Why the Houston Texans Are the Team to Beat in the AFC South

Like any good team or athlete who has completed a year of good showing, they can’t enter the next without speculation. The good news for the Texans: They’re still the team to beat in their division.

I won’t qualify the argument much more than that, for the season won’t go without its problems. But support for this claim abounds, and the Texans ended up on this side of the offseason with a lot to talk about.

Looking at the state of the AFC South, the challenge for each team is their respective reconstruction. That once-impressive team, the Indianapolis Colts, will work to find their footing post-Peyton Manning with rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck shows early promise, but the rookie quarterback will likely take some time to adjust as a professional in a new offense while the team adjusts under new head coach Chuck Pagano.

Similarly, Jacksonville hopes that a new owner, Shahid Khan, and new coach Mike Mularkey can work with an upgraded corps of receivers and a solid defense returning this year. Mularkey has the ability to boost last year’s last-ranked offense by developing quarterback Blaine Gabbert to work better in the pocket, much like he did with Atlanta’s quarterback Matt Ryan.

The Tennessee Titans are working through their own quarterback problems, and second-year pro Jake Locker appears to be moving in on veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck for the starting QB position this season. However, the Titans will be hurt by the loss of cornerback Cortland Finnegan to the St. Louis Rams—the Texans will lose some good drama as a result.

The Texans have their own reconstructing to do; fortunately, the bulk of theirs started last year. Their quarterback concerns aren’t about Matt Schaub’s ability to play but his ability to stay healthy. While that’s always the concern for players with season-ending injuries, the fact remains that one of the highest-rated quarterbacks in the league will perform as expected as a starter.

He’ll be leading a return cast that includes Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, the newly-contracted Arian Foster and an offensive line all promising repeat performances of last year. Moreover, rookie receivers Keshawn Martin, DeVier Posey and Dwight Jones all appear to have something good to offer—though their place in the offense won’t be established off the bat. Behind the others like Kevin Walter and Lestar Jean, however, they have time to develop.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans defense has its own rebuilding to worry about. The Texans seemed to make this a priority, though, and it appears it will pay off greatly. Although the team lost big names like Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, Houston is ready to play its most promising players in their positions.

Not only will the Texans’ first draft pick Whitney Mercilus add to the strong pass rush, but the Texans’ breakout players including J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed promise to keep Wade Phillips’ 3-4 scheme working well. Altogether, the Texans defense will likely be as effective as it was last year.

It is with these established strengths that the Texans can develop their depth while moving forward in the regular season to make them the team to beat in the AFC South. They’re looking at a good schedule as well, one that features some of their easier matchups—those against Miami, Jacksonville, Denver and Tennessee at the beginning.

This is excellent news, considering the aforementioned depth and rebuilding. This allows the Texans to tweak their depth during the regular season in preparation for two of their toughest midseason games: those against Green Bay and Baltimore consecutively (conveniently followed by a bye week for whatever recuperation necessary). For what it’s worth, both of these games will be at home.

While the end of the season will prove challenging—with games on the road against Chicago, Detroit and New England—the Texans can easily have established their depth by that time, as well as their contention to win the division.

The race to win the AFC South will be a good one this year, if only to see how each team takes advantage of its new identity in 2012. For the Texans, success won’t be easily had.

But with their offseason restructuring and a schedule that allows the team to evolve smartly with each passing week, the Houston Texans are the team to beat in the AFC South.