2012 NBA Playoffs: Predictions for the First Round

Well, the 2012 NBA Playoffs are finally here. Actually, I shouldn't even be saying "finally," because that went fast. Oh, that's right—the lockout trimmed 16 games off of the season. That's why.

This year's postseason may very well be one of the more unpredictable ones in recent memory, with several teams harboring legitimate title hopes and others primed to make upset bids.

So without further ado, let's predict the first round of the playoffs and come up with some winning prescriptions for each team:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(8) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (1) Chicago Bulls

How the 76ers can win: Hope and pray that Derrick Rose, who missed 27 games this season due to a myriad of injuries, is not 100 percent, and I don't think I'd be going out on any sort of limb when I say that he isn't. Even so, Philadelphia is going to have a heck of a time trying to win this series, as the Bulls were still able to post an 18-9 record without Rose this year.

The key for the Sixers should be to try to limit Chicago's second-chance opportunities as much as possible, as the Bulls are a very good rebounding team. Also, someone is going to have to step up and take on the role as the primary scorer for Philadelphia, but considering that that did not happen at any point during the season, I don't think it's likely to happen now. 

How the Bulls can win: I would say "show up," but I realize that this requires a bit more thought than that. Plain and simple, Chicago needs to keep the 76ers out of transition, as that is when Doug Collins' group is at its best. The only way I can even imagine seeing Philly hang in this series would be to accumulate an extraordinary amount of fastbreak points, but that Bulls' defense is pretty good so I don't see that happening.

Final thoughts: The 76ers' 20-8 start is now a distant memory, as they plummeted to a 15-23 record the rest of the way and nearly missed the postseason entirely. Meanwhile, Chicago posted the best record in the league despite playing over 40 percent of the season without the reigning MVP. I think one should also take into consideration the ridiculous bulletin board material that Evan Turner gave the Bulls the other day by saying he and his teammates would rather have the No. 8 seed than the No. 7 because they favored playing the Bulls over the Miami Heat because Miami is "tougher." Nice one, Evan.

Prediction: Bulls in five. I'll give the 76ers one game at home. Other than that, Chicago takes this rather easily.

(7) New York Knicks vs. (2) Miami Heat

How the Knicks can win: Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire need to be able to go blow-for-blow with Miami's Big Three, and another scorer (J.R. Smith, perhaps?) needs to step his game up as well. Also, Tyson Chandler absolutely must control the paint much like he did with the Dallas Mavericks against the Heat during the finals last year.

In the most recent meeting between these two teams, Chandler's impact was hardly felt, as he mustered only nine points and five rebounds. He doesn't necessarily have to score, but he has to crash the boards and be a presence defensively, as Miami obviously lives off slashing into the lane and drawing fouls. Finally, the Knicks can beat the Heat by utilizing their significant advantage in depth. New York has an outstanding bench—Miami does not.

How the Heat can win: By getting huge performances from each member of the Big Three. Make no mistake—regardless of the fact that the Heat are seeded second and the Knicks are seventh, this is not going to be easy for Miami. New York has a ton of firepower offensively, being one of the few teams who can match the Heat in that area.

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh all need to show up for this series. By that, I mean that one of those three players can't just walk in and lay an egg while the other two go off. Miami just isn't deep enough to win a postseason series against a tough opponent that way.

If the Heat can get some production from the likes of role players such as Udonis Haslem, Shane Battier and Mike Miller it would go a long way, but they cannot count on that. They have to lean on James, Wade, and Bosh.

Final thoughts: This is probably the most hyped first-round playoff series in recent memory. We are far removed from the days when Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning would clash in the playoffs, but there is just something about Knicks/Heat that draws awe.

It is certainly going to be a great series, and I believe a long one as well. It's funny that Miami is considered by many to be the prohibitive favorites to win the title, but there is a chance that it won't even make it out of the first round. What would be the most intriguing scenario in this series? New York up 3-2 heading back to Madison Square Garden for a potential closeout game in Game 6. How will James handle the pressure of a raucous MSG crowd with his playoff life on the line?

Prediction: Heat in seven. I want to pick the Knicks, but I just can't. Maybe if Anthony and Stoudemire had played with each other all season long this would be different, but they didn't.

(6) Orlando Magic vs. (3) Indiana Pacers

How the Magic can win: Hope Dwight Howard recovers from back surgery tomorrow and suddenly "forgives" the Orlando front office for "wronging" him. That's really it. I don't see any way that the Magic win this series. Their most reliable players are Jameer Nelson, Ryan Anderson, and Glen Davis. That isn't going to get you very far. Not even one of Big Baby's alter-egos can save Orlando this time.

How the Pacers can win: Take it seriously. It is clear that Indiana is far superior to the Dwight-less Magic and one could argue that they would still handle Orlando even if Howard was playing.

Still, the Pacers still have to play the games, and taking your opponent lightly is never a good thing, regardless of who that opponent may be. A lot of people don't realize how truly well-rounded this Indiana team is. Maybe getting on the national stage in the postseason will bring that to light.

Final thoughts: Again, I just cannot envision the Pacers losing this series. I see Roy Hibbert having a few monster games, as absolutely no one on the Magic can check him. Also, Darren Collison's quickness could end up giving Nelson fits. I do think Orlando will put forth a valiant effort, but it just does not have the talent sans Howard (and Hedo Turkoglu) to be able to pull through.

Prediction: Pacers in five. I hate predicting sweeps, so I'll give Orlando one game at home where Indiana might lay a stinker.

(5) Atlanta Hawks vs. (4) Boston Celtics

How the Hawks can win: Make the Celtics run. Atlanta is a good team in transition, thanks mostly to athletic freak Josh Smith. That is really the only way I see the Hawks having a chance in this series. They just don't have the kind of talent to hang with Boston in a seven-game series.

How the Celtics can win: Slow the game down. If Boston can keep Atlanta from getting out on the break, it's over. The Celtics can certainly run a fast-paced offense with Rajon Rondo, but I really don't see why they'd want to in this instance because that is exactly what the Hawks want them to do. Pound the ball into Kevin Garnett, run Ray Allen off of some screens (assuming he's healthy), and let Paul Pierce do his thing.

Final thoughts: Atlanta can't feel too good about the fact that the Celtics nearly beat them in their own backyard with Garnett, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo all sitting out, and let's face it: Boston has been absolutely rolling since the All-Star break.

I am not saying this will not be a competitive series, as I do not expect the C's to blow the Hawks out of the water. However, without Al Horford, who could potentially exploit Boston's rebounding deficiencies, I just don't see Atlanta taking this series beyond six games, and I don't even think it will get that far.

Prediction: Celtics in five. A date with the Bulls in Round 2 awaits. Something tells me that will be a great one.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(8) Utah Jazz vs. (1) San Antonio Spurs

How the Spurs can win: They should remember what happened to them in the playoffs last year, when the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies knocked them out of the first round. This Jazz squad employs a very similar formula to that Memphis team, as they have a great and deep frontcourt plus a team that can get out and run.

San Antonio cannot waste any time in taking advantage of homecourt and winning the first two games of the series. The key here is the point guard matchup, where Tony Parker must come out on top against the surging Devin Harris. If Parker allows Harris to get the better of him, then the Spurs could be in deep trouble. I don't see that happening, though.

How the Jazz can win: They should watch as much film as possible of how the Grizzlies beat San Antonio last year. Utah has the personnel to do it, with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, and Enes Kanter comprising what may very well be the deepest frontcourt in the NBA.

Also, role players such as Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks have been playing very well, and they will need to be huge in this series to try and offset the Spurs' unbelievable amount of depth. Do not underestimate the Jazz—they are a very solid team and are better than their eighth seed indicates.

Final thoughts: Do I think Utah can win this series? I just don't see it happening. However, Jefferson and company will certainly give San Antonio all it can handle, and it would not shock me to see this series go six games. Fortunately for the Spurs, Manu Ginobili does not have a broken arm this time around, and along with the MVP-caliber season that Parker is having plus Tim Duncan's continued defiance of father time, I don't see any reason why they will not be moving on.

Prediction: Spurs in six. I'm really looking forward to this one.

(7) Dallas Mavericks vs. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder

How the Mavericks can win: Brendan Haywood needs to channel the departed Chandler. Obviously, Haywood isn't going to turn into Chandler, but he at least needs to be able to patrol the paint and keep Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden (assuming he is healthy enough to play) out of it. While Nowitzki was the Mavs' best player, Chandler was the glue who held the team together. With him out of the lineup, it makes Dallas that much less formidable. Oh, and Dirk needs to go off. Plain and simple.

How the Thunder can win: I'm sure we all remember last season, when the Mavericks ousted Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals en route to an NBA championship. Things are obviously different this time around, as the Thunder are much improved and Dallas is, well, not nearly as good as it was last year.

The key for Oklahoma City in this series is to limit Dirk Nowitzki's opportunities as much as possible. He may end up being a tough cover for Serge Ibaka (then again, who isn't Nowitzki a tough cover for?), as he will pull the terrific shot-blocker away from the rim, but Ibaka possesses the athleticism to at least be able to stay with Nowitzki out on the perimeter. The Mavs do not have the kind of depth they had last season, putting even more onus on Dirk to carry the load. If the Thunder can contain him, then it's lights out.

Final thoughts: I feel like I should say that you should never underestimate the heart of a champion, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to pull this one out.

The loss of Chandler and players like Jose Juan Barea and DeShawn Stevenson, two key components to Dallas' title run last season, is going to be too much for the Mavs to bear.

However, Harden's health (thanks to Metta World Peace's elbow) is a fairly significant factor in this series.

If he isn't well enough to play the full series or he isn't at 100 percent, Oklahoma City must find a third scorer to complement Durant and Westbrook, and I don't think it has one. An unhealthy Harden could spell trouble for the Thunder, but I'm thinking he'll be well enough.

Prediction: Thunder in six. Dallas will make this a series, but Oklahoma City is simply the better team this season.

(6) Denver Nuggets vs. (3) Los Angeles Lakers

How the Nuggets can win: Run, run, run. It is no secret that Denver is an outstanding fastbreak team, and it is also no secret that Los Angeles is not one for playing at a rapid pace.

Ty Lawson, who has turned into a very nice point guard, will have to constantly push the tempo in this series and find players such as Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo, Kenneth Faried, and JaVale McGee on the break. The Nuggets can also kill you with their three-point shooting, so if guys like Gallinari and Al Harrington are on, the Lakers could be in for some trouble.

I should also mention the Afflalo/Kobe Bryant matchup. Afflalo is an outstanding defender, and if he can limit Bryant and force him into some bad shots, Denver might have a shot.

How the Lakers can win: Utilize Andrew Bynum as much as possible. While the Nuggets do have some size down low with the likes of McGee and Kosta Koufos, they do not exactly have all-world defenders in the paint.

Bynum can easily exploit those mismatches, and if he does, Denver could be in for a long series. That said, the problem is that Los Angeles never seems to use Bynum to his full capacity, and I don't see why that would change now.

Yes, I understand that the Lakers have Bryant and Pau Gasol, but when you have a dominant low-post presence like Bynum, you have to give him the ball. Let's see if Mike Brown actually emphasizes that in this series.

Final thoughts: This is going to be a fun series. The Nuggets are an exciting ballclub with a ton of depth, and L.A. is, well, L.A.—a team that can beat you in multiple ways.

I expect this to be a very competitive series, as it is definitely one of the better first-round matchups we have. All things considered, I think Denver's lack of a true low-post presence is going to be its ultimate downfall. The Nuggets will certainly put points on the board, but when it's late in the game and they need easy buckets, who are they going to be pound the ball to?

The Lakers have Bynum and Gasol for that, not to mention one of the league's best closers in Bryant.

Prediction: Lakers in six. It won't be easy, but Kobe and his boys will get it done, even with World Peace potentially missing the entire series.

(5) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (4) Memphis Grizzlies

How the Clippers can win: DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, and Kenyon Martin need to dig in defensively, because the Grizzlies have one of the deadliest frontcourts in the league with Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Marreese Speights.

I understand that defense is not exactly Griffin's forte, but he is a big body and needs to at least attempt to limit whomever he is covering. Also, Chris Paul needs to absolutely dominate the point guard matchup with Mike Conley.

I believe that Memphis is the superior team here and that the only way Los Angeles can win this series is if Paul turns into Superman, much like he did against the Lakers in a first-round loss last year.

How the Grizzlies can win: Dominate the paint. It's that simple. Memphis' formula is extremely conducive to winning, and that is why I think the Grizzlies are going to come out of the West this year. Last season, they beat the Spurs and took the Thunder to seven games without Rudy Gay.

Well, Gay is here this time around, and Memphis is even deeper this year. With Gasol, Randolph, and Speights up front, Gay's job becomes that much easier, and he could end up having a huge series because of those three bigs.

This team can beat you in so many ways it's scary. Did I also mention that the Grizz may have the league's best perimeter defender in Tony Allen?

Final thoughts: As exciting as the Clippers are, I can't see them winning this series.

They are an extremely talented team, but, much like Denver, their lack of a low-post scorer is going to kill them. Griffin is an outstanding talent, but he has yet to develop a consistent back-to-the-basket game, and until he does that, Los Angeles will always be nothing more than a fringe title contender.

I'm not saying this series is going to be a cakewalk for Memphis, because it certainly won't. However, I have a feeling it is going to be one of those series where no matter what happens, you just know the Grizzlies are going to come out on top.

Prediction: Grizzlies in six. I wanted to say five, but I'll give L.A. another game.