2012-13 NBA Awards Odds, Opening Week Edition

Vegas has released its odds for the major NBA awards.  But who wants to stick with only what Vegas puts forth?   

There tends to be agreement between my odds and Vegas regarding most of the favorites, but the value picks and odds on the contenders for the awards differs notably.

I've comprised my own list of odds for the NBA's six major awards: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year and the Coach of the Year awards.  

We'll begin by first looking at the top 13 candidates for the MVP award. 

MVP: Kevin Love (15-1)

Bovada set the odds of Love winning the award at 30-1.  Those odds have increased since he sustained his injury, as Covers.com listed him at +1800 to win the award three weeks ago before the injury.  

The Timberwolves have a chance to be a big surprise team, but that term must be used loosely, because it won't be that much of a surprise to a lot of fans and analysts. 

Ricky Rubio and Love himself both begin the year injured, but by Christmas the Timberwolves should be rolling and on their way toward being one of the best teams in the Western Conference.  

Love is the main reason for the renaissance in Minneapolis and is the league's best power forward.  If his teammates play well and the Wolves resume where they left off before Rubio's injury last season nearly two-thirds of the way through the season, then Love stands a legitimate chance of winning this award. 

MVP: Russell Westbrook (12-1)

There's something I don't like about picking the No. 2 option on a team to win the MVP award, but with James Harden leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder, the opportunity for Russell Westbrook to do even more is there.

Bovada sets the odds for Westbrook at 16-1, but the thing that causes me to favor Westbrook more than that is his "MVP mentality."  Westbrook plays as though he thinks he is the best player in the league, and that is crucial toward winning awards like this.  

Westbrook is not afraid to take the biggest shots.  Despite the fact he has the league's leading scorer flanking the wing, he's still going to jack up as many shots as he can.  That's going to lead to huge numbers, and just because the Thunder have been Durant's team doesn't mean Westbrook can't self-impose a change on that landscape.

MVP: Steve Nash (10-1)

Steve Nash is only 16-1 to win the MVP on Bovada, but his chances seem far better than that.  He's now 38, and it seems possible he could win his third MVP award because of that, rather than in spite of it.  Nash still averaged the second-most assists in the league last year with 10.7 per game, and now he's on a far better team. 

Could we see Nash elevate his assist production over 12 per game with a pick-and-roll partner like Dwight Howard?  

John Stockton remained effective right until the day he retired, and it seems Nash is going to follow in his footsteps.  His game hasn't declined much at all, and all of his defensive liabilities will be covered by D12 lurking in the paint behind him.  Nash isn't exactly a favorite for this award, but he's my favorite long shot.

MVP: Kobe Bryant (10-1)

It seems at first glance that these odds are a bit extreme.  Then, it must be considered that even Vegas is setting the odds heavily stacked against Bryant (Bovada sets them at 12-1).  He's due to decline because of his age (34) and a reduced team role.  The days of Bryant averaging close to 30 points a game are no longer.

But that doesn't mean he can't win the award.  Accepting a reduced role and still helping lead the Lakers to the best regular season would go a long way toward helping Bryant capture what would only be his second MVP trophy.  

Amazingly, as celebrated as the Mamba's career has been, he just hasn't captured the regular-season MVP awards.  He has been the NBA Finals MVP twice in his seven appearances, so maybe this is the year that he receives a post-credited MVP. 

Maybe the voters have sympathy on Bryant, as this is an award one would have thought he had already won multiples of.

MVP: Chris Paul (9-1)

If a Clipper wins this award, it will be Chris Paul, not Blake Griffin.  Paul is almost unarguably the league's best point guard, and his effect on Blake Griffin is what will make the Clippers a contending team, if they are to be one.  

The Clippers added a lot of depth this season, but have battled injuries to their older role players (see: Lamar Odom, Grant Hill and Chauncey Billups).  Paul had the Clippers coasting before Billups got injured last year, and they've only added more talent since that time.  They may have the league's deepest roster. 

All of that talent combines to lend a favorable chance to Paul winning this award.  CP3 was third in the league in assists with 9.1 per game last year, but that figure should be more than 10 with the amount of talent on the Clips squad.  If he gets his assist production back over 10 per game and the Clippers win the Pacific Division over the Lakers, then he very well may win this award.

MVP: Dwight Howard (7-1)

Of all the Lakers players, Howard's chances at winning the MVP award are the best.  His impact on both ends of the court is what makes that a strong statement.  Howard made the Orlando Magic an elite defensive team despite having several weak on-ball defenders on the perimeter.  

When guys blew by the likes of Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson and Chris Duhon, it was Howard who was there to change the shots or block them and keep the Magic defense strong around the basket.

He'll be doing the same thing in L.A.  Add his defensive impact to the offensive improvement that is sure to come as a result of playing with Steve Nash, and Howard's chances to win this award look even better. 

It's hard to give him better than 7-1, though, because of the fact he is part of a Big Four.  No matter how drastic his impact, the objection will be that Kevin Durant is doing it with less help or that LeBron James has a bigger all-around impact.

But defense must be considered in this award.  Yes, there is a Defensive Player of the Year award—and yes, Howard has won it three times—but the fact remains he has had an MVP-like impact on his teams since the 2007-08 season and has yet to win the award.  

Even going by my own odds, Howard is the clear value pick for MVP.  Vegas oddsmakers Bovada set the line at 14-1 for Howard.  That seems like a ridiculously good value considering he is healthy and is a part of a true contender now.

MVP: Kevin Durant (3-1)

Kevin Durant seems due to win this award.  He's led the league in scoring the last three seasons and the Thunder are the reigning Western Conference champs.  

What can Durant do to win an MVP award?

As I wrote on October 9 for Bleacher Report, Durant must diversify his game and become more than a scorer.  He has to make the Thunder his team, despite Russell Westbrook's insistence on being a co-alpha dog.  He has to rebound the ball even more ferociously.  And he has to play better defense.

Scoring the most points in the league isn't quite enough to sway the media into placing votes in your favor.  It's going to take a more all-around effort on Durant's part to show he is not one-dimensional.  I wrote in that MVP preview piece that Durant needs to average 30 points per game, nine rebounds per night and record "five-plus assists."  If he does that, he'll take home the MVP without a doubt.  

But barring that type of diversification in his game, it doesn't seem likely he can beat LBJ in the MVP voting.

MVP: LeBron James (5-2)

Bovada sets the odds of LeBron James winning the MVP at 19-10, which are slightly more favorable than the 5-2 odds I have set. 

Though LBJ just won this award last year, it runs contrary to logic to imagine anything different happening this year.  Provided James stays healthy, he should ride of the coattails of his previous success and lead the Miami Heat to the league's best regular-season record.  

The Lakers will take time to jell, while James and the Heat already have the wheels of their powerful machine in motion.  He need only dominate and be his usual self to win this award, as it seems he is progressing toward building a substantial legacy now, as he's just entering his prime and has already won the MVP award three times.  

While there is the thought that sometimes the award is given to those who haven't won it whether they have better seasons or not, that notion can be largely discounted in circumstances like this.  Michael Jordan won the MVP award five times, and James could easily eclipse that number by the time it's all said and done.

MVP: the Best of the Rest

Blake Griffin (20-1)

Blake Griffin will have to show significant improvement to win this award.  He's been perceived as too one-dimensional and a subpar defender.  He's also not the best player on his team, as I mentioned already when speaking on Chris Paul's chances.  

Even at 20-1, I'm not touching Griffin, but the odds seem respectable considering the level of excitement he brings to the game.  

His jaw-dropping athleticism and affable nature make him at least 20-1 for bettors who don't consider the fact that Griffin's game itself just isn't developed enough yet to warrant winning the type of award that players win in their prime.

Rajon Rondo (20-1)

Rajon Rondo actually makes a decent long shot vote.  He'd have to do a lot of his triple-double magic and put up insane numbers to win the award, but he has the talent and ball-handling skills to make the Celtics legitimate contenders.  

Rondo still lacks a jump shot, but his excitement level outclasses a number of true contenders for the award and he's a likable, stylish guy who is good with the media.  That, as much as anything else, gives him an outside shot at the award.

Deron Williams (35-1)

The Nets are pretty overrated, and Mikhail Prokhorov just spent his entire wad on a collection of players that are now among the most overpaid in the league.  

Throwing that out the window, Deron Williams is the second-best point guard in the league and the Nets do still have a lot of talent on the team (notwithstanding the fact that they are now cap-strapped and will struggle to improve the roster beyond what is on it).  

There will be less pressure on Williams with Joe Johnson around to share the ball-handling duties, and that decrease in usage will only further hinder his chance of winning the MVP award.

Dwyane Wade (35-1)

I wrote just yesterday that Dwyane Wade is due to regress this season, so I really don't like his chances to win this award.  These 35-1 odds are even more stacked against Wade than Bovada's 22-1, and yet they are more reasonable.  

Wade is likely going to average closer to 20 points per game this season than 30, and whoever does win the award will be putting up far better numbers than Wade is due for.  His minutes decreased to 33 per game last season, and a further decrease is quite likely now that he is on the wrong side of 30.

Carmelo Anthony (40-1)

Carmelo Anthony would have to have a miraculous year and lead the Knicks far further than anyone expects to have any chance at the MVP award.  He puts up nearly MVP-like numbers, but his effect on the Knicks is far from MVP-like.  

Amar'e Stoudemire has declined as a player and Carmelo has a lot to do with why, as Amar'e has been taking worse and worse shots, settling for jumpers and having minimal movement off the ball.  

The Knicks are just too dysfunctional and lack chemistry, and even at these 40-1 odds, Melo still isn't a great value.  Bovada sets the odds for Carmelo Anthony at 25-1.

2012-13 Rookie of the Year Award

To many, this year's rookie of the year seems to be an open-and-shut case:  Anthony Davis will win it by a landslide.  

To those in the know, the landscape is quite different.  Damian Lillard has emerged as a serious dark-horse candidate to take the label as the Rookie of the Year favorite away from Anthony Davis, if he ever possessed it at all.

Lillard is the No. 2 favorite for the award, by a good measure, but there are still four other rookies with legitimate chances to walk away with the ROY.

Here's a look at Davis, Lillard and four other rookies who should contend for the award.

ROY: Thomas Robinson (20-1)

Thomas Robinson looked impressive in preseason for the Sacramento Kings and should be due to receive adequate playing time as the Kings develop their chemistry for the future.  Robinson may play a lot of small forward at the NBA level, after excelling at the 4-spot in NCAA play.  

He's quick enough and athletic enough that he can succeed covering small forwards, and Robinson is 6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan.  He should be able to grab a lot of rebounds from day one, as rebounding is one skill that almost always translates from NCAA ball to pro ball.  

If Robinson has a monster rebounding year and scores "just enough," he could post a double-double and be in the same realm of impact as Davis.  Because the Kings have a better collection of talent around Robinson than the Hornets do around Davis, it's possible that he looks even better playing a more concealed role on a more talented team.  

ROY: Jonas Valanciunas (17-1)

Jonas Valanciunas is eerily reminiscent of a young Kevin Garnett.  His length and knack for being a good defender parallel an 18-year-old Kevin Garnett very closely, and Valanciunas will make his debut in the NBA in 2012-13, after spending one more in Europe following his No. 5 overall selection in the 2011 NBA draft.

He's going to start from day one and will shift the soft Andrea Bargnani to power forward, which should work out well for the Raptors.  Throwing in Kyle Lowry, one of the most underrated point guards in the NBA, along with 2012 selection Terrence Ross, an emerging DeMar DeRozan and defensive stopper Landry Fields, and the Raptors have a chance to make some noise in the Eastern Conference.

If Jonas V. and the Raps can make the playoffs and win half their games (and outperforming Davis' Hornets), then Valanciunas could win this award.  He's not part of the draft class, but he is still a rookie and eligible for this award.  

ROY: Bradley Beal (15-1)

Bradley Beal received no votes from league GMs polled when asked who would win Rookie of the Year.  Yet, many do consider Beal a chic pick because of how badly the Washington Wizards need offensive help.  

Beal is going to get looks, and he's a very good shooter.  Some have even compared him to Ray Allen.  The bar is set high, because Allen is the best shooter in NBA history, almost unarguably.  

If Beal is anywhere near as good as Allen in his prime, he has a legitimate chance of winning this award.  

The real test will be to see how Beal reacts when John Wall returns to the lineup.  Wall and Beal could potentially form one of the best young backcourts in the league, and the Wizards do have a chance to be a surprise team.  

If Beal comes out and plays out of his mind and the Wizards sneak into the playoffs, he could steal the award from Davis, too.  Bovada sets the odds at 12-1, and that seems a bit optimistic, but Beal is a dark horse to win this award in the eyes of many bettors.

ROY: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (10-1)

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the best player on a pretty horrible Charlotte Bobcats team, and the teams hapless nature may or may not play any factor in whether he has a chance to win the ROY award.  

Certainly, it would require that MKG change the losing ways in Charlotte and at least make them a passable franchise, but he can't do that without the help of Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson, who both must also play substantial roles for the Bobcats to approach the harrowed halls of mediocrity.  

Indeed, if the Bobcats were to win one-third of their games and MKG averaged 15 to 17 points per game, he could steal the award from Davis.  

Is that a long shot?  Kidd-Gilchrist compared himself to Scottie Pippen, and in a draft class like this, Pippen would be a favorite to win the award.  The thing is, he's likely not as good as Pippen, and nowhere near the level Scottie was at during his prime.  

The real question regarding Kidd-Gilchrist is whether or not he can elevate his game beyond that middle tier of small forwards in the NBA or whether he is destined to become more like a fringe All-Star.

ROY: Damian Lillard (4-1)

Twenty percent of NBA GMs polled selected Damian Lillard to win the rookie of the year award, which falls about in line with the 4-1 odds.  Lillard would likely go No. 2 overall if the draft were held now, as he has shown already he has franchise-player talent.  

The Blazers feel very confident having paired Lillard with LaMarcus Aldridge,and feel that they can work their way back to contention after being billed as a team of the future, before losing Brandon Roy and Greg Oden to injuries.

Lillard and Alridge's potential as a tandem is enticing, and Lillard is going to get the chance to run the show from the get-go.  Blazers coach Terry Stotts fully trusts Lillard with the team, and he has the potential to finish in the top 10 in assists this season as a rookie.  

Lillard will contend with Davis for the ROY award.  Vegas oddsmakers at Bovada set the line at 5-1 for Lillard, but I feel his chances are slightly better than that and think the 4-1 line is quite appropriate for a guy who almost went under the radar in some respects until he turned heads this preseason.

ROY: Anthony Davis (2-1)

Anthony Davis has the best chance to win this award.  Of GMs polled, 76.7 percent said Anthony Davis would win the award.  Last year, Kyrie Irving received the confidence of 63 percent and won the award, so Davis' near-lock on this award makes the 7-4 bet set by Bovada rather enticing.  

Truly, Davis has all the opportunities to have a monster rookie season.  

New Orleans is building around him, and he's being given the opportunity to learn the ropes to the NBA as a power forward, with Robin Lopez manning the 5-spot in the starting lineup.  

When polled as to which rookie would be the best player five years from now, 86.7 percent of GMs chose Anthony Davis, only further substantiating the fact that his upside renders him heads and shoulders above the rest of his draft class.

2012-13 Defensive Player of the Year Award

Tyson Chandler won the 2011-12 Defensive Player of the Year award.  In many ways, it was almost a retroactive award for the role he played in the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks' championship.  

Chandler must, of course, remain a favorite to win this award, but it seems far more likely that it goes back into the hands of three-time award winner Dwight Howard.  

Let's take a look at Howard, Chandler and six other guys who I think should contend for the award.

DPOY: Andre Iguodala (12-1)

Paul Pierce was quick to hype Andre Iguodala as an All-NBA level type of defender.  He didn't receive that recognition and received only 33 points in voting last year with only one first-place vote.  He's a game-changer defensively, though, and his deflections alone warrant more votes than what he is receiving.  

The NBA doesn't keep deflections as an official stat, but if they did Iggy would rank in the league leaders every year.  That said, he's now on a run-and-gun Denver Nuggets team that will have very little emphasis on defense. 

If he revolutionized the cause of defense in Denver and got George Karl's team defending in addition to racking up the points, he could win this award, but that is a long shot.

DPOY: Tony Allen (10-1)

Tony Allen is the best defender in the league, so really this award should be his to lose.  But players like Allen don't always receive their due recognition when it comes to changing a defense.  Lockdown wing defenders don't block many shots, and the only mark of their game-changing impact comes in the steals category—one in which Allen excels, naturally.  

Allen is capable of covering guys three and four inches taller, and he is capable of covering point guards, too.  He is the best one-on-one perimeter defender in the league, but will likely not get enough recognition to win the award.  Last year, he received 36 points in votes, but only four first-place votes.  

Allen received the highest share of votes among league GMs for the best perimeter defender, as one-third of the GMs polled selected him.  

DPOY: Kevin Garnett (9-1)

Kevin Garnett won the award in 2008, and now at age 36, it doesn't seem quite as likely he wins it again.

Or does it?

The Celtics pushed the Miami Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals and appeared to be on the verge of winning it and advancing to the NBA Finals until Chris Bosh returned from injury.  Still, Bosh or not, the C's were without Avery Bradley and Jeff Green, and that addition of perimeter defense makes them much more formidable this season.

That's all good for Garnett's chances, because if the team succeeds, it will be because of defense. As the premier defender, he'll be given the credit.  Don't discount Garnett's chances of winning this award again.

DPOY: Tyson Chandler (6-1)

Tyson Chandler won the award last year and repeating doesn't seem that likely, but if the Knicks surprised some people in the East and Chandler turned in another strong defensive year, then there's no reason he couldn't win the award again. 

There are several players with far better chances of winning the award than Chandler, though.  

DPOY: LeBron James (4-1)

LeBron James falls just after Dwight Howard to win this award.  So much has been made of his ability to "defend all five positions."  

James did do an admirable job on Derrick Rose in the 2011 NBA playoffs, and one would think that if the Heat met the Lakers, LBJ may see some time on Dwight Howard.  That will be the case especially if Chris Bosh is unable to cover the behemoth.  

James and Howard are of comparative strength, and James has even more agility and speed to go with it.  He has the makings of one of the best defenders of all time if he can get a handle on the cerebral aspects of lockdown defense.

DPOY: Serge Ibaka (4-1)

Serge Ibaka is the best shot-blocker in the league, and sometimes that will translate to winning an award like the Defensive Player of the Year.  He isn't quite the dominant force on the boards that Howard is, but he's the best at turning away defenders in the NBA.  

Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins keep the Oklahoma City Thunder tough around the hoop, and if Ibaka starts to rebound the ball a little more fiercely, he could make a real run at this award.  

His offense has continued to improve, but that really shouldn't play a role in this award of course.  His defense is good enough to warrant winning the Defensive Player of the Year, and leading the league in blocks per game again will go a good ways toward making it happen.

DPOY: Josh Smith (7-2)

Josh Smith seems due to win this award.  He's been one of the best defenders in the league for the last half-decade, but didn't receive a single first-place vote for Defensive Player of the Year in 2012.  He still also hasn't made an All-Star team.  

He gets a lot of steals (1.4 per game), blocks nearly two shots a game and rebounds the ball well.  Smith averaged a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game last season.

It's unclear what is causing Smith to fly under the radar for recognition; is it playing in Atlanta?  What can Smith do to win this award and to make All-Star teams?  

DPOY: Dwight Howard (5-2)

Dwight Howard has won this award three times already as a member of the Orlando Magic.  Now, it seems fitting he wins it as a Laker.  Howard will change the Lakers defensively, and he'll be needed to cover for the slow-footed Steve Nash on the perimeter.  

His impact should increase offensively, too, but there is no negating the fact that Howard is the league's best defender and a game-changer on the defensive end.  Even without blocking as many shots as Ibaka, Howard will rank in the top five in blocked shots and top two in rebounding and has been getting more and more steals as his career has gone on (1.5 steals per game last season).  

Howard has been great defensively, and it may be that he is still getting better.

2012-13 Most Improved Player Award

Last season, Ryan Anderson won the league's Most Improved Player of the Year award.  This award often goes to guys we already all know have what it takes to succeed but just finally received their first opportunity to become a full-time starter.

This year is no different.  My favorite for the award, Goran Dragic, finally received a chance to start last season when Rockets starter Kyle Lowry went down with an injury, and he shined during that period.  Now, with a full season as the starting point guard of a talented Suns squad, Dragic seems primed to win this award.  

There are other candidates well worthy of a look, though.  Nikola Pekovic already showed last season he can be a top-10 center in the NBA.  JaVale McGee put in time with Hakeem Olajuwon and has improved every year in the league.  

Beyond those three, there are a handful of other guys that could further unveil their talents as they receive more playing time in the 2012-13 season.

MIP: Goran Dragic (5-2)

Goran Dragic has to be the favorite to win this award.  He's long had the skills to be a starting point guard and finally finds himself in charge in Phoenix.  He leads a talented squad of castaways: Luis Scola (amnestied by the Houston Rockets), former Timberwolves swingmen Wes Johnson and Michael Beasley, and the Polish Hammer Marcin Gortat—all of whom will be recipients of Dragic's wizardry at the point.  

Dragic is going to have a career year, and this award usually seems to go to those guys who have had it all along.

MIP: JaVale McGee (3-1)

JaVale McGee has had the talent to emerge as a premier center, and after putting in a summer of work with Hakeem Olajuwon, he may show the necessary improvements in his confidence to utilize his arsenal. 

McGee has displayed amazing coordination and athleticism, especially so in his two-ball, two-goal dunk in the 2011 Sprite Slam Dunk Contest (see video).  

McGee has tantalizing tools, which should eventually render him a great player. 

MIP: Nikola Pekovic (3-1)

Nikola Pekovic already had an outstanding end to last season.  Over the last two months of the 2011-12 season, Pek averaged 15.4 points per game and grabbed 7.5 boards per night in just under 30 minutes per game.  

If Pek continues that level of play for an entire season, he should win this award.  The fact that he shares the frontcourt with Kevin Love only increases his chances of standing out on a much-improved Timberwolves team. 

Pek should be a favorite to win this award, and it is really between he, McGee and the favorite, Dragic.

Most Improved Player: the Best of the Rest

Derrick Williams (13-2)

Derrick Williams has impressed thus far this preseason after a lackluster rookie campaign.  The No. 2 overall pick in 2011 has a lot of potential and should see a significant enough uptick in minutes to have an outside shot at winning this award.

Michael Beasley (7-1)

It's unclear whether or not Michael Beasley has already reached his potential, but leaving Minnesota should afford him more of an opportunity to find out.  Whether or not he has reached his apex as a player, he'll be a primary option in the Phoenix Suns' offense and has the potential to put up over 20 a game, at least if his original prospects coming out of K-State hold any weight.

Patrick Patterson (8-1)

Patrick Patterson seems to have a lock on the starting power forward job in Houston, and he's never been short on skills.  Patterson is a good rebounder, good mid-range shooter, and an above-average athlete.  

The Rockets have the potential to be a surprise team with the acquisition of James Harden and the high yet unknown upside of Jeremy Lin.  Serving as the perfect role player for such a team could suit Patterson well.

Byron Mullens (8-1)

Byron Mullens will be the starting center in Charlotte this year, and he showed a lot of improvement last year in his third year in the league.  Joining the Bobcats after spending his first two years with the Oklahoma City Thunder (who drafted him No. 24 overall in 2009), Mullens put up 9.3 points per game while grabbing five rebounds a game.  

Mullens seems to be capable of putting up a line of 14 points per game and eight rebounds per game, though, and that would warrant consideration for this award.

Greivis Vasquez (10-1)

Austin Rivers is presumably the future in New Orleans, but he's going to need time and seasoning.  That's good for Greivis Vasquez, who will assume the starting point guard duties for the time being.  He leads a talented cast of Hornets, and with passing targets like Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson, Vasquez may put up far better numbers than anyone is expecting.  

In his per-36 minutes last year, Vasquez posted 12.4 points per game and dished out 7.6 assists, with only 3.1 turnovers.  That kind of per-minute production should translate to a line of about 11 and seven this year, assuming Vasquez sees 32 minutes per game.

Omer Asik (12-1)

Omer Asik averaged 13 rebounds per 36 minutes last year while also blocking 2.5 shots per-36.  He'll see 30-plus minutes a night in Houston, and if he can stay out of foul trouble, he should pick up a number of double-doubles.  The improvement is expected, and what would win this award for Asik is if he displayed some offensive improvement.  

Perhaps Asik is a year away from winning this award, as after establishing himself this year and then working hard on his offensive game, he could challenge for the award in 2013-14.  

Even so, Asik can't be ignored for this award this year, if defense is to be given its due consideration in voting.

2012-13 Sixth Man of the Year Award

James Harden won the Sixth Man of the Year award in 2012, and he won't be a threat to win it this year because he'll likely be starting in Houston this season.  

The candidates to win this award are the usual culprits, with the exception of the favorite, who is a guy that just stumbled into a role as a sixth man after having started all last year for his former team.

Sixth Man: Thaddeus Young (10-1)

Thaddeus Young showed during the 2012 playoffs that he has the talent to thrive on the big stage.  Coming off the bench, Young averaged 7.7 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game in 21 minutes a night.  He was better during the season, though. 

During the regular season, Young averaged 12.8 points per game in just under 28 minutes of play per night.  

Young shot over 50 percent from the floor and did a good job on both power forwards and small forwards defensively last year.  His versatility along with the fact that the Sixers are likely a team on the rise should render him a favorite to win this award, and 10-1 is about right considering Young's scoring must increase to win this award.

Sixth Man: J.R. Smith (8-1)

This award seems suited to J.R. Smith.  He comes off the bench and lights it up.  That's what sixth men are often all about, and Smith will play an important role as an assassin off the bench for the New York Knicks.  

If Smith really gets it cooking and begins to gain some consistency, he could finally fulfill some of the vast potential we only saw glimpses of when he played under George Karl in Denver.

Sixth Man: Jamal Crawford (7-1)

Jamal Crawford should occupy his usual role of gunner off the bench for the L.A. Clippers this season.  The Clips will welcome Crawford's shooting off the bench, and he should be given ample opportunity to post big numbers as a primary beneficiary of Blake Griffin and Chris Paul double-teams.  

Crawford is now nearly 33 years of age, but he hasn't slowed down much.  He's still a lethal shooter and he's very good in the clutch.

Sixth Man: Taj Gibson (6-1)

Taj Gibson is in a contract year and is a very good young player.  Well, he's not that young, because he came into the league at age 24 and is now 27.  Still, Gibson is a year or two from entering his prime, and is a good shot-blocker and rebounder who can take the next step by looking to score more.  

With Carlos Boozer aging and becoming a possible amnesty-clause candidate, Gibson must shine this year to land himself a big pay day in the summer of 2013 when he becomes a restricted free agent.

Sixth Man: Jason Terry (11-2)

Jason Terry won the award in 2008-09 and is poised to do the same again this year in Celtics' green.  Terry replaces Ray Allen as the primary shooter in the Boston backcourt as a guy who is going to get looks and chances.  Boston needs second-unit scoring.  

Terry will thrive under Doc Rivers and will be given strong consideration for this award if the C's play up to their high expectations.

Sixth Man: Manu Ginobili (9-2)

It'd be hard to leave Manu Ginobili out of consideration for the Sixth Man of the Year award considering he's one of the best sixth men in NBA history and has already won the award in 2007-08. 

He's still just as good, which makes Ginobili a threat to win this award again, particularly if the San Antonio Spurs remain atop the Western Conference. 

Sixth Man: Lou Williams (4-1)

Lou Williams leaves a Philadelphia squad that is going to miss him far more than they realize at this point in time. 

He is a dynamic scorer off the bench and the best sixth man of the younger generation of players in the NBA.  In Atlanta, he is going to be called upon heavily to produce scoring and will likely serve as a closer quite often as their best perimeter player.

Sixth Man: Ryan Anderson (3-1)

Ryan Anderson won the Most Improved Player of the Year last year, and if he won the Sixth Man of the Year award this year, he would be the only the second player in NBA history to win both awards.  

The first?  Darrell Armstrong, another former Orlando Magic player.  Armstrong won both of his with the Magic, but Anderson just moved on as the result of a cap-clearing trade that sent him to New Orleans in exchange for Gustavo Ayon and a $7.5 million trade cap exception.

That digression aside, Anderson will be the sixth man this year for the New Orleans Hornets.  If he is utilized correctly, this could be a perfect role for Anderson.  He's not shy about shooting the ball, and the Hornets' second unit could use Anderson's shooting and rebounding ability when Anthony Davis and/or Robin Lopez are out of the game.  

Anderson is a better rebounder than he is given credit for and averaged 7.7 rebounds per game last year with the Magic.  There's a good chance Anderson continues his success in an entirely different role on a new team, and if he does, he could secure the Sixth Man of the Year award.

2012-13 NBA Coach of the Year Award

The Coach of the Year award usually goes to one of the coaches who does the most with the least talent or to a coach who takes a good team to the league's best record.  That dichotomy is quite different in nature, and it doesn't really help narrow down the field much.  There are surprises every year for this award.

The search for candidates I believe can be trimmed down to six coaches, but two long shots are included to make things interesting.  Coach of the Year is one of the more speculative awards, because any surprise team could produce a coach of the year.

Lionel Hollins, Memphis Grizzlies (18-1)

Lionel Hollins didn't get a single vote last year, and it's a bit perplexing as to why.  He's taken an average squad and made noise in three consecutive seasons.  The Grizzlies have one of the best frontcourts in basketball in Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and Hollins will be able to take this squad to one of the West's best records again.  

The question becomes as to whether they can take that next step into being an elite contender, and it's unclear where Hollins is going to draw that from.  

Rudy Gay may or may not be capable of getting any better.  Is Marc Gasol going to be as good as his older brother?  

Hollins needs some answers for how the Grizzlies are going to make enough noise to win him an award he received only six first-place votes for last season.

Kevin McHale, Houston Rockets (15-1)

Kevin McHale is a dark horse for this award.  He just lucked out and landed James Harden in a trade, and Jeremy Lin will now breathe a sigh of relief that he doesn't have to be the go-to alpha dog all season.  

Lin can go back to playing point guard now, and he's not bad at at it.  If McHale can tame Lin and cut his turnovers down while maximizing the talents of James Harden, the Rockets can go a lot further than most analysts are expecting them to.  

The Rockets have a fine collection of young talent in Chandler Parsons, Royce White, Terrence Jones, Patrick Patterson and Omer Asik, and the team could contend for the eighth seed in the Western Conference now that they have James Harden.  That kind of improvement would turn heads around the league.

Mike Brown, Los Angeles Lakers (7-2)

If the Los Angeles Lakers come together in perfect cohesion, blend together and storm through the regular season—if there is a perfect storm—Mike Brown wins the Coach of the Year award.  

He's already been praised in the past for being a good defensive coach, and now he'll have the chance to put his schemes together with the presence of a three-time Defensive Player of the Year at the 5-spot.  

Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol can still defend reasonably well, and while Steve Nash will be a liability, Howard will cover all those blunders.  Brown can put together a defensive symphony with Howard, though, which could secure the award for him.

George Karl, Denver Nuggets (5-1)

George Karl has a talented squad out in Denver, a team that many seem to be sleeping on.  Bovada had the odds for a Nuggets championship at 66-1 two weeks ago and has since shifted the line to 33-1. 

The Nuggets have doubled in likelihood to win the championship according to oddsmakers, and Karl knows he has a talented enough team to beat anyone in the West.

Scott Brooks, Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1)

Scott Brooks now has the misfortune of coaching the Oklahoma City Thunder without James Harden, but if his squad manages to win the West's best regular-season record with Kevin Martin in lieu of Harden, Brooks could win this award. 

Brooks received nine points in voting last year, with two second-team votes and three third-team votes.

Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics (3-1)

Doc Rivers is in the fortunate position of having a veteran team that is built to win now.  Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett carry value only in such a position, and both are now likely to retire as Celtics.  Rajon Rondo remains the key to the Celtics' attack, and they are going to go as far as he carries them.  

But never underestimate the role that Rivers' defensive schemes have in the C's success.  Between Rivers and Garnett, the C's have the coaching on and off the floor to communicate and play great team defense, and Rivers is due to win this award again, as he did in 2000 with the Orlando Magic. Rivers received 26 points in voting last year, with one first-place vote and four second-place votes.

Frank Vogel, Indiana Pacers (9-2)

Indiana gave the eventual champion Miami Heat a lot of trouble in the playoffs, and there's always a little bit of favor shown to coaches who coach teams without superstars.  The Pacers have several very good players.  

Paul George, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert are all All-Star talents.  

What Vogel lacks a true superstar, and if he found a way to take the Pacers to the best record in the East, which is not entirely inconceivable, the award would be his.  Last year, Vogel finished third in voting with 161 points and seven first-place votes.

Tom Thibodeau, Chicago Bulls (9-2)

Tom Thibodeau is a favorite for very good reason: If the Bulls succeed without Derrick Rose, it is going to make him look like a genius.  And that's the thing: the Bulls likely will succeed without Rose.  

That's not to say Chicago is going to storm through with the East's best record as they did the last two seasons with Rose, but the Bulls will win 45 to 50 games. Whether Rose returns or not, that will be considered a great success.  

It's also a feel-good story—a coach who takes a cast of role players without their superstar to unforeseen heights.  Seems almost too likely.  Thibodeau received the second-most votes last year in losing to Gregg Popovich, whose Spurs secured the West's best record.