The Most Important Role Player on Every Projected NBA Playoff Team

Come playoff time, having great role players becomes exponentially more important. We see it every year.

Just look at last season’s NBA Finals. In terms of production, the stars for the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder weren’t all that different. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 58 points, nine assists and 12 rebounds per game, whereas LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined for 51 points, 12 assists and 16 rebounds.

Miami has an advantage, but not a particularly significant one.

So why did the Heat win the series 4-1? Their role players stepped up. Mario Chalmers burned Durant for 25 points in Game 4, Shane Battier shot almost 60 percent from the three-point line for the series, and Mike Miller knocked down seven shots from deep in Game 5. It takes nine or 10 guys to make a real playoff run. It always has.

This year, there’s at least one role player on each potential playoff team who holds particular sway over how their team performs in the postseason. Some of them need to step up their game and some need to keep doing exactly what they’re doing.

But each of them will go a long way in determining their team’s postseason success.

All stats accurate as of 4/4/2013

Milwaukee Bucks: Larry Sanders

At some point this offseason, the Milwaukee Bucks’ Larry Sanders transformed into a shot-blocking/rim-protecting menace. Which makes him, by default, the key to a playoff run on any team featuring Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis.

It’s no secret that Jennings and Ellis play defense ranging from bad to comically bad, and it’s led to Bucks’ opponents taking a league-leading 30 shots per game at the rim (per HoopData).

However, Milwaukee’s opponents average just 61.7 percent shooting at the rim—good for 26th in the league (per HoopData). You can probably guess why.

Not even the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Serge Ibaka is capable of cleaning up mistakes the way that Sanders is. And as mentioned before, there are a lot of mistakes to clean up on this Bucks team (just check out this block following some Ellis-Jennings comedy).

It’s hard to believe that Sanders—with some help from Luc Richard Mbah a Moute—can possibly hold together the Bucks’ defense against the rim-assaulting Miami Heat (their likely first-round matchup). But he could at least help to make it a semi-fun series, and that will do in a pinch.  

Chicago Bulls: Carlos Boozer

Chicago Bulls fans probably won’t be too happy about this, but let’s face it—Carlos Boozer is the only Bull who can consistently create his own shot. The only one. And now that Taj Gibson is banged up, Boozer has become even more valuable.

Even when Derrick Rose was healthy, the Bulls were never a great offensive team. Without him, they’re offensively anemic. Chicago averages 103.3 points per 100 possessions—22nd in the league. Of this year’s potential playoff teams, only the Boston Celtics rank lower (per Basketball-Reference).

For all of Boozer’s defensive deficiencies, he’s averaging almost 16 points per game and has been the most consistent source of offense for this Bulls team. His 48 percent shooting doesn’t look all that impressive coming from a big man, but he’s been money when he’s closer than eight feet from the basket, where he’s shot 59 percent (per NBA.com).

Boozer’s stint in Chicago has been disappointing to be sure, but he is giving some offense to an offensively-starved team. That has to count for something.

Boston Celtics: Jeff Green

Jeff Green was one of the league's most frustrating players early this year, but he deserves all the credit in the world for the way he’s played over the past few months.

He’s become exactly the player the Boston Celtics were looking for when they traded for him two years ago.

Green is vital to the Celtics’ success not only because he can spell Paul Pierce at times, but because of the mismatches he creates through his versatility. Green is, and probably always will be, a disappointing rebounder for his size (five rebounds per 36 minutes via Basketball-Reference), but he’s proved to be solid at both the 3 and particularly the 4 this season. Heck, he’s even played some point-forward this season.

When he’s at the 4, Green can get pushed around a bit, but anything he gives up on the defensive end, he makes up for offensively. He was matched up against Chris Bosh and Chris “Birdman” Anderson numerous times in his breakout game against the Miami Heat, and he proceeded to simply destroy them off the dribble. The best teams need a guy who can do that if they choose to go small.

That versatility has always been there for Green—it’s the aggression that hasn’t been. But like many Celtics, Green stepped up his level of aggression after the Rajon Rondo injury. He’s averaged 13 shots per game since the All-Star break, compared to just over eight shots per game before it (per ESPN). Some of that can be explained by an uptick in his minutes, but most of it's just Green playing better.

Celtics coach Doc Rivers recently said (per the Providence Journal’s Kevin McNamara):

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I just think he’s being aggressive. Jeff’s just playing now. At the start of the year he’s playing with Kevin and Paul and Rondo. That’s tough. You think ‘Should I be aggressive?’ I love the way he’s playing.

"

Once you factor in Green’s ability to defend bigger forwards (he defends LeBron James as well as anyone), you’ve got an extremely valuable player. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Green when Kevin Garnett returns (Rivers said Green will start according to a tweet from the MetroWest Daily News’ Scott Souza), but he’s been undoubtedly impressive lately.  

Los Angeles Clippers: Lamar Odom

The Los Angeles Clippers have a defense problem.

Though the Clippers gave up just 99.5 points per 100 possessions before the All-Star break (sixth in the league per NBA.com), they’ve given up 105.6 points per 100 possessions since then, good for 19th in the league (per NBA.com). Which is not so good.

As ClipperBlog’s Seerat Sohi expertly broke down, the Clippers’ problems are primarily systemic. No one seems to know where they’re supposed to be, and the players who do know are often asked to do things beyond their set of skills (like DeAndre Jordan hedging hard on pick-and-rolls).

So while most of the blame should be assigned to head coach Vinny Del Negro, the onus will fall on Lamar Odom to help lift the Clippers’ D. Don’t laugh. Lamar Odom is the most important defensive player in Los Angeles right now.

Here’s what Sohi wrote about Odom in her breakdown:

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Interestingly, three of the Clippers’ five best defensive lineups feature Odom (minimum 100 minutes played). Not to mention, the Clippers defensive efficiency soars from 104.6 with Odom on the bench to 95.5 with him in the lineup, which represents the largest on/off court defensive disparity among the Clippers’ rotation players. It’s the approximate difference between the 20th ranked defense in Utah and Indiana, ranked as the best in the league.

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That’s a massive defensive swing.

Odom doesn’t (and shouldn’t) have the rim-protecting reputation of someone like Jordan, but he’s one of the best bigs in the league at blitzing and hedging on pick-and-rolls. It makes him invaluable in the Clippers’ system.

If Jordan was allowed to prowl the paint and focus on weak-side help, he’d be far more important than Odom. But as it stands, Odom is the lynchpin of the Clippers’ defense.

Del Negro’s not likely to change his scheme before the playoffs, which means that Odom’s the third most valuable player in Los Angeles (behind Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, obviously). Whether or not that will equate to playoff success…well we’ll just have to see.

Memphis Grizzlies: Tayshaun Prince

Tony Allen is a tempting choice, but the immediate impact that Tayshaun Prince has had on the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense (and the spacing he provides on offense) make him the pick.

Prince’s 10.7 PER is unlikely to impress anyone, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. With Prince on the floor, the Grizzlies’ offense has been solid, and its defense has been almost unthinkably good.

The current Memphis starting lineup is allowing 88.7 points per 100 possessions (per NBA.com). That’s over 10 points less than the Indiana Pacers’ No. 1 ranked defense and equates to less than 82 points per game if you adjust for pace. Absolutely absurd.

That lineup is also putting up 105.5 points per 100 possessions, giving it a net rating of plus-14.6 points. Replace Prince with Rudy Gay and the net rating dips down to plus-8.3 points (per NBA.com). That’s a hefty swing considering that Prince is a role player and Gay is supposed to be a star.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that Prince, a career 37 percent shooter from deep, is connecting on just 32 percent of his threes with Memphis. As he gets more comfortable with the Grizzlies’ offense, he’s bound to pick up his shooting and stretch defenses even more than he has so far. Bad, bad news for Grizzlies opponents.

Atlanta Hawks: Kyle Korver

Even on possessions in which Kyle Korver doesn’t touch the ball, he’s inadvertently helping other players score.

Korver is one of the league’s best three-point shooters, hitting 47 percent from deep on almost six attempts per game. And thanks to his shooting, Korver stretches the floor in a way that no other player does. Watch an Atlanta Hawks game. The player assigned to guard Korver will almost never sag off of him, not even to help against penetration.

That’s crucial for a team like the Hawks. It helps out on Jeff Teague’s sometimes reckless forays to the rim and provides some much-needed space for Josh Smith and Al Horford to operate. It also means that teams can’t use Korver’s man to double either of the Hawks’ big men for fear of a quick kick out and Korver three.

Though Korver only chips in 11 points per game, he’s the fifth most efficient offensive player in the league, averaging 1.14 points per possession (via Synergy Sports Technology). And, as mentioned before, his value goes far beyond his own numbers. Korver adds 11.4 net points per 100 possessions (per 82games.com), second only to Horford on the Hawks.

The spacing he provides is that important.

Miami Heat: Norris Cole

Only one man can stop the Miami Heat from capturing their second straight NBA title—Norris Cole.

While that statement may be a bit exaggerated, it’s also truer than you’d think. Cole is by far the Heat’s biggest weakness, and his play in the playoffs will go a long way in determining this year’s champion.

To put it simply, Cole has been killing the Heat. Just killing them. With Cole on the court this season, the Heat are scoring 106 points per 100 possessions and giving up 105.7 points per 100 possessions, a net rating of plus-0.3 points (per Basketball-Reference). Doesn’t sound too bad, right?

Then consider this: When Cole is off the court, Miami is scoring 113.4 points per 100 possessions and giving up just 100.8 points per 100 possessions, an unbelievable net rating of plus-12.6. To put that into perspective, no team in NBA history has ever posted an Offensive Rating over 113 and a Defensive Rating of under 101 (per Basketball-Reference).

The good news for Heat fans is that last season, Cole’s minutes were cut from 19.8 per game in the regular season to 8.9 per game in the playoffs. They can hope for the same thing this season. But Mario Chalmers is banged up right now, and if he can’t play many minutes…

Let’s just say that Heat fans need to hope for a massive improvement on Cole’s end. He’s the key to Miami’s 2012-13 playoff run.

New York Knicks: J.R. Smith

J.R. Smith’s haphazard shot-selection has infuriated coaches and fans for just about forever, but over the past few weeks he seems to have morphed into an entirely new player.

The New York Knicks’ winning streak started on March 18th. In every game this season before the winning streak, less than 16 percent of Smith’s shots came from the restricted area, and he shot just 58 percent on those attempts.

Since the streak began? Over 36 percent of his shots have come from the restricted area, and he’s hitting on 67 percent of them. His effective field goal percentage pre-streak: 46.6 percent. During the streak: 54.5 percent (per NBA.com via Grantland’s Zach Lowe).

Guys other than Smith have stepped up their game during the Knicks’ win streak, but Smith is playing in a different universe right now. Few players can hope to stay in front of him off the dribble, and he’s giving New York an efficient alternative to constant three-pointers and Carmelo Anthony isos.

If this stretch of games marks a real change from Smith, then the Knicks could pose a real threat to Miami in the Eastern Conference. If it’s just a mirage, the Knicks will fall in line with the rest of the pack. That’s how good he’s been lately.

Los Angeles Lakers: Antawn Jamison

The race between the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz is a tight one, but the Lakers had a slight edge as of the time of publication, and we’ll count on them to close it out. They’ve been pretty reliable this season, right?

Anyways, the argument for Antawn Jamison is simple. When he plays well, the Lakers win. When he doesn’t, they lose. It’s that simple.

Just check out his per 36 minutes win/loss splits from this season (via NBA.com).

	FG%	3FG%	REB	PTS	+/-
Wins	49.8%	39.3%	8.7	18.0	6.8
Losses	42.6%	29.2%	7.3	12.7	-7.8

That's some drastic stuff. When Jamison scores in double digits, the Lakers are 21-10, which equates to a winning percentage comparable to that of the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. When he hits more than one three-pointer, the Lakers are 11-4 (via Silverscreenandroll.com).

It’s not exactly shocking that a Mike D’Antoni team is better with a competent stretch 4—particularly considering Dwight Howard’s offensive limitations—but just how much better they are is surprising.

What the Lakers have to figure out now is how to get Jamison going in the playoffs. He’s been streaky all season (though better as of late), and if Los Angeles hopes to stand any chance against the San Antonio Spurs, they’re going to need him to draw Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter out of the paint.

If anyone knows how to get players going, it’s Steve Nash, so maybe he’ll help Jamison turn it on in the first round. He’d better, because if he doesn’t, the Lakers are going home fast.

Brooklyn Nets: Andray Blatche

Andray Blatche isn’t just the Brooklyn Nets’ most important role player—he’s the best backup center in the league. Never thought you’d read that sentence, did you?

Blatche was basically run out of the Washington Wizards’ organization, but he’s been spectacular with the Nets. His 22.4 PER ranks 12th among all qualified players and is higher than that of guys like Kyrie Irving, Stephen Curry and even Dwight Howard.

This didn’t happen by accident. Like many of the other players discussed here, Blatche has changed his game this season. He’s cut his mid-range and deep two attempts in half (a combined 4.3 attempts per 40 minutes compared to 8.6 last season) and is shooting more at the rim than ever before (8.2 attempts per 40 minutes via HoopData).

Basically, Blatche has finally started playing like a big man, and he’s playing fantastic basketball because of it. Blatche’s real problem right now is just getting minutes. As good as Blatche has been this season, Brook Lopez is still a better player and head coach P.J. Carlesimo has proved very reluctant to play the two at the same time (they’ve gotten just 60 minutes together via NBA.com).

Even with the limited floor time, Blatche has been a revelation this season. Now if only P.J. would give him and Lopez a chance together…

Denver Nuggets: Wilson Chandler

If Wilson Chandler was important before Danilo Gallinari suffered a knee injury, he’s now irreplaceable.

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a superstar, but what they do have is the most versatile roster in the NBA. Thanks primarily to Chandler, head coach George Karl can—and does—throw out wonky lineups that force opponents to make adjustments.

Chandler can play the 2, 3 and 4 effectively and can guard anyone from the 1 to 4, which means that Karl can use him to cause mismatches in both small and big lineups. Grantland’s Zach Lowe recently wrote:

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Karl says Chandler is the team’s best help defender, and he had enough faith in Chandler’s defense Tuesday against Oklahoma City to run out an ultra-small lineup that hadn’t seen the floor for even five minutes before that game: Chandler, Gallinari, Brewer, Lawson, and Prof. (Andre) Miller. That unit blitzed a small-ball Oklahoma City unit over about 5:30 of playing time, and though Karl said he used it more as a snap response to Oklahoma City playing a small-ball lineup with Durant at power forward and Nick Collison at center, he may have discovered a nice weapon if the two teams meet again.

"

Nick Collison is a good defender, but there’s simply no way he could possibly play Chandler effectively on the perimeter. On the flip side, Chandler is versatile enough to match up with him because Collison isn’t a great low-post scorer.

Essentially, Chandler is the Nuggets’ best piece in a game of basketball chess. Karl can counter whatever lineup an opponent trots out by using Chandler to create specific mismatches—even if it’s not necessarily a mismatch for Chandler himself.

These gambles don’t always work out, but they’re one of the keys to Denver’s superstar-less roster. Chandler’s flexibility defines the Nuggets’ playstyle. Hard to get more valuable than that.

Indiana Pacers: Roy Hibbert

Roy Hibbert is stuck in that weird zone between a star and a role player. But since he didn’t get an All-Star bid this year, we’ll make him eligible for the list.

The Indiana Pacers are—along with the Denver Nuggets—one of the few superstar-less teams that could be considered a legitimate championship contender. A fringe contender, maybe, but a contender nonetheless.

And almost everything the Pacers do—particularly defensively—comes back to Roy Hibbert. Hibbert isn’t a freak athlete like, say, Serge Ibaka or Larry Sanders, but he eats up space and is always in the right place at the right time. He’s never flashy, just effective.

Opponents are shooting 58 percent at the rim against the Pacers, by far the lowest mark in the league (per HoopData). The difference between the Pacers’ No. 1 ranked defense and the Memphis Grizzlies’ No. 2 ranked defense is 3.3 points per 100 possessions—the same as the difference between the Grizzlies’ defense and the Atlanta Hawks’ tenth-ranked defense (per HoopData).

With all due respect to Paul George and the Pacers’ terrific defensive scheme, that’s mostly thanks to Hibbert.

Throw in the fact that his shot is finally starting to fall (he’s shot 46 percent over the last three months after shooting just 39 percent in November and December via Basketball-Reference) and you’re looking at the catalyst for this Pacers team.

Houston Rockets: Omer Asik

Remember everything you read about Larry Sanders? You can pretty much apply the same principles to the Houston Rockets' Omer Asik.

Asik is not only the lone strong defender on a very poor defensive team, he’s also by far the Rockets’ best rebounder. Asik averages 11.6 rebounds per game (tied for second in the league) and grabs 22 percent of all available boards, second only to the Brooklyn Nets’ Reggie Evans (per Basketball-Reference).

Thanks to Asik, the Rockets are the best defensive rebounding team in the league (per Basketball-Reference). And that, in turn, spearheads their offense. The Rockets play the fastest brand of basketball in the league and score over 18 transition points per game (per TeamRankings) because Asik is constantly starting them on the break.

The Rockets aren’t getting anything in transition without Asik snagging all the boards in sight. In that sense, you could even make the case that he’s the team’s second most important offensive player. And again, he’s certainly its best defender. Not too shabby for a former second-round draft pick.

San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard is the San Antonio Spurs’ swiss army knife: He does a little bit of everything.

His performance Thursday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder is the perfect example. Leonard put up 24 points, 14 rebounds and six assists while playing terrific defense on Kevin Durant (25 points on 20 shots and six turnovers). A fourth option can't give much more than that.

Leonard’s defense against the Western Conference’s high-scoring wings is obviously going to be important in the playoffs. But what makes Leonard so unique—and important—to the Spurs is his offense, more specifically the way that he scores his points.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, Leonard actually initiates his own offense—either in isolation or through the pick-and-roll—just 13 percent of the time. It’s not that he can’t do those things, just that doing so would take the ball out of the hands of superior playmakers like Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. Leonard instead scores in basically every other way imaginable.

He hits spot-up jumpers, cuts to the basket, finishes in transition and takes neat, one-dribble jumpers off of hand-offs. Altogether, this stuff accounts for about 75 percent of Leonard’s offense, and it’s the reason that he’s one of the 20 or so most efficient offensive players in the league, averaging almost 1.1 points per possession (via Synergy Sports Technology).

Few players—and no player his age—can generate offense off the ball the way that the 21-year-old Leonard can. In the hyper-efficient Spurs’ machine, he's one of the most irreplaceable parts. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson is key for two reasons:

1. Along with Kevin Martin, he provides the Oklahoma City Thunder bench some much-needed punch.

2. There’s at least an outside chance that he prevents Derek Fisher from getting serious burn in the playoffs (Note: Thunder fans shouldn’t count on this).

Though Kevin Martin has replaced some of James Harden’s production, he’s fundamentally a very different player. Martin does most of his damage from outside, averaging well over half of his shots from 16-23 feet or further (per HoopData). That’s fine when he’s shooting well, but when he goes cold, he can’t provide anywhere near what Harden could. That’s where Jackson comes in.

Over the past two months, Jackson has developed a knack for attacking and finishing at the rim. He’s shooting close to 80 percent at the rim this season and averages 3.6 attempts at the rim per 40 minutes (via HoopData). That's comparable to Harden’s 4.4 per 40 minutes last season even before you factor in Jackson’s increased aggression recently (per HoopData).

Jackson’s ability to get into the lane also takes pressure off of Martin as a primary ball-handler. When Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook aren’t on the floor, Martin struggles to create his own shot. Jackson frees him up to float to the corners and space the floor for other players.

Minutes are the real problem. Jackson has outplayed Fisher in virtually every way, and yet the two still split time. Jackson’s important enough to the team already. If he can convince Scott Brooks that he should get the bulk of Fisher’s minutes, he’d be the Thunder’s MVP.

(Okay, that’s an exaggeration. But before his 17-point game against the San Antonio Spurs, Fisher had gone 2-for-24 over his past eight games and thrown in some dreadful defense, too. How is he still on the floor?) 

Golden State Warriors: Harrimond Grarnes

A combination of Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green (yeah, yeah, I know it’s two people).

The Golden State Warriors still have some defensive issues that need to be addressed, but it’s their wing problem that stands between them and a first-round victory.

The Warriors’ two primary wings are a pair of rookies—Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green—both of whom are quality young players who need to improve in different, distinct ways.

Barnes has shown offensive flashes this year. He shoots the three ball at a decent clip (36 percent), and he’s had a lot of success off the dribble, hitting 72.2 percent of shots at the rim (per HoopData) and ending a few lives (metaphorically) in the process. However, he’s still inconsistent and is a liability on defense at this point, particularly off the ball.

Green is Barnes’ polar opposite. He’s a superb defender for a rookie but shoots just 33 percent from the field—including 21 percent from deep—and averages just 0.68 points per possession (per Synergy Sports Technology).

It’s a pick your poison type of situation for head coach Mark Jackson. He can either watch Barnes consistently get beaten on backdoor cuts and off-ball screens, or he can watch his team play 4 on 5 offensively (a.k.a. the Kendrick Perkins special) when Green is on the court.

Here’s what WarriorsWorld’s Ethan Sherwood Strauss wrote less than a month ago:

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The only short term solution is that one of these guys markedly improves. This can happen with rookies but it hasn’t happened this season. The Warriors are nearly wingless, and lack a superstar to compensate for the deficiency. Right now, this is a solidly average team that’s an injury away from being a familiar kind of mediocre.

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That’s pretty much it in a nutshell. Either one of them improves, or the Warriors go home. When he’s aggressive, Barnes’ offense can more than make up for his defense, so he’s probably the best bet for a quick fix. But, regardless of who it is, the Warriors need one of them to step up fast.