Why the Detroit Tigers' Best Baseball Is Still Ahead of Them

The Detroit Tigers have been a slight disappointment this season as most baseball observers and analysts expected them to easily win the AL Central division and nab one of the American League's postseason bids.

Detroit hasn't quite followed that plan so far this year. At 69-60, as of Aug. 30, the Tigers are three games behind the Chicago White Sox for second place in the division and two games out of the lead for one of the AL's two wild-card playoff spots. 

At this time last year, the Tigers were 74-61 with a five-game lead over the White Sox. That helped establish a foothold toward an eventual division title, and the Tigers ended up finishing ahead of the competition by 15 games.  

With the exception of two winning streaks before the All-Star break and at the beginning of August, Detroit hasn't played nearly as well as expected. The Tigers are behind their pace of last season, but they still have a month to get hot and assert themselves in the AL Central as they did last year. Here's how they can do it. 

All of the statistics cited here are from Baseball-Reference. 

The Schedule is Favorable

In terms of the teams left on their schedule for the rest of the season, the Tigers have a very slight advantage.

The combined winning percentage of the clubs remaining on Detroit's schedule is .485 (363-386). The teams on the White Sox's schedule have a total winning percentage of .491 (492-510). Six percentage points doesn't seem like a big margin in the Tigers' favor.

Nor does their number of series against teams with winning records. Detroit has five series against winning teams through the rest of the season. The Tigers face the Los Angeles Angels twice, have one matchup against the Oakland Athletics and, of course, they play the White Sox in two more series. 

Meanwhile, the White Sox also have five series against winning teams. Chicago has one series against the Angels, the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays. 

However, the Seattle Mariners are also on the schedule. While they don't have a winning record at 63-68, the M's have been one of the best teams in baseball during the second half of the season. Seattle has a 26-17 record, accounting for a .628 winning percentage.

The Tigers also end the season with series against the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals, while the White Sox have to play the Rays and Cleveland Indians. The Royals have been major spoilers for Detroit before, but those final two matchups appear to favor the Tigers. 

September Surge

Last year, Detroit blew away the rest of the AL Central during the final month of the season. In September, the Tigers compiled a 20-6 record. 

Miguel Cabrera was explosive during the month. In 111 plate appearances during September, he hit .429/.532/.758 with 12 doubles, six home runs and 21 RBI. 

Prince Fielder was on the Milwaukee Brewers last year, of course. But September was also a fantastic month for him as the Brew Crew made a run at the NL Central title. Fielder hit .330/.459/.705 in 109 plate appearances with nine homers and 18 RBI. 

Justin Verlander lost only once during the second half of last season. In September, he went 4-0 with a 2.55 ERA.  

Another September star was a player most Tigers fans would like to get rid of now. But Delmon Young was a major contributor in the final month of last season. In 107 plate appearances, he hit .270/.308/.500 with six home runs and 20 RBI. 

By comparison, the White Sox went 35-35 during the second half of last year. Their record for September was 11-17, which made September their worst month of the season other than April. 

Adam Dunn was slogging through the worst season of his career, finishing it off with a poor September. Dunn hit .128/.317/.191 with two RBI in 60 plate appearances for the month. 

In 92 plate appearances last September, Paul Konerko hit .200/.293/.350 with three homers and 13 RBI. A.J. Pierzynski hit .247/.265/.376 with two home runs and nine RBI in 98 plate appearances. 

Obviously, much can change from one year to the next. Just because the Tigers had a strong September last season doesn't mean they'll repeat that performance this year. The same applies to the White Sox. They could pull away from Detroit just like the Tigers distanced themselves from the Indians and White Sox last year. 

Head-to-Head Heavies

The Tigers and White Sox will face each other seven more times during the regular season. Unfortunately, the schedule-makers didn't match these two teams up during the final week of September.

But those head-to-head games could end up determining who wins the AL Central. If that's the case, then the Tigers appear to have the advantage in a direct matchup. In their 11 games against each other thus far, Detroit has finished ahead with a 7-4 mark. 

Cabrera is hitting .304/.333/.543 with three homers and six RBI in 48 plate appearances vs. the White Sox. Fielder is batting .429/.489/.595 with a home run and five RBI in 47 plate appearances. Austin Jackson has 50 plate appearances against White Sox pitching this season, during which he's hit .326/.420/.581 with two homers and 10 RBI. 

What the White Sox should most concerned with is how their best pitchers have fared against the Tigers.

Chris Sale has been outstanding this season. But against Detroit, he's allowed eight runs and 12 hits in two starts, losing both outings. 

Jake Peavy has a 5.09 ERA in four starts against the Tigers this year. In 26.2 innings, he's given up 15 runs and 26 hits. 

On the hitting side, Dunn has batted .209/.222/.448 with three home runs and seven RBI in 45 plate appearances against Detroit pitching. Kevin Youkilis has a .135/.135/.324 average in 37 PAs. Alexei Ramirez is batting .250/.268/.400 in 42 PAs. Alex Rios is hitting .200/.263/.343 in 38 PAs. 

One player who's had success against the Tigers this year is Paul Konerko. He's compiled a .341/.386/.585 triple-slash average in 44 plate appearances, adding three homers and four RBI. 

The White Sox need their other stars to follow Konerko's lead in those seven games vs. Detroit. That could help widen their current three-game first-place margin over the Tigers and give them the edge for the AL Central title. 

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