Why Eastern Conference Final Opponent Is Irrelevant, Heat Are Finals Favorites

It's on to the 2012 NBA Finals for LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat.

And no, that's not a brain fart on my part.

OK, so maybe it's a bit presumptuous to pencil the Heat into the finals for the second year in a row. After all, anything could happen in a seven-game series against the Boston Celtics or the Philadelphia 76ers—injuries, bad games by big stars, poor fashion choices.

But, in all likelihood, the Eastern Conference is officially the Heat's to lose.

The eighth-seeded Sixers, in particular, don't pose much of a threat to the Heat. Miami went 4-0 against Philly during the regular season, winning by an average margin of 13.3 points per game.

Most disconcertingly (for the Sixers, anyway), the Heat shot 50.2 percent from the field in those four games, slicing and dicing their way through a defense that limited its opponents to 42.7 percent shooting during the regular season.

Mind you, the Heat played two of those games without Wade.

The Sixers sport the depth and the young legs to keep up with the run-and-gun Heat, but lack the experience, the shot-making ability and (evidently) the defensive acumen against superstars of LeBron and Wade's caliber to keep up.

The Celtics, on the other hand, pose a decidedly stronger threat to Miami's presumed throne. Boston beat Miami in three of their four meetings, though one of those Celtics' wins came at the very end of the season, when both teams rested their stars and started their scrubs.

In the other three, LeBron and Wade combined for an average of 48 points per game. That would be an excellent total for most tandems, but certainly not for these two Super Friends, who accounted for an average of 65.7 points per game in Miami's three wins to close out the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

But is that gap of nearly 18 points per game a product of the difference in quality of the opponents involved, or are James and Wade just playing that much better now? Do the C's know the secret to stopping the Heatles, or are said Heatles simply unstoppable now that their Dynamic Duo has caught fire?

We may never find out for sure if the C's don't take care of business on their home floor at the TD Garden on Saturday. The C's are susceptible to shortfalls at home, as they demonstrated in Games 1 and 2 of their series with the Sixers, though they managed to escape with a one-point win in the opener.

And even if Boston does prevail, it won't exactly be the same team that beat the Heat two out of three times at or near full strength this season. For one, the C's will be without Avery Bradley on account of shoulder issues suffered during the first two rounds. The second-year stopper out of Texas played an integral part in limiting D-Wade to 17.5 points per game in Boston's two meaningful wins over Miami.

Without Bradley's presence on defense, the Celtics will likely stick Ray Allen on Wade, though that might just as well leave folks in Beantown queasy. Allen's been a non-factor in each of his last four games, in which he's averaged 5.5 points on 36 percent shooting from the field.

Not that Allen's jump shot is some sort of secret anti-Wade weapon. Then again, the fact that it's been malfunctioning of late may leave Wade free to roam the court and terrorize the C's on D. 

The point is, if Allen's bum ankle is affecting his shooting stroke—his most reliable asset—then how do you think it'd impact his ability to defend a fleet-footing flying death machine like D-Wade?

Frankly, how is anyone supposed to slow down him or LeBron? Can the geriatric Celtics be expected to cool them off, with only one full day separating Saturday's Game 7 in Boston and Monday's Game 1 in Miami?

Surely, the Sixers—whose postseason prowess and past success pales in comparison to that of the C's—don't stand much of a chance against those two.

And let's not forget, the Pacers were no slouches either. Indy had the fifth-best record in the NBA this season and seemed to have Miami against the ropes, with Wade floundering and Chris Bosh on the bench, after running out to a 2-1 series lead.

But then Lance Stephenson put his hands around his own neck, and Dwyane Wade paid a visit to Tom Crean, who coached him at Marquette but now oversees the program at Indiana, and it's been nothing but domination since.

Remember, this is all without Bosh, who's been out since suffering a lower abdominal strain in Game 1 but may be back at some point in the Eastern Conference Finals.

And Thursday, they did it without Udonis Haslem as well, even as the Pacers put forth a strong effort to stave off elimination. He'll be back on Monday to give Miami an added dose of size, toughness and jump shooting from 16 feet.

With or without those two, the Heat still look like the team to beat in the East, now that the best of LeBron and D-Wade has been unleashed on the league.

So please, don't mind if I go ahead and pencil Miami into the NBA Finals in my bracket. Now, as for how they might match up with the Oklahoma City Thunder or the San Antonio Spurs...well, that's another story for another night. 

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