2012 Offensive Preview: Question Marks Plague New York Jets Offense

I have heard a lot of wild theories this offseason about the New York Jets' decision to trade for Tim Tebow. Between Trent Dilfer's belief that the Jets draft picks indicated a shift to a Wildcat-based offense and a shmorgishborg of criticism being dished at Mark Sanchez by the entire media and fan community alike, there has been an awful lot of speculation about Sanchez's future and Tebow's role.

I am firmly of the belief that Mark Sanchez is set to take a big step forward in his fourth and fifth seasons with the New York Jets. And, for that matter, I also will gladly go on the record and state that Tim Tebow will not start a single game for New York as long as he's in New York unless Sanchez is hurt or suspended. In other words, Tebow would only start in spot and relief duty, not due to Sanchez's play.

1. The New York Jets' contract extension for Sanchez guarantees his base salaries for the next two seasons

The contract extension gave the Jets about $6.5 million in cap relief this offseason, but more importantly it guaranteed the final two years of Sanchez's rookie deal and will give him a full five seasons with the New York Jets when the 2013 season is over. By that time Jets management will be sure of the direction of Sanchez's development.

In essence, it would do the franchise a disservice to play Tim Tebow when it's paying Sanchez for the next two years no matter what. After 2013, the Jets can cut Sanchez and save $33 million over three seasons. It's unlikely Sanchez is not given his full five years as a starter now.

2. Sanchez came into the league as an underclassmen

Essentially a college senior in his rookie year, many were anticipating Sanchez would not start right away in 2009. Unfortunately, Kellen Clemens' struggles led to Sanchez's need to start from day one—and since then he's missed just one start.

In many ways, you have to give Sanchez a pass for his first year. Statistically, quarterbacks tend to have more success when they come out after their senior year. Sanchez was learning the immensely complicated Brian Schottenheimer offense. In conjunction with learning all of Schotty's terminology, Sanchez was hit with last season's lockout in one of his prime development years.

3. In 2011 the Jets offense lacked supporting talent in several important positions

Despite retaining the same offensive system, the Jets offense was out of sync for what felt like an entire season. Sanchez certainly made his fair share of mistake with 18 interceptions and eight fumbles lost, but in many ways, it's hard to blame him.

The Jets running game averaged just 3.8 yards per carry—well down from 4.5 and 4.4 in 2009 and 2010, respectively—and there were several causes here. First and foremost, the Jets offensive line was hampered by injuries. Nick Mangold got hurt early in the year, which affected him during the first five to six weeks. Matt Slauson struggled in run blocking and ended the season needing massive reconstruction surgery on his upper body. Brandon Moore started training camp on the PUP, and he and Wayne Hunter collectively struggled in run blocking, despite Hunter's success in 2010.

The Jets running game has been the focal point of the offense for more than a decade, allowing quarterbacks to successfully use the play-action fake to create big plays over the top of defenses. Without an effective running game, teams took away Santonio Holmes, who became heavily disgruntled, and Plaxico Burress was ineffective in replacing Braylon Edwards. Despite Burress' wide catch radius, his inability to create separation made him a liability on offense outside of the red zone.

In pass protection, D'Brickashaw Ferguson had probably the worst year he's had since 2007 (his second year in the league), allowing 9.5 sacks.

4. Brian Schottenheimer

The entire offense was falling apart, and instead of adjusting, Brian Schottenheimer stuck to his guns. Admirable, but stupid. When the Jets running game was actually working he seemed to go away from it for long stretches. He'd line Sanchez up with limited protection—often isolating his tackles in one-on-one situations they struggled with last season.

It should surprise nobody that Sanchez's three worst games were all at the end of the season. Schottenheimer's play-calling was absolutely horrid, highlighted by calling more than 60 passing plays against the New York Giants in a game were the Jets were down by three at halftime (Schotty called 30 passing plays in the first half alone).

This inability to adjust to the strengths of his team showed a serious lack of creativity. Add in the offense's robust terminology and strange game plans that often led to Schottenheimer outthinking himself, and it was apparent he needed to go.

5. Tim Tebow is not ready to run an NFL offense

This is obvious to anyone who watches the game. Tebow is not ready to run an NFL offense.

NFL arm or not, he badly needs to improve his mechanics and it showed last season. He is gun shy against man coverage and doesn't do a great job reading zones. It's unknown how high the Jets are on Greg McElroy, though many speculate after last preseason the Jets like what they saw. Even so, McElroy's postseason comments about the Jets locker room won't endear him to anyone. 

If Sanchez gets hurt the Jets will likely move to a Wildcat-based offense, or they'll bring McElroy in for Sanchez and let Tebow continue to be the main gadget player. The bottom line: Tebow is not ready to run an NFL offense—not without some serious help from the coaching staff.

I would be willing to bet money on the fact that Tim Tebow won't start a game without a Sanchez injury or suspension.

So why will Mark Sanchez take a step forward in 2012?

Look at the additions of Stephen Hill, who has already been installed as a starter. If it's to be expected that Jeremy Kerley takes a step forward in 2012 as a slot receiver and Santonio Holmes is used as the primary underneath receiver using his balance and agility to create YAC (while also being occasional deep threat), then it seems only likely that Hill becomes the deep threat—exactly what he did in college. With his size and explosiveness it's probably probable the Jets can use Hill the way they did with Edwards. Adding in Hill's ability to run block makes him a candidate to actually contribute early.

Can the running game find its groove in 2012 with Tony Sparano?

Instead of changing the players, the Jets have decided to change the style of their running game. Sparano, in conjunction with new offensive line coach Dave DeGugliemo, wants the linemen to slim down to increase their athleticism. Many teams prefer bulk when run blocking, but perhaps this indicates the Jets are going to use more zone blocking while running—which would benefit Joe McKnight and Bila' Powell more then anyone else.

I am a huge fan of Shonn Greene, but his inability to pick up extra yardage through his tough running we saw in his rookie year indicates he isn't running with the same power or explosion that made Jets fans fall in love with him in 2009. If Greene can find his 2009 form again, the Jets offense could get right back on track. If not, McKnight or Powell may have a shot at earning some extra playing time.

Who should start at right tackle?

Incumbent Wayne Hunter's worst moment last year was probably when Von Miller, whom Hunter outweighed by about 80 pounds (and was three inches taller than), threw him around like a rag doll in the Jets' upset loss to Denver on Thursday Night Football last November. Hunter was applauded for his excellent relief work in 2010 replacing the injured Damien Woody without the offense really missing a beat and was rewarded with a contract extension. However, his struggles in 2011 beg the question of whether Hunter was just playing for a contract or if Brian Schottenheimer failed to properly manage the Jets offense.

Vlad Ducasse is the other option, and while Ducasse was a second-round pick for the Jets in 2010, he has shown extremely limited ability at guard. At tackle, he's struggled with speedy rushers and has seemed lost. If either of these players is able to benefit from the revamped offensive coaching staff, then the Jets might find a more able running game.

Do the Jets have enough playmakers?

Even with the explosiveness of Stephen Hill, the Jets lack real playmakers on offense if Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez fail to develop chemistry. Joe McKnight has the potential to be a difference-maker and has show he wants to become an every-down back, but showing up to camp with an extra 10 pounds that wasn't fully muscle can't sit well with Jet fans (McKnight actually admitted to eating a lot of McDonalds).  

What role can Tim Tebow have?

Besides being a leader in the locker room, Tebow is going to have an impact as a Wildcat quarterback. Brad Smith showed, at times, the ability to be truly dominant using the Wildcat, but the Jets seemed afraid to let him throw. T

ebow has shown to be a more adept passer then Smith, and when going for deep gadget plays the Jets can use Tebow and Hill much like the Broncos used Tebow and Demaryius Thomas last year. The only difference is that the Jets don't have to rely on that as the basis to their offense.

Used sparingly, but effectively, Tebow can provide the Jets with a wrinkle that most offenses won't have without sacrificing the pro-style system they primarily run.

The wildcard factor: Dustin Keller

Obviously the tight end position took a huge leap in value last season with explosive seasons from Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham that nabbed headlines. However, there were a ton of other tight ends that had big seasons in less explosive offenses—and Keller was one of them. With more legitimate options in the passing game, Keller could take a step back statistically, but he is a mismatch for most defensive players athletically. If he continues to refine his route running Keller could become an upper-tier tight end.

Coaching changes

So Tony Sparano's offense comes in to town. Sparano is a no-nonsense former offensive line coach and play-caller for the Dallas Cowboys as well as head coach of the Dolphins.

Sparano's passing game is much higher percentage in style of throws but requires a really effective running game to be truly successful. It also requires red-zone efficiency (true of any offense) or life can be made very difficult and much more active for the field goal kickers.

On the bright side, this was an area of actual success for the Jets in 2011 so perhaps that will translate into Sparano's offense.

Reserves to watch out for

RB Terrance Ganaway is a big-bodied running back in the mold of Shonn Greene, but found a lot of success and production at Baylor. He could be an effective Brandon Jacobs runner in short-yardage situations if Greene flounders.

WR Jordan White was a highly productive receiver at Western Michigan with very soft hands and good, solid route-running ability. He's not a superathlet, but is agile and willing to make plays over the middle. If he improves his balance he could upset Jeremy Kerley for slot receiver duties—if he makes the team.

TE Hayden Smith is a huge mismatch at 6'8'', 240 pounds. The former rugby and basketball player at Metropolitan State is 27 and could wind up on the practice squad. The Jets also will worry about another team scooping him up.

OT Austin Howard enters his third season out of Northern Iowa. He was claimed off the Ravens practice squad in November. The 6'7'', 333-pounder looked OK in his rookie season appearing in four games for Philadelphia and starting one. If both Wayne Hunter and Vlad Ducasse struggle, which is quite possible, he may very well find himself with a lot more playing time.

Final thoughts

A passing game simplified, a more legitimate deep threat with a wide catch radius, an allegedly repaired relationship between Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes, and a more athletic offensive line all are certainly good starts.

However, Brandon Moore seems to be at the end of his career, and even if Wayne Hunter/Vlad Ducasse lock down that right tackle spot, the Jets still lack athleticism at guard between Slauson's slow feet and Moore's age. The Jets will likely still be unable to effectively run screens next season.

In the meantime, improving the ability to run more high-percentage passing plays that don't require supreme athleticism from the offensive line while also mixing in a healthy helping of the Wildcat could lead to defenses having a very hard time game planning against the Jets. The Jets offense won't be elite in 2012, but it should be significantly more efficient.

Projected depth chart

QB: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Greg McElroy
RB: Shonn Greene, Joe McKnight, Bilal Powell, Terrance Ganaway
FB: John Conner
LWR: Stephen Hill, Chaz Schilens
SWR: Jeremy Kerley, Scotty McKnight, Jordan White
RWR: Santonio Holmes, Chaz Shilens
TE: Dustin Keller, Jeff Cumberland, Hayden Smith
LT: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Austin Howard
LG: Matt Slauson, Robert T. Griffin
C: Nick Mangold
RG: Brandon Moore
RT: Wayne Hunter, Vlad Ducasse