NBA Playoffs 2012 Bracket: Breaking Down Road to Championship

Well, that went by fast, didn't it?

The 2011-12 NBA regular season, I mean.

It's kind of amazing how quickly four months pass by in The Association when they're packed with teams playing out the string of the 66-game schedule.

The quality of play wasn't always so great, and we'll certainly miss the antics of the Washington Wizards, the burgeoning brilliance of Kyrie Irving, the comically blatant attempts at tanking by the Golden State Warriors, the remnants of the Minnesota Rubio-Loves and, of course, watching Michael Jordan die a little inside every time the Charlotte Bobcats fumble away another embarrassing effort.

But it's time for the playoffs, dangit! There will be plenty of time for memeification and blogospheric bug-outs now that the games actually mean something and the players will actually (and presumably) give it their all on a nightly basis.

Because, in the NBA, the ring is the thing, and now that it's on the table, all bets are off.

Sort of.

In any case, let's have a look at each of the first round series and how they figure to shake out.

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East: No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series: Chicago 2-1

It's fitting that the Bulls and the 76ers would meet as the one-seed and the eight-seed in the East, considering how inverse they are from one another, at least on the surface.

On the one hand is Chicago, which at one time appeared to be a one-man team of Derrick Rose and the Rosettes. The Bulls finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference despite spending nearly half the season without the reigning MVP, who had more issues than the dude from the "Operation" board game.

Philly, on the other hand, looked early on like the ideal fit to weather the compressed schedule—a young team that can run, defend and go 10 players deep. Heck, Lou Williams, the Sixers' sixth man, is the squad's leading scorer!

Doug Collins' whole plan to have his team win the Atlantic Division as a sleeper fell through once that "share the wealth" philosophy manifested itself as the lack of a go-to scorer, particularly in the clutch, and a general inability to put the ball in the basket.

And, of course, the Bulls proved that they're anything but a one-man team by doing what they did, squeezing primetime performances out of role players like CJ Watson, John Lucas III, Ronnie Brewer and Taj Gibson.

But as much as the Bulls thrived without Rose in the lineup this season, they'll be hard-pressed to make any sort of noise in the playoffs if he's not healthy enough to play at a high level.

That being said, Chicago has the sort of size up front—with Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Gibson off the bench—along with a smothering defense fueled by the fiery stylings of Tom Thibodeau, to frustrate Philly in the first round.

Regardless of how close to 100 percent Rose may be.

Verdict: Bulls in 5

West: No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz

Season Series: Spurs 3-1

Well, well, well...what have we here? The Spurs are right back where they were around this time last year.

That is, perched atop the Western Conference, despite having been written off by everyone and their mother prior to the season.

Not without reason, of course. San Antonio looked old and overmatched in losing to the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the 2011 playoffs.

Then again, Manu Ginobili wasn't as healthy then as he is now. The Spurs' supporting cast has also taken a step up this season, with Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw adding depth alongside the long-time core of Ginobili, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan.

Still, the Spurs won't get out of the first round without a fight. The Jazz sport the sort of size up front—between Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors—to give the Spurs a run for their money. Jefferson might be the most underrated player in the league, if only because he plays in Salt Lake City, while Millsap is an absolute beast on the boards.

That sort of strength and height on the interior should allow the Jazz to give San Antonio fits in the rebounding department and slow the pace with a half-court game, thereby neutralizing the Spurs' newfound run-and-gun style.

And if San Antonio controls the tempo, the Jazz have the young legs and the athletes to keep up, now that Devin Harris is playing like a pro again with CJ Miles and Alec Burks flying in off the wing.

Oh yeah, and Gordon Hayward is actually a pretty good shooting guard after all. 

Forget about the fact that the Jazz are 3-1 in postseason series against the Spurs since the NBA-ABA merger. What matters most here is the Spurs' particular blend of youth, experience and perfectly groomed role players, all plugged in like puzzle pieces by the coaching mastermind of Gregg Popovich.

With Parker playing like an MVP at the point and Duncan and Ginobili competing on fresh(ish) legs, the Spurs will put last year's disappointment behind them against a team that they've dominated since the end of the Karl Malone-John Stockton era.

Verdict: Spurs in 5

East: No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 New York Knicks

Season Series: Heat 3-0

Miami came into the season as the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA title, after coming within two games (and some fourth-quarter choke jobs) of doing so in Year 1 of the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh era.

And while the Heat haven't exactly disappointed, per se, they haven't quite blown past the competition as they'd been expected to. LeBron's put himself in position to win his third MVP, thanks to one of the most remarkable statistical seasons in NBA history, while Wade has played spectacularly.

When healthy, that is.

Bosh hasn't been bad, but it's clear that he's not the post presence that this team so desperately needs. That's forced James to spend more time on the block, where he's actually been incredibly effective, thanks to his strength, athleticism and ever-improving footwork.

The drop-off in quality beyond those three, though, is stark, enough so to imperil the Heat's title hopes. Shane Battier's been a bust as a free-agent signing, Norris Cole ran into the rookie wall months ago and the remaining core of role players (Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem) has been maddeningly inconsistent.

Not to mention the consummate issues at center, where Joel Anthony's since seen his playing time usurped by...Ronny Turiaf and Dexter Pittman?

Really?

Ugh.

Still, the Heat are unstoppable on the fast break and play some of the best defense in the NBA, which should be enough to push past the Knicks in the first round.

Believe it or not, New York might be the most talented team in the East, at least on paper. The Knicks' roster features current or former All-Stars at small forward (Carmelo Anthony), power forward (Amar'e Stoudemire) and point guard (Baron Davis); All-NBA defensive performers at center (Tyson Chandler) and shooting guard (Iman Shumpert); and three guys off the bench (JR Smith, Steve Novak and Landry Jones) who can light it up from beyond the arc.

They've been playing much better on both sides of the ball since Mike Woodson took over for Mike D'Antoni on the bench. 'Melo's settled in nicely in Woodson's isolation offense, while everyone seems to be chipping in that extra two percent defensively.

The Knicks' biggest issue may well be the constant state of flux in which they've been all season. Between injuries (to 'Melo, STAT and Jeremy Lin) and coaching changes, New York hasn't really had the opportunity to coalesce as a team.

The Heat, on the other hand, have had a fairly clear identity for some time, one that's proven effective in sweeping the Knicks during the regular season.

Miami won't be able to brush the Big Apple aside so readily in the postseason, though. Expect the Knicks to take at least one game by way of the home-crowd energy at Madison Square Garden.

But for the Heat to move on to Round 2. 

Verdict: Miami in 6

West: No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks

Season Series: Thunder 3-1

What a difference a year makes.

Kind of.

The Thunder are back in the playoffs with essentially the same roster with which they reached the 2011 Western Conference Finals, though the expectations are weightier than ever. Kevin Durant captured his third straight scoring title while Russell Westbrook proved that, by and large, he deserves to take as many shots as he does, even with such a transcendent talent by his side.

Because, well, Westy is just that good himself.

OKC's most important player, though, may well be James Harden, who should be good to go after taking that vicious elbow to the head from Metta World Peace on the last Sunday of the regular season. Harden is the anchor of the Thunder's second unit and is the only reliable scoring option on the team outside of Durant and Westbrook.

No offense to Serge Ibaka, who can throw down thunderous dunks and hit the occasion 16-foot jumper but whose value is far greater on the defensive end.

Granted, the Thunder can win games if/when Harden's not hitting his shots, but won't go very far if he's not in rhythm throughout.

But there's not much depth beyond the aforementioned foursome. Kendrick Perkins has been decent in the middle, but hasn't had quite the impact that the team had hoped for when they signed him to a four-year, $34.8 million deal last year. Thabo Sefolosha is an athletic defender at the "two", but is pretty much just a placeholder to keep Harden on the bench.

Nick Collison brings energy, Derek Fisher has championship experience and Daequan Cook can hit the occasional three...and that's about it.

All of which adds up to a three-man team that relies almost exclusively on jump shots without so much as a post presence.

That may not be enough to win the title, but it should be plenty to sneak past the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.

Now, you could point to last year's 4-1 result in the Western Conference Finals as reason to believe that the Mavs can shake up the postseason picture in the first round.

However, to do so would ignore just how interior this year's edition is to last year's. The free-agent departures of Tyson Chandler, DeShawn Stevenson and JJ Barea depleted Dallas' depth and defensive prowess, leaving behind little more than a low-level playoff team that's waiting on Deron Williams to bounce from the Brooklyn-bound Nets.

Let's not discount the remaining roster at Rick Carlisle's disposal, though. Dirk Nowitzki is still more than capable of getting hot and putting the team on his back, as is Jason Terry off the bench. Jason Kidd figures to play with an added fervor, given that this may be his last run before he calls it a career.

The addition of Vince Carter, coupled with the eventual subtraction of Lamar Odom, also leaves the Mavs in position to surprise some people.

Again.

Even though they just won the title.

There's not much Dallas can do to delay the impending changing of the guard in the West, particularly not one as young and athletic across the board as OKC.

But you can bet that when the Mavs go down, they'll do so with the valiance of a fading power.

One waiting on the arrival of another superstar.

Verdict: Thunder in 6 

East: No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Orlando Magic

Season Series: Magic 3-1

There may not be a bigger lock in the first round than the Pacers.

Which scares me a bit, because the playoffs shouldn't be so predictable...right?

But the Magic are practically toast without Dwight Howard, who's out for the rest of the season (and the Summer Olympics) after undergoing back surgery.

Can Orlando really hope to compete in the playoffs without the guy around whom the team is built, on both ends of the floor? Who's going to suck in the defense and kick the ball back out to shooters like Jason Richardson, JJ Redick and Ryan Anderson? Who's going to anchor the defense and make up for the Magic's slow feet on the perimeter?

Not Glen Davis. Certainly not Daniel Orton.

Surely, the Pacers would've preferred to win a playoff series for the first time since 2005 against a team that wasn't such a lame duck.

But, Indy won't argue. It'll take a quick series as an opportunity to give Roy Hibbert, Danny Granger, Paul George and Darren Collison a bit more playoff seasoning before a likely matchup with the Miami Heat in the second round.

Verdict: Pacers in 4 

West: No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets

Season Series: Lakers 3-1

Let's get one thing straight before anything else.

Yes, the Lakers will miss Metta World Peace, as much for the "depth" that his presence created at small forward as for his defensive toughness and improved play as he shed weight over the course of the season.

No, the Lakers aren't royally screwed without him.

At least, not yet.

Devin Ebanks showed some flashes of ability during Kobe Bryant's recent stint on the sideline, and after Ron-Ron was ejected from the OKC game, and Matt Barnes has been a spark plug off the bench all season.

That aside, it's finally time for the Purple and Gold to shine, if they're destined to do so at all. I've been a proponent of Mike Brown through thick and thin throughout the campaign, and it's in the postseason that his presence on the bench is bound to pay dividends. It's been a long, slow and often painful process, but Brown has fashioned LA into half-court, defensive-minded team, as much to take advantage of the team's strengths (i.e. size and experience) as mask its obvious deficits of speed and athleticism.

Brown has hoped all along to apply his experience as an assistant with the Duncan-David Robinson Spurs to the Lakers' dynamic duo of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, as well he should; there's not a team in the league that can subdue those two.

Assuming, of course, that Bynum isn't loafing his way through as he so often does, especially on defense.

The addition of Ramon Sessions at the point has breathed some much-needed youth and quickness to LA's situation at the point, as well.

But, as with anything involving the Lakers, it all comes down to Kobe. Can he continue to play at a high level, despite playing nearly 39 minutes per game this season? Will he willingly defer to Bynum and Gasol in the paint, rather than assume that his team is doomed if he doesn't jack up tough shot after tough shot?

These are all pertinent questions, ones that'll have to be answered against the Denver Nuggets, in the absence of World Peace.

George Karl deserves tons of credit for keeping this team together despite injuries to Danilo Gallinari and Rudy Fernandez and a deadline deal that swapped out Nene for JaVale McGee.

A deal, by the way, that could pay significant dividends against the Lakers. Nene's departure opened up playing time for Kenneth Faried, who's earned his nickname (Manimal) with seven double-doubles since then.

McGee's length and Faried's strength figure to give Bynum and Gasol fits, regardless of who's paired up with whom.

World Peace's absence should open things up a bit for Gallo, though the Italian stallion isn't exactly the fleetest afoot. That should leave Ebanks some leeway to use his length and athleticism as a disruptive force on defense.

If Denver's going to pull the upset, it'll need Ty Lawson to lead the way. The third-year point guard out of North Carolina has emerged as one of the fastest players in the league with the ball in his hands and has plenty of strength to boot.

The Lakers have historically had difficulty containing point guards, period, though particularly those with Lawson's particular profile. Should Lawson slice and dice LA's defense as he surely can, then Denver might just pull off the Mile High miracle.

As it stands, look for the Lakers to exploit their advantage on the interior ad nauseum, whether The Black Mamba likes it or not, on the way to a hard-fought first-round victory.

Verdict: Lakers in 6

East: No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

Season Series: Celtics 2-1

If you're trying to pick out the weirdest series of the first round, then Celtics-Hawks is Exhibit A.

Boston goes into the series as the higher seed, by virtue of winning the Atlantic Division, but will have to cede home-court advantage to Atlanta, which owns the better regular-season record between the two.  

Both teams are incredibly limited up front, with Boston leaning on Brandon Bass, Greg Stiemsma and a rejuvenated-but-still-old Kevin Garnett and Atlanta counting on Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins to hold the fort in the middle.

Okay, so maybe that characterization isn't entirely fair to the Hawks, who have shoulda-been-All-Star Josh Smith at the "four" and Ivan "The Terrible" Johnson coming off the bench...

But mostly just "J-Smoov", as the kids call him.

The Hawks have seemingly settled in as a team that does pretty well in the regular season but doesn't inspire much in the way of confidence once the playoffs roll around.

Yet, as well as the C's have played in the second half, they may be more susceptible than ever to a first-round exit. If Ray Allen isn't healthy enough to play, Doc Rivers will be left to juggle five (maybe six) reliable players in his rotation, two of whom (Garnett and Paul Pierce) aren't exactly spry, young chicks anymore.

The key to this series may well rest in the backcourt, where Rajon Rondo and sophomore sensation Avery Bradley will be matched up against Jeff Teague and Joe Johnson. If Rondo can put together at least one or two ridiculous Rondo games (like the 10-10-20 game he had against Atlanta on April 11th) and Bradley can pester Johnson into some poor shooting performances...and KG can continue to guard like a maniac against Smith...then the C's should be able to survive, with or without Allen off the bench.

But if Ray's ankle is more-or-less healed in time, Boston shouldn't have too much trouble dispatching Hotlanta.

That's a lot of "if's" for an old team, but if there's any team in the league with the veteran savvy to overcome them, it's the Cs.

Verdict: Celtics in 5 (if Allen is healthy) or 6 (if he isn't)

West: No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

Season Series: Clippers 2-1

This matchup has seven games written all over it.

The Clippers nearly climbed from 13th in the West last season to home-court advantage in the playoffs this time around, thanks almost entirely to the presence of Chris Paul.

Who, by the way, is my pick for the MVP. After all, CP3 is the only major upgrade to the Clips' roster who's still playing (sorry, Chauncey Billups), unless anyone really thinks Caron Butler and Nick Young fit that bill.

Granted, LA is more than a two-man team, though Blake Griffin might've actually gone backward a little bit this year—on account of his showboating, flopping and constant complaining to the refs—and DeAndre Jordan has emerged as a sleeper pick for "Most Disappointing Performance From a Guy Playing on a New Contract."

What's more, no combination of Randy Foye, Mo Williams and "Swaggy P" can cover up the fact that the Clips are vulnerable at the "two."

The Clippers' biggest problem, though, may be the lock of playoff seasoning up and down this roster.

As in, it's never a good sign when Kenyon Martin is your most battled-tested postseason player.

Losing three out of four to end the season left LA in fifth to face Memphis, which everyone and their mother has already tagged as the sleeper team in this playoffs this year.

And for good reason. Last spring, the Grizzlies shocked the top-seeded Spurs in the first round and came agonizingly close to turning a similar trick against the Thunder in the second round, without the services of Rudy Gay.

He's healthy now and the Grizz are a much better team all around, though not just because of Gay's return. An early-season injury to Zach Randolph spurred GM Chris Wallace to acquire Marreese Speights from the 76ers. Speights played so well in Z-Bo's stead that head coach Lionel Hollins opted to keep the Florida product in the starting lineup when Randolph came back.

Which means that Memphis now has an All-Star power forward coming off the bench with OJ Mayo and (to a lesser degree) Gilbert Arenas.

And don't sleep on the Grizzlies' starting five, which features an All-Star center (Marc Gasol), a go-to scorer (Gay), an All-NBA defender (Tony Allen) and a speedy point guard (Mike Conley) alongside Speights.

The Grizz also happen to be peaking at just the right time, with six wins in a row to close out the regular season.

Give the edge to Memphis, then, with a nod from the Three D's—depth, discipline and defense.

All of which point back to Hollins outcoaching the sheepish Vinny Del Negro.

Verdict: Grizzlies in 6