Los Angeles Dodgers: Why Dodgers Won't Hold on to NL West Lead

The early-season story unfolding for the Los Angeles Dodgers has seen them pull away from the pack in the NL West, en route to a sizable lead.

Entering play Sunday, the Dodgers’ record stood at 31-15—the best in baseball. They held a 7.5-game lead over the second-place Giants and a 10.5-game lead over the third-place Diamondbacks. All three teams were victorious Sunday, so the Dodgers’ lead in the west remains the same.

They are doing everything a team has to do in order to win. But can they keep the division lead they’ve held all season and run the table on their way to October?

Here’s why they won’t.

Starting Pitching

The Dodgers have been riding their starters all year. They are second in the NL with a collective 3.01 ERA going into play Sunday.

There have been signs, however, that the unit may be cooling off.

In his last outing (at Arizona, May 23), Ted Lilly could do nothing right. He lasted just 3.1 innings, gave up nine hits and eight runs—all earned—while walking five.

His ERA ballooned from 1.79 to 3.14.

While one rocky start doesn’t mean the season is doomed, it won’t be easy to sustain the great start Dodgers’ fans have enjoyed.

Chris Capuano is an example of how difficult it could get for the Dodgers. Right now, his season ERA is 2.25, which is better than most.

His career first-half ERA is 3.71. It jumps over a full run per nine innings in the second half, at 4.97. Despite appearing in 16 fewer games in the second half of seasons, he has surrendered 12 more home runs there over his career than during the first half.

Get ready for some frustration, fans.

Let’s not stop at Los Angeles’ starters. Some of the club aces around the West have struggled out of the gates. Giants’ ace and two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum sports an unreal 6.41 ERA over his first 10 starts of the 2012 season.

To assume that will continue is naïve.

D’backs front man Ian Kennedy has also struggled, and through his first 10 starts has posted an ERA of 4.65. Last season, Kennedy, in his second campaign with Arizona, finished fourth in the NL Cy Young vote after compiling a 21-4 record with a 2.88 ERA.

When they turn their seasons around, they could feed off that success and begin reeling the Dodgers in. Hypothetical, yes, but also very possible.

Clutch Hitting

In addition to their starting pitchers being No. 2 in the National League, LA’s collective .272 batting average is also No. 2 in the NL.

They have received clutch hit after clutch hit over the first quarter of the season, already celebrating five walk-off victories.

To show you just how clutch the Dodgers have been early in the year, follow along as I rattle off some numbers.

With no one on base, they hit .274 as a team. With the bases loaded, they hit at a .314 clip. Pretty good, right? Put a runner on third with less than two outs, and the team is hitting an astounding .364 with 74 RBI. Just sick.

Compare that with San Francisco’s .220, .242 and .300 averages in the same situations, and the hitting spectrum gets broader.

To get an even better idea of how well LA's situational hitting has been, let’s look at Arizona’s numbers: .251, .214 and .259 averages.

You can look at it through the perspective that because of these numbers, the NL West race will be over by August. Or, you can look at it more realistically and use the old cliché, “What goes up must come down,” and vice versa.

Individually, the Dodgers have been blessed with great hitting. Even when star center fielder Matt Kemp hit the DL with a strained left hamstring, the hitting has not suffered.

Shortstop Jerry Hairston currently leads the team with a .381 BA. He’s a career .260 hitter, however, so he should cool off.

Catcher A.J. Ellis is also enjoying a career year, batting .317, with five HR and 23 RBI.

Coming into 2012 he had played in only 87 games in four seasons in the majors, so his home run and RBI totals are already career-highs. It is unknown how he will deal with the rigors of a full 162-game major league season, so for all we know, he could end up a .300-hitter.

Five Dodgers who play almost every day are hitting well above their career averages. The chances that they all have career-years in 2012 are slim.

When they begin coming back down to earth we will see where LA stands.

Similarly, a guy like Arizona’s Justin Upton only recently has begun to swing a hot bat after he started off 2012 on an extended cold streak. On May 16, he was batting just .221, with three HR and 10 RBI. In 10 games since then, he is hitting .371, with two HR and nine RBI, raising his average to .255.

He is the leader of the D’backs offense, and once he gets going, he can carry his team for weeks at a time. We all saw him do that last year as Arizona came from the depths of the NL West standings early on to win the division crown.

Tenacious Rivals

The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks are not just going to go away. Every team in baseball enjoys hot streaks, and they all endure slumps.

The cream always rises to the top (to quote another overused cliché), and both the Giants and D’backs are too talented across the board to remain under .500 for much longer.

Once the staff aces get it together and the sluggers begin to slug, the race in the NL West will start heating up. By the time the dust settles in early October, the Dodgers will be on the outside looking in.

This team has some talent, but they are performing at a level they likely cannot keep up.

Follow @ShaunMChurchBR