Words with Frenz AFC East Mailbag, with Early 2012 Predictions for Every Team

It's a little early to be predicting win totals—I prefer to wait until training camp—but as we start to get a better feel for what the rosters will look like, we can start doing some way-too-early predictions. And I got a lot of requests for those in this week's mailbag. Interestingly enough, these questions came on the same day that Cantor Gaming released their win total prop bets.

But of course, that's not all. There are a lot of hot button topics, especially for the end of May, and that has left a lot on the mind of the AFC East's faithful fans.

We're like RadioShack: You've got questions, we've got answers. Let's go.

"

@ErikFrenz #WordswithFrenz Hey Eric, you expect that Gronkowski, Waters or Mankins makes it to OTAs this week?

— Steve Balestrieri (@SteveB7SFG) May 24, 2012"

Thanks, Steve.

I'll answer your tweet with another tweet, this one from Tom E. Curran of CSNNE.com:

"

Fells, Mankins, Waters, Vollmer among those not seen at Pats OTAs. Gronk with late appearance.

— Tom E. Curran (@tomecurran) May 24, 2012"

It has been reported (and re-reported, and re-re-reported) that Brian Waters will return to the team, but that day was not today.

As for exactly how healthy Gronkowski is, Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston shared some insight in his weekly chat:

" Gronkowski was on the field for today's OTA, but he was working off to the side, which is a sign that he is not yet 100 percent. The fact he was on the field at all tells me he is making progress. Not all injured players were even on the sidelines for this one."

As for Mankins, his absence would seem to indicate he's not close to getting back on the field. The time table for his recovery has been estimated to have him back on the field by the end of the six-week PUP period or perhaps even later on in the season.

"

@ErikFrenz Possibility of Fanene and Deadrick kicking to the inside on pass rushing downs? Help collapse the pocket.

— Michael Talarski (@MikeET86) May 24, 2012"

I love this question. Thanks, Mike.

Defensive tackle Brandon Deaderick was part of a defensive wrinkle that the Patriots pulled out against the New York Jets in Week 10. While that specific wrinkle may no longer apply now that Mark Anderson is gone, the Patriots put Deaderick into that package specifically because they like his ability to rush the passer and collapse the pocket.

That's exactly what Deaderick was doing when he logged an early sack of Giants quarterback Eli Manning in the Super Bowl. Deaderick rushed the passer on 55.9 percent of snaps in 2012, but the way things developed at the end of the year, I'd be shocked if there wasn't more of that in store for 2012.

As for defensive linemen Jonathan Fanene, I'm really intrigued by what his role will be in the defense. He should be a solid pass rusher in sub packages, as that was one of his primary roles with the Bengals last year in a defense that ran sub packages more than almost any other in the NFL according to PFF's Mike Clay.

Per PFF, 332 of Fanene's 487 defensive snaps (68.2 percent) were as a pass rusher. His 6'4", 291-pound frame would seem to make him a better fit as an interior pass rusher.

Let's get to those predictions.

"

@ErikFrenz Over/under on number of Patriots wins.

— Paul MacInnis (@JohnBuford) May 24, 2012"

Cantor goes with 12, and that seems about right. I would have said 11.5 if you had asked me before I saw that, but we're picking nits now.

I'm not great at math, but one equation I remember from high school: Tom Brady + Bill Belichick >= 10 wins. Given the improvements they've made and the softest schedule in the NFL according to TheRedZone.org, 12 wins seems like almost a lock. But there are no sure things in May.

"

@ErikFrenz what do you think the #jets record will be?

— Hesechiah (@TheRemer) May 24, 2012"

Cantor has the prop bet at 8.5, which I think is fair, and I'll take the over on that, giving the Jets nine or 10 wins. They've made upgrades across the coaching staff and that should hopefully spill over to what is a very talented roster.

Their scheme versatile defense is poised to turn things around, especially if the offense does their job and takes care of the football. Early signs indicate that's been a point of focus from offensive coordinator Tony Sparano at OTAs—he already barked at Tim Tebow for throwing two picks.

"

@ErikFrenz recent odds have the #Dolphins' over/under for wins at 7.5. What's your take?

— Alessandro Miglio (@AlexMiglio) May 24, 2012"

Thanks, Alex. They have it right, because the way I see it, this team is 8-8 at best. Right now, it looks like another losing season is in the cards for the Dolphins, but if they get a breakout campaign or two from some key players, there's no reason that couldn't change.

Their defense should be a solid unit once again, and they're building in the right direction on offense, but for now, the outlook has the Dolphins with another losing record.

"

@ErikFrenz Bills plus or minus 8 wins?

— Christopher Henning (@cshenning) May 24, 2012"

The Bills look like a well-above-average team from a roster standpoint, so I'll go with the over here. The defense looks primed to turn it around from one of the worst to one of the best units in football. The offense had a hot start last year, and with a return to full health, they could be a dominant force once again.

Still, it's up to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to deliver for a full 16-game season, and it's up to head coach Chan Gailey to do the best head coaching job of his career, if the Bills want to break the .500 barrier.

That leads in nicely to the next question...

"

@ErikFrenz given all that buddy has done this off season. Is Chan job on the line if the team fails 2 produce. Or is Chan Buddys "guy"

— Twan (@TWAN_585) May 24, 2012"

Thanks, Twan.

Let's take a look at Gailey's win-loss record in his career: 28-36 in two head coaching stints. 

Now, let's take a look at the amount of money the Bills have spent this offseason: six years, $96 million for defensive end Mario Williams; four years, $27.5 million for defensive end Mark Anderson; five years, 36.25 million for wide receiver Stevie Johnson; three years, $10.8 million for running back Fred Jackson. Not to mention the six years, $59 million they invested in Fitzpatrick last year.

That's all the makings for a put-up-or-shut-up season for Gailey's crew. 

On the contrary, though, the Bills are finally building toward something. That's a phrase that hasn't been heard a whole lot in Western New York of late.

Toward what, exactly? Toward a team that could contend for years. Toward an offense that, given a little more time and fewer injuries, might be one of the better units in the league.

The five players listed above are all entering the first year of their contracts, so it's not incredibly likely that Buddy Nix will blow the whole thing up if the Bills don't deliver this year.

Now, if they have a losing record, you could probably say Gailey's job might be in jeopardy in 2013. If they don't deliver in 2012, though, he's probably safe.

"

@ErikFrenz How good do you think Ryan Tannehill will be?Do you think he'll start Week 1 against the Houston Texans?

— Christopher Allen (@CHRISALLEN3285) May 24, 2012"

How good will he be? Well, the recent history of quarterbacks taken in the top 10 is hard to draw concrete conclusions from. 

But he couldn't have landed in a much better place for his talents to grow. He's working with a quarterbacks best friend in head coach Joe Philbin and his old comrade from Texas A&M in Mike Sherman. 

The offense has already been tailored to him according the Palm Beach Post, featuring a lot of the same material as what he worked with as an Aggie.

With two veteran quarterbacks in front of him, there's no reason he shouldn't sit on the bench for a year and learn the NFL. There would be no harm in that, as opposed to the alternative, which would be to send him out there if he isn't ready to run an NFL offense, or if the offense isn't ready for him.

"

@ErikFrenz Do you believe parting ways with Brandon Marshall is going to ruin the offense or fix the locker room in Miami?

— Jeremy Joseph Dawson (@JDawson8190) May 24, 2012"

I don't think it's going to ruin the offense, Jeremy. Both Philbin and quarterback Matt Moore have come out in favor of the fact that there will be no true No. 1 wide receiver in the offense; it forces an offense to defend every option like a No. 1 option, with every player being an equal threat to get the ball on every down.

Losing Marshall shouldn't hurt too much, but that's only if a group of wide receivers can step up as a whole and replace the production they lost when they traded him.

While he may have had a slight impact on the locker room, it wasn't bad enough to cause discord, as none was ever reported with his teammates.

Got time for one more.

"

@ErikFrenz Who will have a better year for the #Jets, Q. Coples, or M. Wilkerson

— Ryan Riddle (@Ryan_Riddle) May 24, 2012"

To me, it's Muhammad Wilkerson. The reason being he's already proven his value and versatility in the Jets defense. Per PFF, he played 606 snaps in 2011: 303 in run defense, 298 as a pass rusher (five in coverage). Versatility will probably be the name of the game for the Jets defense this year.

With new defensive line coach Karl Dunbar, Quinton Coples is primed for a solid rookie campaign, but how much can he give you when he's not rushing the passer? His presence could draw double teams but he's not going to be plugging any lanes anytime soon. If anything, Coples may have the more successful season on paper with more sacks and/or pressures, but Wilkerson will be a more vital piece to the Jets defense.

Fair warning: I will be gone for the later part of the afternoon as I move, and will be "on-call" on Monday, but will mostly be away from the computer. With that, I wish you all a happy Memorial Day weekend, one of only 13 more weekends until the official start of the NFL season!

Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be sure to follow Erik on Twitter and '"like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to keep up with all the updates.