Playing Fact or Fiction with Every 2012-13 NBA Title Contender's Chances

There are three true contenders in the NBA this season and four other teams that have outside longer shots at it.  The Miami Heat are the obvious choice by most to repeat, with the best odds in Vegas at 11/5 on Bovada.  The Lakers have what is on paper the best starting five possibly ever, while the Thunder's Big Three is nearly tantamount to Miami's, and could be better in time.

The Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers all could make some noise and are decent shots to take the Larry O'Brien, but the NBA's concentration of talent on the elite teams is unprecedented.  Between the Lakers, Heat and Thunder, there are roughly 10 of the best 20 players in the league.  

That disparity renders the league top heavy, so teams like the Brooklyn Nets (30/1), Indiana Pacers (35/1), New York Knicks (35/1) and Memphis Grizzlies (35/1) don't really have much of a chance, despite the fact that both the Pacers and Grizzlies have won playoff series and made some noise.  

Anything can happen, sure, but the favorites usually win in most major sports, and the NBA is no exception.  Not since the 1995 Houston Rockets (47-35 record) has a team with less than 50 wins won an NBA title, and the Pacers and Grizzlies aren't more than a few wins above that mark (they both essentially had what would have equated to 50 win seasons in an 82 game season, if their records were projected based on win percentages). 

Also, unlike that Rockets squad, they lack an NBA legend like Hakeem Olajuwon.  That is what both teams really lack:  a premier franchise player, while teams like Oklahoma City, Miami and the Lakers have three or four per team.

That said, let's evaluate the top eight teams in the league and determine how much legitimacy there is to their title chances.

Denver Nuggets (50/1)

Including the Nuggets among the other seven teams in this slide show may seem questionable to some, but the Nuggets have a very unique team situation, given the concentration of talent and extreme roster depth, and it never hurts to include a long shot in this discussion.

Ty Lawson may be the key to this team reaching the NBA Finals, in the somewhat unlikely event that it happens.  Lawson has always shown big game potential, and his scoring production has increased every year in the league so far.  

As a rookie, Lawson averaged 8.3 points per game, increased that to 11.7 as a second year player, and he bested that last year with 16.4 points per game in 34 minutes per game.  He's also becoming a better facilitator, with 6.6 assists per game last season, an improvement of almost two per game over his 2010-11 campaign.  For a team without a legitimate superstar, Lawson has the highest probability of turning into such a player.

Danilo Gallinari is also a dead-eye shooter, and Andre Iguodala is an All-NBA-level defender.  Throwing in the experience of Andre Miller, the explosive rebounding of Kenneth Faried, a developing JaVale McGee, and great and versatile wing defenders in Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer, and the Nuggets have a rotation capable of running a lot of teams right out of the gym—especially at home in the high altitude Pepsi Center.

It's not hard to imagine the Nuggets following the path of the Detroit Pistons championship teams of last decade, though it would be with an entirely different playing style based around high octane offense rather than rugged blue collar defense. 

That said, the Nuggets have a better chance at a championship than the Nets, Grizzlies, Pacers and Knicks—who all have a better chance at a championship according to Vegas.

Don't sleep on Denver.

Los Angeles Clippers (25/1)

The L.A. Clippers may have the league's deepest team, and they have the best point guard in the league running it in Chris Paul.  There's good reason to believe that they can sneak into the Western Conference Finals, and then anything can happen.  Before Chauncey Billups went down for the year, they were looking like a much more real threat to be a playoff CInderella.

Expectations are high for the Clippers, but they aren't afforded the same level of scrutiny as the other team in L.A., nor that of the Heat and Thunder.  Maybe that will change with a young talented starting five and veterans coming off the bench to add experience and leadership, like Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom and Grant Hill.  

If DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin can continue to mature and reap the benefits of Chris Paul lob passes and set-ups, the Clippers will do some damage come this year's playoffs.  Griffin worked hard on his offensive arsenal this offseason, and is said to have improved his mid-range game and ball handling even more.  He's looking to initiate breaks, and though he has struggled a little with turnovers, part of that is preseason rust and adjusting to new teammates.  

The Clippers have to develop to reach the next level, but their roster goes 10 to 12 players deep, and they'll be able to keep the players on the court fresh and out of foul trouble.  Sometimes that can go a long way towards wearing down a team with better top end talent, and save the Nuggets, there aren't many teams that will be able to go down to the end of their bench to find productive and worthwhile players ready to take the court.

There's something to be said for depth and the Clippers penetrating point guard Chris Paul, and the Clippers stand a real chance of being a surprise team.  As to whether they can be a true contender and more than just a Cinderella team that gets to the Western Conference Finals (just to lose to the Thunder or Lakers) remains to be seen.

San Antonio Spurs (18/1)

It's hard to count out a team that had the best record in the Western Conference last year.  The Spurs tied the Chicago Bulls for the best record in the league last year overall, too, and no one really seems to be giving them the respect afforded to a team that has remained on top.  And they have a host of young players to assume the receding roles of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

Gregg Popovich will ensure that this team continues to improve as their aged stars decline.  Tiago Splitter, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Gary Neal all form a part of the new nucleus of the Spurs, what the team will become when it is only Tony Parker of the Championship era remaining.  

The Spurs still are a team that can win a title, and the 18/1 odds don't really indicate that.  They're built for postseason success, but thrive in the regular season, too.  The age and experience of their roster is always an added edge over younger teams, and they showed it against the Los Angeles Clippers, as they swept Chris Paul and Blake Griffin en route to being tripped up by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.

It seemed after that defeat, oddsmakers and fans wrote the Spurs off, but there's really no good reason for that.  Tim Duncan's impact goes far beyond his stats and he remains a top power forward even in these waning years of his career.  He signed a three year extension, too, indicating to fans and management alike that he is committed to keeping the Spurs at the top of the league for at least a few more seasons.  

It's hard to count a team out with a legend and leader like Duncan, and Manu Ginobili is still posting the same numbers he did in his prime.  

Tony Parker is still in the heart of his prime.  The Spurs are a much more real threat than a lot of analysts are giving them credit for, citing the usual as the reason why they can't take home another title:  age.  

Age is just a number.

Boston Celtics (18/1)

Just about a month ago, I wrote for Bleacher Report that the Celtics are the value pick and best chance of all underdogs at an NBA championship.  

Since that time, things have only begun to look even more promising.  Their Vegas odds have gone from 22/1 to 18/1...Jared Sullinger has impressed in the preseason thus far and drawn the praise of teammate Kevin Garnett.  Darko Milicic was signed the day I wrote that, and Doc Rivers has gushed at the added lineup flexibility that having a capable 7-footer affords. 

Courtney Lee and Jason Terry have begun to integrate themselves seamlessly with the holdovers from last year's roster, and even unheralded camp invitees like Dionte Christmas have shown that the C's may have more going on than meets the eye.  

Rajon Rondo remains the key to the C's.  He has entered elite territory as an NBA point guard but still remains a jumper away from being a Hall of Fame type of talent.  If Rondo can learn to shoot the ball, he'll be nearly unstoppable, which will make the Celtics even more difficult to beat.  Unfortunately, we've seen no real indication that Rondo's shot is any less ugly or any more effective thus far.

They have depth, especially in the backcourt, and as I wrote in that aforementioned piece, Avery Bradley's health is the most important factor in their title hopes.  They really were an Avery Bradley injury away from being good enough to beat the Miami Heat, and they showed it by leading James and company 3-2 before dropping the final two games of the series.  

With Bradley and Jeff Green returning from heart surgery, the Celtics add two essential perimeter defenders to combat the premier wing players in the league.  The difference is profound, as opposing teams shot 38.2 percent with Bradley on the court last year, and 44 percent while he was on the bench.  

That would have made a difference last year against the Heat, and it will this year against whomever the C's encounter in the 2013 playoffs.

Chicago Bulls (14/1)

The Chicago Bulls are a curious case.  On one hand you have a team that could very well have a healthy Derrick Rose for the 2013 Playoffs.  The question is how healthy and how primed, after spending the greater part of a year rehabbing an ACL he had surgery on.  The surgery was successful, but how successful can the Bulls be without Rose?

They are a cast of role players at this point, led by Luol Deng for this rough period without Rose.  Deng made his first All-Star team last season and will likely have a career year, but if Rose isn't able to get his timing back quick enough, any bet on the Bulls' futures odds is a pretty precarious risk. 

In fact, it's difficult to fathom how Vegas oddsmakers can give the Bulls a better chance of winning a title than the three teams that preceded them in this slide show.  Those teams are at least at full health, while any gamble on the Bulls hinges on the progress of Rose's ACL.

That all said, Tom Thibodeau is a tough coach who knows both how to get the most out of his players and how to make this time count.  The Bulls could sit and whine that Rose is out, or address issues that need to be addressed anyway.  Can Carlos Boozer return to form?  Does Joakim Noah have any offensive game to speak of?  Is Taj Gibson worth re-signing to a big extension after the season?  These are all things the Bulls need to know.

It's implausible to think they get Rose back and develop into a contender in short time.  In fact, Rose really should just sit out the rest of the season to ensure he's at full health rather than risk rushing back and endangering his career.  

The Bulls will be foolish to push him back before he's ready just for the sake of trying at a title this year.  They still need to add some pieces around Rose, such as a point guard who can allow Rose to play off the ball more.  C.J. Watson as a scoring point was a redundancy, and Kirk Hinrich could possibly play that crucial role. 

Chicago will see what Hinrich has left in the tank, too, as he starts in the interim.  The Bulls just aren't a good value at 12/1, and really should be at least 30/1, given the fact that their title hopes all rest on the strength of one ligament.

Oklahoma City Thunder (9/2)

The Thunder are the reigning Western Conference Champs, but have their hopes set far higher and hope to bring home their first championship for Oklahoma City this year.  Kevin Durant has shown he is a true elite player, after having led the league in scoring for the last three seasons, and this year he may enter the MVP discussions and finally come away with the award.  But only if Russell Westbrook lets him.

Westbrook is the key to this team realizing its true potential.  He still turns the ball over too much (3.6 turnovers per game with only 5.5 assists), and must learn a lot as an NBA point guard before the Thunder are going to reach their true apex.  Durant will score his points, and Westbrook his, too; but involving James Harden and Serge Ibaka will be what makes the Thunder offense unstoppable.  

Harden has the talent to be a No. 1 option on a lot of teams and Ibaka's jumper is making him a decent scoring option who is probably capable of more still.  Defensive stoppers Thabo Sefolosha and Kendrick Perkins will never provide much offense, but that isn't always a role player's job. Their (offensive) liabilities are minimal with the Thunder's trio of Durant, Westbrook and Harden able to do so much.

The Thunder need to make sure they can secure home court advantage.  They are a very tough team to beat at home, and posted a 26-7 record at Chesapeake Energy Arena.  Their young talent is capable of running teams off the court, and in their home venue they do an excellent job of feeding off the crowd.  

Beyond that important inclusion, Durant realizes the time is now, but he and the Thunder fear that James Harden may not sign an extension in the summer of 2013, because he needs to sacrifice money to remain with the team.  This year is of even greater importance without knowing that they can keep the band together, so expect a near sense of desperation on the part of a young team that is still years away from entering their true prime and peak, if they remain together.

The Thunder have to clear the Lakers to get back to the Heat, and once they get there, they need to figure out what they'll do with LeBron James.  But it's one thing at a time for a team that truly is the third favorite without any ambiguity.  The Heat and Lakers are both better.

Los Angeles Lakers (5/2)

The Lakers are not a lock to win the Western Conference by any means, but their odds are the best, and on paper, they have a real shot at dethroning the Heat.  In fact, it seems it is the Heat that should be worried.

For as good as Miami's Big Three is, the Lakers have a Big Four.  The Heat have the best player in the league, the Lakers have the best center in the league.  It's the ability of Steve Nash to make his teammates better that should worry Erik Spoelstra and the Heat.  

Dwight Howard is going to be twice the monster, while Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant are going to reap the benefits of the fact that the Lakers now have an explosive rebounder and finisher in the paint to both clean up on their misses and provide a finisher around the hoop when they break down defenses.

The Lakers aren't as deep as the Thunder, nor even Miami, really, but the Big Four is a quartet that will pose numerous problems, especially given the fact that Nash and Bryant are both such dead-eye shooters that will feast on the open looks that having Gasol and Howard inside will provide.  

Antawn Jamison and Metta World Peace round out the Lakers' top six, while their supporting bench players like Jodie Meeks, Devin Ebanks and Jordan Hill will be able to contend with most second units and keep games close while the starters rest. 

Depth will be a question mark in the eyes of some critics, but the Lakers have more of it than people are giving them credit for.  Meeks is a very good shooter, Jamison still a versatile power forward capable of stretching defenses, and Ebanks and Hill are both dynamic young players with a lot of improvements still to make.

Ultimately, the Lakers will go as far as Kobe's late game heroics carry them.  They'll have the talent to be in most games, and Kobe's ability to close teams out should be what makes the difference.  Expect No. 24's role to change this season, as he begins to adapt to having more talented teammates and the consequences of age and declining athleticism.  If he can begin to sacrifice his ego and personal stats, he could find himself tying Michael Jordan in rings this year, for all of the right reasons.

Miami Heat (11/5)

The Heat have to be the favorites as a defending champion that only got better over the offseason, and they have a great chance at repeating this season—especially if their role players step up and fill their respective niches offensively and defensively.

The Heat may be on the verge of beginning a dynasty, but will have a couple of tough opponents in the aforementioned Thunder and Lakers.  Even if they don't reel off three straight, or repeat, the window will be open long enough for LeBron James to win a few more rings and begin to enter the realm of discussion that renders him a top-10 player all-time.

The key will be how the guys around James and Dwyane Wade complement his impressive and well rounded game.  Third fiddle Chris Bosh will be adjusting to life as an NBA center after spending the last few seasons playing the 4-spot. 

Shane Battier has shifted to power forward later in his career, and will yield time to LBJ when he needs to slide over to cover an opposing power forward or exploit a matchup.  

Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis just need to hit their open threes, while Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole need to only prove to be decent defenders and stop-gap point guards since James will be playing so much point-forward. 

Udonis Haslem needs only to be as steady and reliable as he has been over his career, and Mike Miller's main objective is remaining healthy enough to hit big shots when the Heat need it.  Joel Anthony must continue to make strides offensively to avoid being a liability at that end of the court.

The Heat's work is cut out for them, but their title chances are strong and the question marks that surround their team seem to be issues that they can address and have been addressing over the course of the last two seasons. 

2010-11, their first season together as a Big Three, proved to be a learning process, and last year brought the reward.  It's now just a matter of seeing how many more championships can be built upon last year's.