MLB Predictions: Predicting Changes for All 6 Division Races for June

We have seen a lot of great performances by MLB teams up to the two month checkpoint in the season.  Some teams have outperformed expectations, while others have grossly underperformed.  

But now, as summer is truly upon us and the heat begins to rise, new teams will jump like the temperatures to the top of the standings.

Let's take a look at all six MLB divisions and predict which teams will in first place on June 30.

AL East: Sorry Orioles Fans, Baltimore Will Slip to the Back of the Pack

On June 1, the Baltimore Orioles stand atop the A.L. East—but they are also in the midst of an extended losing streak.  At seven games over .500, they maintain only a plus-eight in run differential—not a very positive sign.  

This is especially disturbing when all of the other teams behind them sport better differentials and a better team WPA.  

According to Fangraphs, the Orioles sport a minus-2.09 WPA and are one of only two teams in the division to sport a negative WPA. (The Red Sox maintain a minus-0.37.)

Something about this team just reminds me of the Royals and Pirates of recent years that got off to amazing starts, only to crash and burn in fashionably bad style by the break.

With Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto scratching at their heels, the O's won't last much longer.  Expect to see them drop to the bottom of the pack by June 30.

With all this being said, it will be the Rays on top.  I said it at the beginning of the season, and I maintain my position: Tampa Bay is the best team in this division.  

A.L. Central: Detroit Makes a Charge While Cleveland Slips Back to Mediocrity

Let's face it, Detroit's start is a fluke.  They have not played up to their capabilities and are now having to play catch-up, and catch-up is exactly what they will do.  

The Motor City Kitties had nine- and 10-game road trips this month, and just one five-game homestand was sandwiched between. Therefore, this team was due to hit a wall.  

With the schedule returning to normal for June, expect Detroit to do the same and make their way to the top.  But I am not saying they will overtake the White Sox.  I expect Chicago to hold a game lead over the Tigers come the end of June.  

This is going to become a heated battle near the end of the month.

As for Cleveland, the Indians have done this to us before in recent years—gotten off to a hot start just to fade into mediocrity.  At four games over .500 and a minus-24 run differential, the wheels are about to fall off.  Sorry Cleveland, the bus stops in June.

A.L. West: Josh Hamilton and Co. Stave off a Halo Charge and Remain in Control

With the heat of Albert Pujols' bat, comes the heat of the L.A. Angels.  The Angels are another team that was expected to take charge and compete from the start, but that didn't happen.

It has taken Pujols and crew nearly two months to get into a rhythm and make a push at Texas.  Josh Hamilton's Rangers, however, took control from the start and have only recently let lose of their grip ever so slightly.

The Texas starters have battled through some tough outings recently and will need to regain control, which I am confident they will do.  The Halos will be standing on the Rangers' doorstep soon, and the battle of the A.L. West is about to start.

Look for Texas' lead drop only two games in the standings by June 30.

N.L. East: Here Come the Braves, There Go the Mets

The Washington Nationals stand atop the N.L. East ever so slightly over the Miami Marlins on June 1.  It has been a good ride for the Nats, but their time at the top is about to end.  

The Braves have been on a skid over recent weeks, and now, they will pick it back up and make their way to the top of the N.L. East standings by June 30.  Miami and Washington will battle it out behind them for the second spot in the division.

Atlanta maintains the No. 2 offense in the N.L., and that isn't going to be changing soon.  With Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla to get things started every night, the Braves have no issue scoring.  

The only issue they face is the consistency of the young, but very talented, starters. Although, it seems their inconsistencies are stabilizing.

The Miami Marlins have been hot.  But I believe they are going to be a streaky team all year with many ups and downs.  Giancarlo Stanton is a flat-out beast, and the team has ridden his torrid hunt on N.L. pitchers through the month of May.  

But he can't maintain that pace every month.

As for Washington, they have great pitching, but the offense just is not there on a day-in, day-out basis.  They were carried early with clutch hitting by Adam LaRoche that has since cooled off.  Ian Desmond has had a decent month but still lacks on-base abilities with a sub .300 OBP.  Bryce Harper is fun to watch but not ready to carry the offense regularly.

N.L. Central: Cincinnati Thrives While St. Louis Hovers at .500

I predicted last month that the Cincinnati Reds would take a one-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals by the end of May and got bashed for it.

 But on June 1, they stand one and a half games up on the Cards—enough said.

The Cincinnati Reds have finally began to hit their stride and will remain in first place, trotting into June 30 with a five-game lead in the division.  

The starting pitchers have not been off the charts, but they have been good and better than average—this is all the Reds need through six innings.  The final three inning are lights-out.  The bullpen has been phenomenal and with Aroldis Chapman often throwing two of those three innings in crucial spots, it is better than phenomenal. 

Chapman has yet to allow an earned run through the first two months of the MLB season.

The St. Louis Cardinals struggled through the month of May with 13 wins and 16 losses.  Injuries have been a major problem, with the likes of Lance Berkman, John Jay, Skip Shumaker and others finding their way to the DL.  The injuries, however, are not the only reason for the Cardinals fall—the pitching staff has been leveling out with the team ERA rising nearly a full run over the past month.

There was no reason to believe that Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse would continue to dominate like they did early.  You can only ask players to continue performing above the back of their baseball card for so long.  Welcome back to earth.

N.L. West: Justin Upton and the D-Backs Make a Charge at the Dodgers

The Dodgers have been an amazing story this year.  With their star Matt Kemp on the DL, the team has continued to find ways to win.  They have excellent pitching, and catcher A.J. Ellis has been an unexpected force on the team.

But with Kemp out again, how long can we expect them to hold their ground?  Pitchers are eventually going to avoid Andre Ethier and his run-producing bat.

I believe the boys in Arizona are going to ride a hot bat provided by Justin Upton to within a game of the Dodgers' lead by June 30.  June has historically been Justin Upton's breakout month—just check out his splits here over the past three seasons.

I know that the Giants are in second place currently, but with the struggle of "The Freak" and with Barry Zito about to become the Barry Zito of recent past, this team is about to go on a bit of a slide.  

Not to mention, Melky Cabrera is not going to carry the offense and hit .429 every month like he did in May.  Sorry Giants fans, this is just the reality of your situation.