Toronto Blue Jays: Predicting the Jays' Top 5 Home Run Hitters at Season's End

After a 2011 season that saw the Toronto Blue Jays pound 186 home runs as a team (good for fifth in all of Major League Baseball), many have placed some lofty expectations on the 2012 Blue Jays squad.

Is it possible that this year's edition of the blue birds can hit even more home runs than they did in 2011?

In one word: yes.

With the usual power threats in Jose Bautista and Adam Lind still in the lineup, a full season from young gun Brett Lawrie, one of the better power hitting catchers in baseball in J.P. Arencibia, as well as 20 home run hitters like Kelly Johnson and Edwin Encarnacion, there is no reason to believe that the 2012 Blue Jays can't finish third or fourth in the Major Leagues in long bombs.

Here are my picks for the Blue Jays' top five home run hitters come season's end, along with how many each of them will hit.

Honorable Mention: J.P. Arencibia

While Arencibia was the Blue Jays third best home run hitter a year ago, there will be a few factors that keep him from reaching his 2011 home run total of 23 and staying in the top five on the Blue Jays roster.

First off, his start to 2012 hasn't been sensational.

While he's recovered of late and hit very well in the four game series with Kansas City, he's only hit one home run so far in 2012.

Second, last year was his first full season with the big club.

Pitchers tend to test young hitters with fastballs until they can prove they're capable of hitting them, which allowed Arencibia to hit plenty of fastballs out of the park.

This year, however, he'll face a steady dose of other pitches and will have to learn how to hit breaking pitches for home runs before he sees too many fastballs.

Third, he's a catcher, and will need to be rested more often than other position players, with Jeff Mathis proving to be a much more reliable backup so far than Jose Molina.

Finally, the focus in practice for J.P. will be on his defensive play. He's already shown he can hit and catchers are used for their defensive game anyway. With more focus on his defense, it is feasible that his home run total could slip a bit this year.

Final Home Run Tally: 16 home runs

5. Brett Lawrie

I know what you're thinking right now.

"Not another writer that is going to promise Brett Lawrie reaches the 30-30 club in his first full season in the bigs".

Not to worry, I won't.

Heck I won't even predict Lawrie steals 20 bases to get him to the 20-20 plateau (though I do think he has the speed to do it).

When it comes to home runs though, I wouldn't put it past Brett Lawrie to hit at least 20 in a full season in Toronto.

First off, there's the fact that he's got the skill and power to do it. That much is obvious.

People's main worry about Lawrie is that he hits further down in the lineup (usually anywhere between fifth and seventh) and won't see many good pitches.

Problem with that logic is that even the guys below him can hit the ball hard. Colby Rasmus and J.P. Arencibia can both put up 20 home runs in any given season. While I don't think that will happen this year, I do believe they have that potential.

For that reason, I think Lawrie will see enough good pitches to swat upwards of 20 long balls in 2012.

Final Home Run Tally: 20 home runs

4. Kelly Johnson

Call me crazy, but I think Kelly Johnson will be the surprise Blue Jays player of the year. Yes, I know, he's already got six home runs, so it's easy to think he'll finish in the top five among Jays players come season's end.

But second basemen don't typically hit for power, and this could just be a small power surge from Johnson.

However, Johnson gives us reason to believe this power can be sustained. He has, after all, hit more than 20 home runs each of the last two seasons and definitely has the power to do it again (as witnessed by his six home runs in just 23 games played).

While the American League East division may have some quality arms, the starting rotations for the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox aren't nearly as menacing as they have been in the past.

Couple this with Johnson's big swing, and the fact that he's sure to continue to see pitches out of the two hole in front of Jose Bautista, and it is likely Kelly Johnson will have his third consecutive 20 home run campaign.

Final Home Run Tally: 23 home runs

3. Adam Lind

Let's face it.

Adam Lind may not warrant batting 4th in this lineup.

With Edwin Encarnacion lighting up American League pitchers, and Lind struggling to hit the ball period, let alone hit for power, it's time for him to be pushed to fifth in the lineup (maybe even sixth if Brett Lawrie continues to make solid contact).

But to say this guy won't finish the season with at least 20 home runs is absurd.

Over the last three seasons, he's hit at least 25 home runs twice and never hit less than 23.

In fact, he's averaged a stellar 28 home runs per season.

While he may never replicate the 35 home runs and 114 RBI campaign he put up in 2009, there is no reason to think he won't be able to match last year's respectable 26 home runs and 87 RBI.

With Lawrie and Encarnacion emerging as legitimate everyday threats, Lind should easily be able to maintain his three-year-averages, if not improve on them.

Give it some time, we're only 25 games in (22 for Lind).

Final Home Run Tally: 25 home runs

2. Edwin Encarnacion

You can choose whether you believe this next statement or not, but I had Edwin Encarnacion pegged for a 30+ home run season before his last six game stretch.

As a Cubs fan, I remember watching him play when he was in Cincinnati, and even the Cubs announcers would fawn over Edwin's ability to clobber the baseball.

It seems that this season, he's finally living up to that potential.

While he won't continue to smack nine home runs every 25 games, he will hit the 30 home run plateau.

Now that he's finally more comfortable with playing in Toronto, and more importantly, not having to play third base, there's no reason to think that come season's end, Edwin won't have a nice .285 batting average to go with 30+ home runs and 90 or so RBI.

Final Home Run Tally: 32 home runs

1. Jose Bautista

Consider this.

Even with his sluggish start, Bautista has managed to hit four home runs. Even at this rate (which is considered disappointing for him) he's on pace to finish with about 26 home runs. That is a very solid number.

Everyone knows Bautista will pick up his production.

There is no reason to believe that Bautista won't hit an average of six home runs per month from here on out.

Even if Encarnacion continues his surprising season, the home run leader of these Toronto Blue Jays come season's end will be Jose Bautista.

You can take that to the bank.

Final Home Run Tally: 36 home runs

Have Your Say

Do you think that the guy in the picture above will end up being the surprise home run leader of the Jays come October?

Think Bautista's struggles will persist, or that five 20 home run hitters on one team is being too optimistic?

Maybe you're someone who has lost faith in Adam Lind and think I'm absolutely bonkers to still think he's an elite hitter.

Whatever your thoughts may be, let me know by leaving a comment in the section below.

That and drop me a line on twitter @LeafsWriterBR. I'm always on. Well, almost always.