How Wasted Season Will Doom Dirk Nowitzki and Dallas Mavericks

It's not every year that the NBA's reigning champions get swept. In fact, it hasn't happened since 2007 when the Miami Heat were swept by the Chicago Bulls a year after beating the Dallas Mavericks in the finals.

Those same Mavericks followed in the Heat's footsteps this year in a disappointing first-round exit that was all-too predictable.

Dallas' pride will certainly take a hit, but this team's long-term championship prospects could have taken even more damage. To be sure, those prospects would be at risk regardless of what happened to the Mavericks in these playoffs.

For all intents and purposes, Mark Cuban assembled a rental team this year—a decision that could come back to bite him sooner, rather than later.

The logic behind his cautious spending is unassailable at first glance.

Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler and J.J. Barea were key pieces to the Mavericks' 2011 championship run, but they were due long-term deals that would have inevitably constrained Cuban's ability to throw money at Deron Williams in the coming offseason.

Of course, Dwight Howard would have been on the market too, had he not opted-in for his final year with the Orlando Magic.

As attractive as those kind of acquisitions might be, there's never been any guarantee the Mavericks would come away with either of those superstar building pieces (much less both of them). The odds look even worse at the moment, with Dallas having no better than a coin-flip's chance of landing Williams.

Even if Williams weren't being courted by the Brooklyn Nets and their ambitious long-term plans, you have to wonder what he'd see in Dallas outside of the chance to come home.

The Mavericks only have Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dominique Jones and Brendan Haywood under contract next season, and Haywood is an awfully tempting candidate for Dallas' amnesty clause.

Dallas has relatively affordable team options to bring Vince Carter and Brandan Wright back, but it's hard to imagine more important guys like Jason Kidd and Jason Terry returning.

Kidd might be willing to back up someone like Deron Williams, but that doesn't mean he'll see eye to eye with the Mavericks when it comes to estimating his market value. Holding on to Terry will similarly depend on whether Dallas can afford him amidst its other summer plans.

After such a disappointing first round, a change of personnel might be at the top of most fans' wish lists.

The most utopian scenario would obviously involve Deron Williams running the point and recruiting an influx of talent to surround him (and Dirk, of course).

If Williams doesn't sign, the other dominoes may not fall, though.

At 33 years old, Nowitzki alone isn't enough of a draw for free agents, and there aren't actually that many attractive options on the market anyway (save a few restricted free agents who'd be hard to sign).

The NBA's new collective bargaining agreement had a lot to do with Cuban's risky decision to make changes this offseason, but this franchise won't have any excuses if those best-laid plans don't pay dividends.

It's not easy to replace champions.