ford reported last week that Antetokounmpo received a first-round promise, and the Timberwolves are among the likeliest candidates. They had great luck waiting on Ricky Rubio to develop overseas, and they could do the same for Antetokounmpo, who is nowhere near ready for NBA-level competition.
The Greek mystery man has been a source of intrigue for plenty of NBA scouts, as his point-forward skills and feel for the game are very good. It's hard to tell how much of that translates to this level of competition because Antetokounmpo has spent his life playing rec-league competition overseas, but his potential is undeniable.
With Minnesota already having grabbed a lottery pick, it can afford to take a risk. Antetokounmpo might never see an NBA floor, but at least the Wolves won't have to pay him a dime if he busts.
27. Denver Nuggets: Tim Hardaway, Jr. (G, Michigan)
The Nuggets, desperately in need of any perimeter shooting, will likely be saying their collective curses if Crabbe is off the board. He almost perfectly fits their need for a sweet-shooting wing, though I'm sure George Karl wouldn't be thrilled with the former Cal star's defensive effort.
There will be no such worries about Hardaway. While he's a slight step down from Crabbe as a long-range shooter, Hardaway's commitment can never be questioned. He's a good, not great defender who commits to team defense when it counts. And Hardaway is very good at attacking the rim with a head of steam, though he'll mostly land in Denver due to his elite three-point shooting ability.
The Nuggets will likely retool their roster a bit this offseason, hoping to either land a superstar or just find pieces who mesh better together. Hardaway's intelligence, experience and shot-making would help Denver a ton if the team has to rid itself of one of its building-block wings.
28. San Antonio Spurs: Sergey Karasev (G, Russia)
The Spurs' international scouting prowess is already the most renowned in the NBA, and Karasev may well be the next feather in R.C. Buford's cap. Almost anyone you talk to starts liking this kid the more he or she watches him on tape.
What really jumps out is how crafty he is around the basket already at age 19. Because he's not a great athlete, Karasev has learned quite a few nifty moves slashing to the basket, many of which can translate to the NBA level. He also has off-the-charts IQ for his age and makes the right play with the ball at a proficient rate.
The knock on him is that he's a bad defender and will only become a worse athlete as he gets older. That's a fair point. But Karasev has the potential to eventually replace Manu Ginobili as San Antonio's sixth-man scoring option. That's a hell of a steal at No. 28.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Isaiah Canaan (G, Murray State)
Canaan is fast becoming this year's most interesting riser. Having spent his entire career at Murray State, it feels almost like we stuck him in college basketball's version of Siberia these past few years. The six-foot guard stayed mostly under the radar in college, showing flashes of efficient scoring from all over the floor while never really dominating games.
However, he's become a player who increasingly jumps out to scouts as they watch more tape. More of a scoring point guard than traditional passer, Canaan is an excellent shooter from distance and has the athleticism to create off the dribble and finish around the rim. As pointed out by Ryan Feldman of ESPN Stats & Information, Canaan was one of two players to finish among the top guards in every athleticism drill at the combine:
Canaan and Reggie Jackson present a bit of a redundancy problem at the backup point guard spot, but Canaan might already be better. He’s definitely better from long range and as a scorer—something the Thunder need after this season’s playoff run.
30. Phoenix Suns (via Miami Heat): Pierre Jackson (G, Baylor)
Jackson can score. The Suns need scoring, even if it’s in a miniature frame. Need I say more?
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