NFL Preseason Betting Trends: Critics Get Last Laugh in Week 1

The Baltimore Ravens entered the 2012 preseason as the most reliable UNDER bet (10-1 past 11 games) and promptly went OVER the total in their first game.

The Green Bay Packers came in as the most reliable OVER wager (15-2 past 17) and immediately played UNDER the total last week.

The Detroit Lions rode a 7-0 ATS preseason streak and, you guessed it, failed to cover in a Week 1 loss to Cleveland. And St. Louis was 7-0 ATS in their past seven preseason road games before getting pummelled at Indianapolis.

Miami? They were on an 11-3-1 ATS run and lost.

Only the Oakland Raiders, who had failed to cover in six straight preseason contests, played along, losing a breathtaking 3-0 game to Dallas (who covered as 2.5-point favorites).

So with all that naysaying about trends, is there anything of handicapping value lurking beneath the surface in Week 2?

In New York, head coach Tom Coughlin’s comments about "winning every game" makes Las Vegas wonder about their match with the New York Jets. The Giants are defending champs and expect to win, while the Jets are toying with Tim Tebow and Wildcat sets.

And who gets home-field advantage here anyway?

The fact the Giants have now covered seven-straight games dating back to last season makes you think they are hot. The fact all the trends crashed and burned in Week 2 makes you want to run in the opposite direction and fade the Giants at the sportsbook window.

And with the Seattle Seahawks cruising along with a 14-4-1 ATS clip, you’d expect them to lose in Denver. But they are 2-13 in 15 regular-season games there since 1989, so maybe they need to buck that trend.

Miami has never lost in the regular season to Carolina, so expect them to lose this week.

Other reverse trends to consider this week are the Jaguars to beat the Saints (They are 1-5 ATS past six regular season against New Orleans.) and Tampa Bay 1-6 in seven regular-season matches against the Titans.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.