NBA Playoffs 2012: 5 Reasons to Believe Miami Heat Will Advance to NBA Finals
At the beginning of the season, the Miami Heat were predicted as favorites to make a second straight NBA Finals appearance in the 2012 NBA playoffs. Their swift handling of the New York Knicks showed they were prepared for the playoffs, dominating their wins with suffocating defense.
However, with Chris Bosh out due to an abdominal strain, the Heat's contention for the NBA title is in jeopardy. Yet with a dynamic duo of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and a cast of solid role players, they still have the firepower to burn their Eastern Conference foes and make a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
LeBron James Will Be Too Much for Opposing Teams
1 of 6LeBron James somehow topped himself once again this season, averaging 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists, along with a career-best .531 percent shooting. His efforts were awarded with the MVP award, as he regularly dominated opposing teams.
Conversely, as the season went on his newly developed post-game began to vanish. James showcased it against the Dallas Mavericks in the first game of the season, going off for 36 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in just 36 minutes of play. However, old habits die hard and James slowly regressed back to his perimeter scoring.
Seen below are his scoring statistics through each month:
Month | PTS | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% |
Dec. | 33.0 | 12.3 | 20.5 | .598 | 0.0 | 0.3 | .000 |
Jan. | 28.2 | 10.1 | 18.8 | .538 | 0.8 | 1.9 | .419 |
Feb. | 24.6 | 8.8 | 16.4 | .540 | 1.0 | 2.4 | .419 |
March | 24.8 | 9.8 | 19.2 | .511 | 0.8 | 2.8 | .273 |
April | 29.5 | 10.6 | 20.5 | .519 | 1.2 | 3.2 | .381 |
As evidenced, James moved away from playing in the post back to his usual isolation performances. With Bosh out because of injury, he has been forced to undertake this role. Games 2 and 3 against Indiana were both indications that two isolation scorers on the perimeter will not beat them.
For Game 4, James started at power forward and ended the game with a statistical performance not seen in 51 years with 40 points, 18 rebounds and 9 assists. He accepted the same role in Game 1 when Bosh was initially injured—also a Miami win—with 32 points, 15 rebounds and five assists.
Expect James to continue to play at this position until Bosh returns, as his strength and physicality in the paint are too much for opponents.
The Heat's Offense
2 of 6During the regular season, the Miami Heat were one of the best offensive teams in the league. They ranked seventh in points per game, fourth in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage.
With James’ move to power forward, the Heat have the chance to start Shane Battier, Mike Miller or James Jones—all specialists from beyond the arc. With the combination of Wade and James slashing and creating, it leaves their shooters open beyond the arc.
In addition, the mid-range shooting of Udonis Haslem is filling in for Bosh. He has struggled thus far against Indiana but had a breakout game last night with 14 points on 5-of-6 shooting. Seemingly Haslem didn’t play well as the starter, but with James now in at the four, he has resumed his role as Miami’s sixth man.
All the Heat needed was a low-post threat, and they now have that in LeBron James. His ability to post up and kick the ball to open shooters or a cutting Wade will make this offense dominant. No doubt the loss of Bosh was a blow to their confidence in itself, but they now have a new dynamic system that features a balanced attack from inside, outside and drives to the rim.
Additionally, the Heat can now play Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf regularly. Neither have outstanding moves down low, but their hustle and offensive rebounding are also a change that improves their attack.
The Heat's Defense
3 of 6It’s no secret Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The blend of James and Wade on the perimeter makes it difficult for opposing teams to score, especially in man-to-man sets. During the season, the Heat ranked fourth in opponent points per game, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage, yet just 26th in three-point percentage. For the playoffs, however, they sit tied for second in opponent points per game, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage.
As the famed phrase suggests, "Offense wins games, defense wins championships."
This could not be more accurate in Miami’s case. Its offense has taken a hit with Bosh gone, but the team's mixture of versatile defenders counteracts this. Wade, James and Battier are celebrated for their defensive efforts, especially Battier. His abilities on this side of the court might be a little passive, due to his age, but Battier remains one of the smartest defenders in the league.
Combine that with Anthony, Turiaf and Haslem, and the Miami Heat have a respectable group of defenders. Additionally, their guard play is well trained in disrupting passing lanes and causing turnovers. If holding New York and Indiana to .417 and .409 percent shooting respectively is any indication of what Miami can do, its defensive play is ultimately the backline for its run to the Finals.
The Heat's Role Players
4 of 6Miami’s biggest criticism is that it is not a true team and that the offense revolves around its stars.
This is not the case, as the Heat have a good set of complementary players. Their minutes, production and roles have all been altered because of the Big Three, but their abilities as players have not.
In reality, they arguably have the best bench of the remaining teams in the Eastern Conference. When you break them down, the group Pat Riley has built to support James, Wade and Bosh is quite accomplished.
Mike Miller has been one of the most accurate three-point shooters in the NBA for some time. He is one of only 35 players to shoot above .400 for his career, joining an elusive club that contains the likes of Ray Allen, Glen Rice, Drazan Petrovic, Steve Nash, Mark Price, the list goes on.
Battier is considered one of the most intelligent defenders in the NBA, routinely watching film and studying his opponent to find weaknesses to exploit.
Haslem, one of the more prolific rebounders in Miami Heat history, is the heart and soul of the team, displaying hustle and physicality every game. He was heavily chased in last year’s free agency period, yet chose less money to stay with the Heat.
In addition, the Heat have Turiaf and Anthony, both nightmares to contain on the offensive glass, as well as menaces defensively.
Mario Chalmers proved to be a legitimate threat from beyond the arc this season, shooting .388 for the season.
James and Wade can’t always be spectacular, but this group is ready to step up and do what is needed to achieve a common goal: Win the NBA championship.
Miami Will Outplay Boston
5 of 6As Boston took a 3-2 series lead over Philadelphia, it seems a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals are in place. As some of you may remember, Miami took the series 4-1.
The Celtics are an outstanding defensive team in their own right, yet the Heat’s star power was too much. Boston won the season series over Miami, just like last year, but was demolished in the playoffs. Granted, point guard Rajon Rondo played with a dislocated elbow that hindered his ability to create opportunities for the team. This year he averaged 18.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists when playing the Heat. Containing him will be their first priority, which may look difficult but is seemingly much easier this year.
Signing Shane Battier was considered questionable by many, as the Heat already had an overabundance of wingmen. However, the move made much more sense come playoff time. Assigning Dwyane Wade to guard Rondo, Battier to cover Ray Allen and LeBron James to cover Paul Pierce creates an advantage in Miami’s favor. All three matchups could be routinely rotated depending on the situation, yet the Heat will benefit all the same.
Containing Kevin Garnett will also be an issue, but expect to see a rotation of Joel Anthony, Ronny Turiaf, Udonis Haslem and even James covering him. Conversely, much of Garnett’s offense comes from Rondo’s playmaking so from action comes a reaction. Shutting down his ability to create offensively will limit how well Boston can score.
On the offensive end, Boston can equally match up with Miami. The development of guard Avery Bradley showed he is a versatile defender and routinely gave Wade trouble during the regular season matchups, as he averaged just 19.7 points on .434 shooting. In a tasteless analysis, Bradley sat out against the 76ers with an injured shoulder, with his return uncertain. This leaves Boston with a question mark on whom to assign to defend Wade. He averaged 30.2 points on .526 shooting in last year’s playoffs, and expect similar production in the Conference Finals.
James was able to average 28 points on .472 shooting, but with his newly developed post moves and improved jumper, await a better performance from him. According to this analysis at The Inquisitr, Bosh should be ready to return in the Eastern Conference finals. Having him in the lineup will be a huge boost, both offensively and morally. His mid-range shooting and rebounding make this team click and will certainly help Miami return to the NBA Finals.
Conclusion
6 of 6Taking into consideration Miami has two of the top five players in the NBA on one team, it is certainly difficult to beat.
Many have already noted that LeBron James took a lesser team to the NBA Finals in reference to the Cleveland Cavaliers team that was swept by the San Antonio Spurs in 2007. At that time the Cavs' best players, aside from James, were Drew Gooden, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao and Larry Hughes.
A supporting cast of Dwyane Wade, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers is a much improved one. Keeping in mind another All-Star is on the mend and will return next round, the Heat certainly look like favorites to win the Eastern Conference title and advance to the NBA Finals once more.
Their combination of offense and defense will stifle opponents, who will not be able to keep up in a seven-game series. Expect Miami to play to its strengths and progress to the final and foremost round of the playoffs.
