NBA Playoffs 2012: Adjusted Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for Every Playoff Team
The NBA postseason has started, and what a glorious time it is.
It was only in November when we thought we wouldn't see this time for another summer. The lockout gave us nightmares of there being no postseason at all, but we were lucky enough that the players and owners reached an agreement that gave us a condensed 66-game season.
The product was awful, but we had basketball and that's all that really mattered.
Now we reach the playoffs and the entire outlook of the season changes. The teams that can't keep up with making adjustments are lost forever, while the teams with the most will, ambition and drive make it on to the next round. In the end, we reach the NBA Finals where two teams clash and decide who is truly the best team in basketball's top league.
Today we speak of the current playoff teams and their best and worst-case scenarios. In best scenarios, we contemplate on whether an injured player could potentially come back, whether an upset is possible or if they managed to find other resources that could result in a potential deep postseason run.
The worst-case scenarios? Basically run of the mill scenarios that occur as a result of an injured player or supporting cast not being able to step up.
Let's delve into the best and worst-case scenarios that each playoff team could possibly experience over the next month, shall we?
Chicago Bulls
1 of 16Best Case: C.J. Watson and John Lucas III step up
Reigning MVP Derrick Rose spent the majority of the 2011-'12 campaign either in pain on the bench or in pain on the court. Back spasms and knee trouble were the main causes of the ailments and it forced Rose to play in only 39 of the 66 regular-season games.
Yet the Bulls still finished with the top record in the Eastern Conference by four games. I hate to dispute the MVP trophy that Rose currently has on his mantlepiece, but aren't teams supposed to get significantly worse when they lose an MVP?
The Bulls have managed to stay afloat thanks in part to backup point guards C.J. Watson and John Lucas III. You probably haven't heard much about either player prior to this season, but they are probably the two most important names in Chicago at the moment. These two were a key reason as to why the Bulls still became the No. 1 seed despite playing without Rose for nearly half of the regular season.
Watson averaged 10 points and four assists while converting on 39 percent of his three-pointers. Lucas chipped in eight points and two assists per while hitting on 39 percent of his three-pointers as well. As good as he's been, I don't think he'll ever escape from the torment this probably caused.
With Rose now ruled out for the rest of the postseason due to a torn ACL he suffered near the end of Game 1, it's going to be up to Watson and Lucas to fill in and support the Bulls once again.
Worst Case: The Derrick Rose injury is more crippling than we thought
Derrick Rose suffered possibly the worst injury that could happen to a player with his style of play.
The ACL acts as a form of balance and stability in his knee. That's key to have for any NBA player, except DeJuan Blair, and it's essential for Rose, who uses his knees for agile movements and getting over the top of larger defenders in the frontcourt.
Rose will have an entire summer, and possibly even the beginning of the regular season, to recover. The Bulls will need him to become the player he was when he won the MVP, because they will not be able to achieve that dream of winning a championship without him.
San Antonio Spurs
2 of 16Best Case: Balance keeps them alive all the way to the Finals
Can the History Channel run some sort of special on the 2011-'12 San Antonio Spurs?
They're not supposed to be a No. 1 seed. How is that even possible when your star point guard is going through a divorce, the star shooting guard is constantly dealing with injuries and the future Hall of Fame power forward has no knees? These are the three best players on the team, yet they managed to tie for the league's best record at 50-16.
They were able to accomplish this feat thanks to a strict balance between every single player on the team. You have Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan picking up most of the slack, but this team wouldn't be anywhere without the shooting of guys like Gary Neal, Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard or the toughness under the rim in players like DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter.
Most of all, the Spurs wouldn't be here without the recently anointed Coach of the Year in Gregg Popovich. The longtime Spurs coach has perfected this balance which allowed him to manage the playing time of Duncan and Ginobili throughout the regular season. Now in the postseason, those two are fresh enough to play legitimate minutes.
Hell, Popovich may be able to rest his starters in the postseason after that huge Game 2 win over Utah.
Worst Case: They're forced to become more dependent on Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili
The only way the Spurs get to the championship is relying halfway on their big three and halfway on their role players.
Duncan, Parker and Ginobili could lead a team on their own backs in the early-2000s, but it's not happening now. Therefore, the Spurs are going to constantly need their role players to step up and that may not be the greatest solution to carrying this team.
Shooters tend to get streaky. If Green, Neal, Leonard and Matt Bonner all begin to have trouble shooting, you're going to have to become more reliant on your injury-plagued shooting guard and your weathered power forward.
Duncan and Ginobili are surefire Hall of Famers, but they're not going to be able to lead this Spurs team to the finals on their own.
Miami Heat
3 of 16Best Case: LeBron James continues his MVP campaign throughout the playoffs
The criticism of LeBron James should seriously begin to wane. It seems that during every game he gives a new reason as to why you should either love him or hate him more. You can love or hate the guy's personality all you want, but don't take away from the fact that this guy is the best player in basketball.
James has simply been on another level of greatness this year. He might have won 60-plus games in consecutive seasons with the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he wasn't even as close to as good as he was throughout the 2011-'12 campaign. We witnessed a player who not only made the adjustments to thrive with his team, but the sacrifice to make his team better.
In every game, you will see James defensively taking on the opponent's best player as a means to limit him. He gets the job done every single time. When he's not actually guarding all five positions (he defended Dwight Howard, look it up), he's usually exhausting a lot of effort attempting to keep the quick point guard or the athletic small forward that he's playing against at bay.
James has had an MVP season and he's continued it in two postseason games with an unbelievable effort on both sides in Game 1 and a solid all-around effort in Game 2. His matchup with Carmelo Anthony has been a struggle thus far to consistently make jump shots or get to the rim.
As long as James is continuing this play, the Heat will become the NBA champions and there shouldn't be anyone to impede that progress.
Worst Case: The lack of a true center becomes exposed
The Heat may have the future MVP, but they're still lacking heavily when it comes to finding a true center to rely on.
Dexter Pittman and Eddy Curry were both failed experiments and we probably won't see them at all this postseason. In response, the Heat have gone with a starting lineup that's now composed of Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem. Surprisingly, this has actually allowed Bosh to become a better rebounder.
However, it's tough to believe that Bosh and Haslem can hold their own against a frontcourt like the Bulls, Lakers or Thunder. Those teams have numerous players who are excellent defenders and rebounders down low and the Heat are either going to have to insert Pittman or Curry or hope for the best with Haslem, Bosh and Joel Anthony.
Oklahoma City Thunder
4 of 16Best Case: Serge Ibaka becomes the legitimate fourth scoring threat
I'm not sure if this is a good thing or not—the Oklahoma City Thunder only had three players lead their team in scoring over the regular season.
It's easy to guess who those three players are. In case you don't know, however, it's Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Those three are the Thunder's offense. Don't look at guys like Thabo Sefalosha or Kendrick Perkins and don't even think to look at Nick Collison or Daequan Cook off the bench.
Durant, Westbrook and Harden are the Thunder's offense and if one of them struggles, the game becomes a lot more difficult.
That's why it becomes essential that they get a fourth player to come in and score 10 points per night. It's not too tall of an order, but it may be when you look at the roster. They have several great defenders and a few shooters, yet are lacking that consistent fourth scorer.
If they want to be on a search for this fourth scorer, they'll need to give Serge Ibaka a more significant role on the offensive end. So far, they have done so with Ibaka averaging 12 points per in the first two games of the series. If they can continue to give him shots under the basket or the mid-range jumper he's been developing, then the Thunder become a whole lot more difficult to outscore.
Worst Case: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have another power struggle
This was the cause of the Thunder's downward spiral in last year's Conference Finals.
The Thunder could have very easily been the team that faced the Miami Heat last year, yet succumbed in five games to the eventual NBA champion Dallas Mavericks despite holding a fourth-quarter lead in every game.
What had happened was Russell Westbrook attempted to usurp the crown as the team's leading scorer. Don't put all the blame on Westbrook, either, because Durant could have told Russell that this was his team and that he should be taking the shots that matter.
Instead, Durant stood back and let it happen. He watched as Russell took horrid jump shot after horrid jump shot, which eventually led to the Thunder's disheartening loss. As a result, there were rumors of the two having a possible rift. The idea that Westbrook wanted to become a first option was also brought up.
There's no way this can happen again. The road out of the West is extremely difficult with the Thunder likely to take on the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round and possibly the San Antonio Spurs in the Conference Finals. Even after that, they'll still most likely take on a Miami Heat team that will be extremely motivated.
Now is not the time for any power struggles to take place.
Indiana Pacers
5 of 16Best Case: Roy Hibbert begins to assert his dominance as a 7'2" center
The Indiana Pacers have one of the most complete starting lineups in the league, yet are failing to significantly utilize their greatest asset and advantage.
Give credit where credit is due to coach Frank Vogel. He was an interim head coach last year and earned his job to become the permanent head coach after a strong end to last season that resulted in a No. 8 seed. Now equipped with a quality roster, Vogel has made the Pacers relevant once again and now has them as a No. 3 seed.
Not much is being spoken about the Pacers, but they are a dangerous team when clicking on all cylinders. Darren Collison is an excellent facilitator, Paul George is a superb athlete and defender, Danny Granger is a lethal shooter and David West is as consistent as consistent gets when it comes to mid-range shooting.
Roy Hibbert, however, is the most important player on this team and the Pacers need to do whatever they can to constantly run the ball through him. The product out of Georgetown is 7'2" and contains an exuberant advantage over every single center he'll end up facing. Not only does he have the size, but he has an offensive game that's equipped with solid post work and a decent mid-range game.
Yet we are two games into the postseason and Hibbert is only averaging 10 points per on nine shots. I recognize that this is a team with several good players—I didn't even include George Hill—but they have an All-Star center who can give the Pacers a significant advantage every game.
As the postseason progresses, Hibbert should find himself gaining a larger role in the offense. Jump shots don't always fall and that's where you want your low-post players to step up and win games on their shoulders.
Worst Case: Danny Granger isn't the leader the Pacers hope him to be
As good as the Pacers have been this year, Danny Granger has actually been in a down year.
He still managed to convert on two three-pointers per at a 38 percent clip, but the 19 points per is his lowest since his second year and the 42 percent shooting from the field is a career low.
Granger has always been one of the league's most feared shooters and it's what has prohibited us from complaining about him not being aggressive enough of a player. However, with his shooting not as hot as it previously was, it's definitely going to raise some questions on whether or not Granger should be playing with more aggression.
Think about it, this guy is most likely going to be taking on LeBron James in the next round. You need to be at the top of your game on both sides of the ball to even come close to matching his output. The Pacers are going to need Granger to become the leader they're paying him to become, or else they're due for a quick second-round exit.
Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 16Best Case: The ball is constantly run through Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum
Watching Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum work together in the post is like poetry in motion.
If you ever want to see basketball made easy, just watch any Laker game where those two are playing. They recognize their height and length advantages and are constantly frustrating their opponents with those aspects. When Gasol is palming the ball, holding it over his head and lobbing it up to Bynum for a dunk from only a few feet away, you reach a point where you can only think "what else can I do?"
There's nothing you can do. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies are possibly the only teams that could provide some sort of competition to those two players. Even then it's a stretch because you can't rely on Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka for points, and Zach Randolph may not be able to hold his own against the significantly taller and longer Gasol.
As long as the Lakers have those two on the court, they have a definitive advantage. Oh, and let's not forget that they have Kobe Bryant waiting on the wing for his shot. So if you end up double-teaming, you leave Kobe Bryant wide open. Leave Bynum or Gasol to play one-on-one and you're essentially giving up nearly guaranteed points from a high percentage area.
Even with a bench that is seriously lacking, the Lakers make up for it with the size of Bynum and Gasol alone.
Worst Case: Kobe Bryant attempts to do too much and tires himself out in the process
The only player capable of denying the ball to Gasol and Bynum is their own teammate.
Kobe Bryant has this tendency where he likes to take over. We can't really complain about it since it's helped the Lakers to five championships, but it's also been a downfall of a few of their title runs. Bryant will tend to forget that he has teammates on the court and end up attempting to take the game over on his own accord.
It happened during the Chris Mihm-era and it still happens to this day. Even with Gasol and Bynum by his side, Bryant still led the league in shot attempts per at over 23. Give all the respect you want to a 33-year-old with a bad wrist to nearly lead the league in scoring. However, just remember that it's teams that win titles and not individuals.
Bryant knows how to win, so we trust him to make the right decisions. However, he's already averaging 27 shots per in two games against a Denver Nuggets team that has no answer for Gasol or Bynum. This postseason is going to be strenuous and the Lakers will need Bryant later on. Seeing him take 27 shots per game in the first round could result in a tired Kobe by the Conference Finals.
Atlanta Hawks
7 of 16Best Case: Al Horford returns and makes an impact
Somehow, the Atlanta Hawks found themselves in a similar position they are accustomed to: in the middle of the Eastern Conference.
However, this time around they did it severely shorthanded. Sixth man Jamal Crawford left in the offseason and Al Horford was lost early on in the season due to a torn pectoral muscle. The injury has kept him out for months and Horford eventually ruled himself out a week prior to the start of the Hawks first-round series against the Boston Celtics.
Even without Crawford and Horford, the Hawks found themselves with the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
Without Horford, however, they're not going anywhere past the second round. Ivan Johnson, Zaza Pachulia and Vladimir Radmanovic have filled in nicely, but that's not the trio you want to depend on for low-post help. Not to mention, none of these guys have the consistent mid-range jumper that Horford seemingly perfected.
The Hawks were lucky enough to take on a Celtics team that basically only had Kevin Garnett and Greg Stiemsma as its top contributors in the paint. They won't be that lucky later on if they do make it past the stingy Celtics defense.
Even if he does return, it'll take a while just for Horford to get his legs back. With him, however, they're still a much better team when not relying on Johnson, Pachulia or Jason Collins to grab rebounds and play defense.
Worst Case: Joe Johnson and Josh Smith can't lead a consistent offense
The Atlanta Hawks are a strange team to watch.
At times, they can be one of the most prolific and entertaining teams to watch. When Joe Johnson is hitting 30-foot three-pointers and Josh Smith is catching alley-oops, the Hawks can become a solid, consistent offensive threat. When Horford's on the floor, they only add to the dynamic by throwing in a mid-range shooter, but they'll have to play without him for the time being.
At other times, the Hawks can have an incredibly stagnant offense. If Johnson isn't hitting his shots, he won't take the initiative to drive. If Smith is either feeling lazy or being denied on drives, he'll end up taking mid-range shots which clearly isn't in his repertoire. It's improved, but not enough to be taken seriously.
The Hawks are a good team, but they only go as far as Johnson and Smith will take them in these playoffs. Johnson and Smith are the top offensive threats and the Hawks will need those two to keep the offense flowing and in a good rhythm.
Memphis Grizzlies
8 of 16Best Case: The Grizzlies get help out of their backcourt
The Memphis Grizzlies frontcourt is absolutely prolific.
When Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are able to constantly gain position down low, you notice why the Grizzlies are actually being considered as a championship contender. Gasol's size and Randolph's rebounding prowess give the Grizzlies an advantage over nearly every other team they face. Those two are the reasons why the Grizzlies nearly ended up in the Conference Finals last year.
Randolph, Gasol and Rudy Gay's offensive and athletic abilities allow the Grizzlies to have a devastating frontcourt that can beat you with their rebounding alone.
They can't do it on their own, however. The Grizzlies need the members of the backcourt to give them the extra boost they need to work their way past the Los Angeles Clippers for a second chance to make it past the Conference Finals. As good as Randolph, Gasol and Gay can be, the Grizzlies still need consistent help from the likes of Mike Conley, Jr. and O.J. Mayo
Both players have done well thus far with each averaging near three-pointers per game. As long as Mayo and Conley are continuing to stretch the floor with their perimeter shooting, it completely opens up the floor for even more scoring opportunities for Gasol and Randolph under the basket.
Worst Case: It's all on the shoulders of the frontcourt
Randolph and Gasol seemingly did everything in Memphis's postseason run last year.
It got them past the San Antonio Spurs in the first round, but they hit a wall in Game 7 against the Oklahoma City Thunder because the dynamic duo down low couldn't do it all. They couldn't grab every rebound and they certainly couldn't stretch the floor.
In order for the Grizzlies to proceed to the postseason and achieve those dreams of contending for a title, they're going to need help from Mayo, Conley and possibly even Gilbert Arenas. Those are the three players who can add a significant perimeter threat to a team that is already extremely dominant under the rim.
Boston Celtics
9 of 16Best Case: Rajon Rondo returns without causing another hitch the rest of the way
Rajon Rondo is getting a little out of hand.
That incident with the referee in Game 1 against Atlanta? It wasn't even his first altercation this year with a referee. He actually threw a basketball at a referee after another call that was disagreeable. Rondo has a temper, especially with the referees, and the Celtics can't afford to have one of their top players getting frustrated so easily.
The call that Rondo was arguing over in Game 1? A jump ball. It wasn't in dispute of a flagrant foul or a shooting foul. It was over a jump ball that could have gone either way. If your All-Star point guard and the main facilitator of the offense is getting himself thrown out of games in the postseason over calls like a jump ball, you might run into problems down the road.
In fact, Rondo's immaturity and short temper might have contributed to the Celtics loss to the Miami Heat in last year's semifinals.
With his Celtics down 2-0, Rondo apparently got so mad that his assistant coach criticized during a film session that he ended up throwing a water bottle through a video screen. He later apologized, but it's still a huge blow to your character. You're supposed to be a locker room leader in a time of turmoil, you can't be losing your head and causing a rift between your teammates.
The Celtics need to take these playoffs with a business-like attitude. They can't afford to lose Rondo when they're already playing shorthanded with Ray Allen on the bench.
Worst Case: Ray Allen fails to have a significant impact upon his eventual return
You may not have heard, but Ray Allen hasn't played in a game since April 15th.
In fact, Allen has been dealing with injury problems for a large part of the year. It's extremely disappointing that he's dealing with these injuries when you realize that Allen is shooting a career-best 45 percent from beyond the arc.
The Celtics need him to make another significant run to the title. Avery Bradley has been great, Paul Pierce is having an excellent year and Kevin Garnett has made a stupendous transition to center, but they're not going anywhere without the lethal shooting of Allen.
He's a prolific three-point shooter and tires his assignment out with his style of play, which involves him running in and out of screens. If the Celtics end up playing the Miami Heat, you want Allen to force Dwyane Wade to chase him around the entire game so that he'll get tired on the offensive end.
The Celtics are an old team and they're going to need as much support as they can get to make another title run.
Los Angeles Clippers
10 of 16Best Case: Blake Griffin can develop an offensive game that isn't insanely awkward
Blake Griffin has scored 39 points in the first two games of the postseason and I'm not sure how it happened.
Griffin can get to the rim for easy layups and dunks matched up against the slower Randolph, but he is also being forced into these awkward hook shots that come off an out of control spin move. Blake is constantly attempting to integrate himself into the offense, yet can't seem to get a solid grasp of getting to the rim and taking a high-percentage shot.
Without Chauncey Billups, and now without Caron Butler, the Clippers are going to be relying on Griffin more than ever. They've been fortunate enough to have surprise contributions from Reggie Evans, Kenyon Martin and Nick Young to step up, but they're going to need significant contributions from Griffin if they want to advance much further.
Griffin is the only low-post scorer on this team. DeAndre Jordan scores near the rim but needs help getting to that point. Blake needs to establish himself as a consistent low-post threat that must always be checked. Without him, the Clippers become a one-dimensional team that becomes too reliant on its shooters.
Blake's lack of an offensive game outside of the paint has been a detriment to the team. With the postseason now in full effect, it's time that Griffin becomes the multidimensional threat the Clippers hoped he would become.
Worst Case: Chris Paul is constantly forced to bail out his team
Without Billups and Butler, the Clippers suddenly find themselves scrambling for scorers.
They've been lucky enough to have Nick Young and his shot hitting on all cylinders. Griffin has also provided a solid contribution even though his post moves are looking extra horrendous this season. Outside of those two, however, the Clippers aren't giving Chris Paul much of a boost on the offensive end.
Paul left the New Orleans Hornets to avoid situations like the one he is now. He's left with a depleted team that bears striking similarities to the Hornets. He has David West without a jump shot and the equivalent of Tyson Chandler in DeAndre Jordan. Throw in Nick Young and there's your Peja Stojakovic.
Chris Paul doing it on his own took the Hornets to the second round and that was it. The Clippers will need to offer support for Paul in the form of players who can either create their own shots or constantly find ways to get open.
Orlando Magic
11 of 16Best Case: Glen Davis emerges as a future All-Star
There really isn't much to say about the Orlando Magic. In fact, it's unfair to consider the lineup they're currently throwing on the floor as a playoff team.
Without Dwight Howard, that starting lineup makes the Magic look like a lottery team. Jameer Nelson at the point, Jason Richardson at the 2, Hedo Turkoglu at the 3, Ryan Anderson at the 4 and Glen Davis at the 5. Isn't it mind-blowing how the absence of a single player can turn your team from a possible finals contender into a lottery team?
The Magic don't have much hope to winning this series against the Indiana Pacers unless they find an unexpected source of scoring. The team that was so reliant on its three-point shooting prowess is now finding it a lot more difficult to hit perimeter shots because there isn't an imposing force in the middle to constantly attract attention from multiple defenders.
Basically, the hope of this team lies on Glen Davis, the former Boston Celtics power forward. He's been listed as the Magic's starting center this postseason and miraculously helped to lead the team for an improbable Game 1 upset. In three games, he's averaging a healthy 19 points and nine rebounds per.
Davis is going to average Dwight Howard numbers and attract Dwight Howard double-teams if the Magic have any chance.
Worst Case: Dwight Howard is so disgusted that he immediately leaves
It's already become established that Howard has difficultly in deciding what he wants to do with the rest of his NBA career.
He said he wants to stay in Orlando, but then he'll go and demand a trade to New Jersey. In the final week leading up to the trade deadline, Howard changed his mind a number of times before ultimately moving his free agency period up to the 2013 offseason. He never made a decision, he just made us wait another year basically.
To keep Howard in Orlando, although I think it would be better if he left by this point, the Magic have to do whatever they can to convince him that they have a championship-caliber roster. It would be considerably difficult for the current Magic lineup to make it past the first round, but it wouldn't hurt to showcase the same effort we saw in Game 1.
After that Game 1 victory, the Magic lost Games 2 and 3 by a combined 38 points. Dwight's probably looking up apartments in Brooklyn as we speak.
Denver Nuggets
12 of 16Best Case: They find an answer to limiting Bynum and Gasol
The Denver Nuggets have a number of centers on their roster who can match up physically with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.
Talent wise? That's another issue. JaVale McGee, Timofey Mozgov and Kosta Koufos may be able to match up with those two physically, but they have done nothing to limit either of those players. Gasol's versatility, Bynum's strength and their ability to pass to one another deep into the post has made them nearly unstoppable against the Nuggets front line.
It hasn't even mattered that the Nuggets have three seven-footers on their roster, as well as an energetic athlete in Kenneth Faried. They've been no match for Gasol and Bynum, and it's tough to see them figuring out a way to limit either of those two players for the rest of this series.
I'm not an NBA coach and I have no sort of answer for this. George Karl, however, is a terrific NBA coach who has the potential to figure out how to limit two of the game's most feared big men.
Karl is going to have to figure out a way to limit those two, or else his team is going to get swept. Even if Game 2 was close, all the Lakers have to do is pound it inside to make sure that the Nuggets don't come close to actually winning.
Worst Case: The lack of having a player who can go off ends up hurting them
Having a balance between several players works out extremely well in the regular season. If you have a myriad of players who can score either from inside or out, you're going to come away with a lot of wins because you feature a lineup where there is no actual permanent source of scoring.
It's tough to work like that in the postseason because opponents have seven games to dial in. It also makes it a lot easier when there isn't one player you have to worry about. Take on Chicago and you worry about Derrick Rose, take on the Lakers and you have to worry about Kobe Bryant. The Nuggets don't have that.
Ty Lawson is a solid player, but he's not the player that's going to lead the Nuggets past teams like the Lakers, Thunder or Spurs to an NBA Finals berth. As much as they don't miss Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets do need a player similar to him that can take over a game and exhibit himself as the go-to player on the court.
Think about any NBA champion and you'll see at least one All-Star leading the way.
New York Knicks
13 of 16Best Case: Carmelo Anthony starts passing the ball
There are times when you watch Carmelo Anthony and have to question yourself on whether you're dreaming or not.
When Anthony is making shots, it's like watching a video game. He can get insanely hot from anywhere on the floor and can even take it inside with toughness and physicality that you wouldn't expect from Anthony. He can do it all on offense and that's why the New York Knicks are giving him $20 million to potentially go off for 30 points on any given night.
However, all of that scoring does more hurt than help at times. Carmelo does have bad games and we saw that in Game 1 when he dropped only 11 points on 15 shots in the Knicks 33-point loss. He bounced back in Game 2 to convert 30 points on 26 shots in a loss where his team only fell by 10 points.
At the beginning of the season, former Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni envisioned Carmelo Anthony as the facilitator. What he didn't realize was that Anthony facilitated on his own time and it mostly resulted in him taking the shot. Carmelo simply doesn't believe in passing the ball and that's why you see Amar'e Stoudemire struggling to get off 10 shots per.
If 'Melo could be more like LeBron James in terms of a small forward who can facilitate, he'd arguably be one of the best players in the NBA. Until then, however, he's going to constantly be criticized and ultimately contribute to the Knicks losing this series in four or five games.
Worst Case: Carmelo Anthony keeps shooting the ball
In the final regular-season meeting between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks, the Knicks were left to rely on Anthony for the entire game due to the absence of Stoudemire and Jeremy Lin.
Carmelo went off for 42 points. The entire team scored 85 as a whole in an eight-point loss. Anthony is in constant takeover mode and it's already shown in the first two games of the postseason. He took the most amount of shots in Game 1 and he took significantly more shots than anyone else in Game 2.
That's going to be the downfall of the Knicks. Anthony is too self-centered of a player to involve his teammates. He couldn't get Stoudemire into any sort of rhythm when they were both on the floor. Instead of seeing the team work together, all we saw was Anthony doing nothing but isolation plays and tiring himself out by the half.
In Game 2, Anthony scored 15 points in the first quarter. He had 15 the rest of the game. That tends to happen when you're attempting to do nothing but score against two of the league's top perimeter defenders in LeBron James and Shane Battier.
Dallas Mavericks
14 of 16Best Case: Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry bring back their jump shots from last year
When the Dallas Mavericks defeated the Miami Heat in last year's NBA Finals, they found a way to contain LeBron James.
However, they still needed a way to beat out the efforts of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Luckily for the Mavericks, they were able to find a way behind the hot shooting of Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. The two never seemed to miss a jump shot in any of the hotly contested fourth quarters. In fact, Nowitzki went an astounding 50-of-51 from the line.
The Mavericks were able to win that series because Nowitzki played the perfect role of offensive team leader and Terry was the role player who could always be relied on. As a result, the two, as well as a few others, made a great deal of the difficult shots and ended up winning in six games.
The road to the finals for Dallas is a lot tougher this year. They're not nearly as good as they were last season and they already see themselves in a 2-0 hole going back to Dallas. If they want to shock the Oklahoma City Thunder and make another legitimate title run, they're going to need Nowitzki and Terry to make all of those jumpers they made in last year's postseason run.
The two have performed admirably in two games with Nowitzki averaging 28 points on 49 percent shooting and Terry converting on three three-pointers per at an absurd 55 percent clip, but it still doesn't appear to be enough.
The reason should be obvious.
Worst Case: Not having Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea ends up being their downfall
When the Mavericks allowed Tyson Chandler to walk, they all but sent their hopes of winning a second consecutive title down the drain. That's why they've gone from a second seed to a seventh seed that actually had doubts of not even making the postseason. Without Chandler, the Mavericks don't have that defensive anchor they heavily relied on.
Look at what Tyson has done for the Knicks. That team went from one of the worst defensive squads to an above-average team on that end. That's the effect an excellent defender that stands at 7' and weighs in at 260 pounds can do for you.
Throw in the fact that the Mavericks allowed their biggest spark in J.J. Barea to walk as well and you have a team that's merely a shell of itself. Sure, guys like Nowitzki, Terry, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion will step up, but when you give up your best post defender and your spark off the bench and get nothing in return, you shouldn't be surprised when you're already down 2-0 in the first round.
Philadelphia 76ers
15 of 16Best Case: A consistent scoring effort from key players
A tale of two different games is what we witnessed in Games 1 and 2 between the Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers.
Don't think it was because of Derrick Rose, either. The offense may struggle at times, but there's no excuses for that defense to suddenly give up 109 points to a Philadelphia 76ers team that has a lot of trouble scoring.
What happened was the Sixers numerous role players stepped up. There's no clear No. 1 scorer on the team, so it requires each and every player on the team to create some sort of positive impact. That's exactly what happened in Game 2 with Jrue Holiday going off for 26 points, Louis Williams chipping in 20 off the bench and Evan Turner going for 19.
Compare that to Game 1 where Holiday only had 16, Williams had a disappointing nine points and Turner finished with 12. Not one player on the entire team had 20 points or more. It's obvious that the only way the Sixers pull off a stunning upset is if guys like Holiday, Williams and Turner continue to score at least 15 points per night.
You want to beat the NBA's top team for the past two years? You're going to need a lot more than Elton Brand leading your team in scoring.
Worst Case: Andre Iguodala continues to be a major letdown on offense
The Sixers can use all the scoring they can get. When you have players like Holiday, Williams and Turner do what they're expected to do, it's a beautiful thing because you have three high-energy players scoring at will.
However, you still need to find scoring in other places. Specifically, you want to find that scoring in the form of your small forward in Andre Iguodala. It's tough to believe that he once averaged 20 points and was the leading scorer for this Sixers team because it honestly appears as if he forgets how to score points on some nights.
Iguodala averaged only 12 points per in the regular season, his lowest since his second year in the league. The opening two games against the Bulls haven't been much better with an 11-point effort on 3-of-11 shooting in Game 1 and another 11-point effort on an improved 5-of-12 shooting in Game 2.
We respect Iguodala as arguably the league's top wing defender, but it's going to take far more than his defense for the Sixers to create any sort of noise in this year's postseason.
Utah Jazz
16 of 16Best Case: The backcourt contributes
In a league where having a frontcourt that can cause damage on offense is as rare as seeing Haley's Comet, the Utah Jazz have still found ways to struggle despite having two of the league's best offensive threats in the post.
Besides Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson is the top scoring center in the league. At 6'10", 289 pounds, Jefferson can find ways to score around the basket at will. He's got a feathery touch that allows him to gently place the ball in the rim whether he's posting up or taking a mid-range jumper and has the rebounding skills to back it up.
Paul Millsap has continued to be a surprise out of Louisiana Tech and recently averaged 17 points and nine boards in his third year with Utah.
Throw in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter and you have one of the NBA's top frontcourts. However, even with these tremendous advantages around the rim that the Jazz possess, they're still a No. 8 seed that probably won't get out of the first round unless one huge aspect of their game actually begins to do something.
We speak, of course, of the Jazz backcourt which has done little to nothing all year long. Guys like Devin Harris and C.J. Miles were tremendous disappointments throughout the regular season and they've continued that trend in two postseason games. Miles hasn't even played, while Harris is currently averaging six points on 31 percent shooting.
The top member of the Jazz backcourt? Jamaal Tinsley. Yes, it's that bad. If the Jazz want to escape out of the first round, or simply give the Spurs some sort of competition, then they're going to need guys like Harris, Alec Burks and Josh Howard to step up in a huge way.
Worst Case: The San Antonio Spurs really are a lot better and win the next three games by 30 apiece
Coming into this series, I actually thought the Jazz were going to give the Spurs a run for their money.
After all, look out how badly the Spurs struggled last year against the frontcourt of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Surely a frontcourt with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter could cause damage similar to those two, right?
It certainly doesn't seem that way when you lose your first two games by a combined 46 points.
The Spurs are an incredible team and the Jazz are a team that barely made its way in as a No. 8 seed. While it's a great story for Utah to make it without All-Star point guard Deron Williams, All-Star power forward Carlos Boozer and Hall of Fame coach Jerry Sloan, it's still going to be a sad story when this team loses in either four or five games.
Like I said, if they get some help from any source in the backcourt, then they might have a chance. Until then, however, a series win isn't happening.





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