New York Yankees: Why the Yankees Will Play in October

They are the worst in the league at driving home runners in scoring position.  Their pitching staff ranks 28th in quality starts, and their starters have surrendered the second-most home runs in all of baseball.

Yet the New York Yankees will make the playoffs.

This article will take a look at why, with three quarters of the season still remaining, the Bronx Bombers will turn things around and continue the tradition of playing in the postseason.

The Starting Rotation

Much has been made of the struggles of the New York Yankees' starting five.  From the season-ending injury to Michael Pineda, to the horrendous performance of Freddy Garcia, to the wildly inconsistent starts of Hiroki Kuroda, the Bombers' rotation has been under constant scrutiny.

Heading into this week, the Yankee starters had just eight games in which they did not yield a home run.  The first-place Baltimore Orioles' starters, by contrast, have had 19 games where they did not surrender a home run.

Why will the starting rotation turn around?

In his second start, 39-year-old Andy Pettitte showed Yankees fans exactly why there is hope for the "front five."

By going eight strong innings in which he allowed just four hits and struck out nine, Pettitte gave the bullpen a much-needed rest and provided some leadership-by-example to the maligned starting staff. 

In fact, it appeared that Pettitte's start carried over to Ivan Nova the very next day, as the young pitcher struck out 12 in just six innings. Until the aforementioned home run problem forced him from the mound, it seemed that Nova was in complete control.  It resulted in a loss, but gave us a glimpse of hope.

With C.C. Sabathia at the front of the rotation and Andy Pettitte at the rear of it, the Yankees have back-to-back "aces" throwing for them every week.  The stability that will provide, along with the luxury of knowing they should never experience a losing streak longer than three games, ensures a turnaround on the mound for the Bombers.

In addition to the depth the return of Pettitte adds, the once-promising Phil Hughes has given the Yankees better performances in each of his last three starts.  Over that time he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his starts and has lowered his ERA from 7.48 to 5.23. 

Even more telling is the fact that in those three games, he has taken an aggressive approach on the mound and has used his 93-to-95 MPH fastball to get batters out. He has complemented that pitch with a sharp breaking ball and has displayed poise when faced with runners on base.

It appears that after experiencing a first month to the season that saw his role in question, Phil Hughes has turned a corner and cemented a spot in the rotation.

All things considered, the Yankees' starting pitching still has some things to work on.  The high home run-rate and frequent control issues will need to be addressed, but both are "fixable."

If they can make some minor corrections, there is no reason that the New York rotation cannot meet the expectations set for them at the start of the year.

The Offense

Runners in scoring position.  Watching the New York Yankees bat, you'd think those words were some sort of evil incantation that the team desperately tries to avoid.

The list of Yankees who are struggling with runners on base is long:

     Curtis Granderson—.219 RISP average

     Robinson Cano—.176 RISP average

     Alex Rodriguez—.158 RISP average

     Mark Teixeira—.205 RISP average

     Nick Swisher—.222 RISP average

     Russell Martin—.167 RISP average

Only platooning designated hitter Raul Ibanez, at .294, is close to hitting .300 with runners in scoring position.  The degree to which the team is laboring with runners aboard is staggering.

So, where is the hope for the offense?

Given the history of each of the players listed above, one can expect an increase in their production at the plate.  Even though their hitting has been abysmal, the team still sits above .500 (21-20) and remains in striking distance within their division (five-and-a-half games back). 

Just a slight increase by each hitter's RISP average can result in more wins for the team.  Seven of the team's 20 losses have been by two runs or less.  Those are seven potential wins with improved hitting while runners are on base. 

What can the Yankees do until their hitters wake up?

Manager Joe Girardi needs to recognize the "cold" and "hot" hitters in the hand he has been dealt and organize the lineup accordingly.  A temporary move of Derek Jeter (.287 RISP average) to either the third or cleanup spot in the order may provide much-needed help in an RBI position.  Getting Ibanez more starts will also deepen the threat in the lineup.

Temporary changes like those may help to stabilize the production from the lineup until the other key players step up their performance at the plate.

Finally, on the offensive side, there is one piece that remains missing.  Brett Gardner was hitting over .300 and was well on his way to the best season of his career when he went on the disabled list with an elbow injury.  His presence in the lineup gives the team a speed demon who provides a constant distraction to opposing pitchers when on base, and his value to the team in left field is immeasurable.

Upon his return, the lineup immediately becomes deeper, and his ability to get into scoring position can only help the Bombers' productivity at the plate.

The Bullpen

On May 3, 2012, the New York Yankee empire was shaken to it's very foundation as the great Mariano Rivera was lost for the season with a torn ACL and meniscus. 

The future entrant to Cooperstown was the one constant in the Bombers' bullpen for the past 17 seasons, and many consider him to be the team's most valuable player over that time.

With the loss of Rivera, the New York relief corps was forced to re-define their roles.  Initially David Robertson was selected for the closer role, but that lasted all of two ninth-inning appearances (one of which was a disaster) before he went on the D.L. with a strained oblique. 

The injury to "D-Rob" left Rafael Soriano to move into the spot in the bullpen that he was initially slated for upon Mariano Rivera's retirement.  For Soriano, the 2011 season was injury-riddled and an utter disaster as he threw for a 4.12 ERA in only 42 appearances.  The result was that he was no longer a future lock for the ninth-inning spot in the bullpen.

So far, the former Tampa Bay Ray closer has made the most of his opportunity in 2012.

He currently is 2-for-2 in save situations for the Yankees and appears most comfortable in that role. With that being the case, when Robertson does return, it makes the most sense to keep him as the eighth-inning setup man—a spot where he has flourished. 

To date, the Yankees bullpen has been the strength of the team and quite possibly the reason their record remains over .500 in spite of the rest of the team's troubles.

If the club can get some people healthy again (Robertson and Gardner are the first that come to mind) and make some adjustments to the lineup, it certainly can make a run for the postseason. 

No one in the A.L. East is running away from the pack, so with a little help, it remains theirs for the taking.