NBA Playoffs 2012 Predictions: Memphis Grizzlies a Sleeper Pick in the West

You have probably been as confused as anyone about the state of the Western Conference. In a conference where the No. 2 and No. 8 seeds were separated at one point by just five games, teams have been fighting for their positions all season long, leading to teams suddenly dropping in the standings after a three-game losing streak (Lakers) or teams suddenly climbing the standings after a good week.

This has left fans without a solid choice as to who is going to come out of the Western Conference. Unlike seasons past, where fans simply penciled in the Lakers out of the West year after year, this year’s race seems to be wide open.

With flawed teams at the top, this is the year where a surprise team can emerge out of the Western Conference if the matchups are in their favor.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the favorite choice of many to come out of the Western Conference. However, this team has many flaws that can be exploited come playoff time.

Defensively, they are not playing the quality defense needed to win consistently in the playoffs. Their team defensive statistics are all down from last season. Offensively, they all too often find themselves having to rely heavily on three players to do a majority of the scoring.

Further, none of their top three options (Durant, Westbrook and Harden) present any semblance of a post game. The fact that they have no post presence that can get easy baskets in pressure situations is a concern, because in the playoffs, when defenses zone in on specific players, the perimeter players need a pressure release in the form of a post-up option. 

The Thunder rely heavily on turnovers and easy fast-break points, which will not work in the playoffs when the game slows down to a grind. Once this happens, the Thunder offense of high pick-and-rolls and Durant coming off of double picks will prove too inefficient to win in the playoffs. 

The San Antonio Spurs are having another great season where they won many games and have people believing they will make a deep run in the playoffs. We have seen this story before, haven’t we?

The Spurs have not made it to the Western Conference Finals since 2007, when they last won it all. After being eliminated by the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies in last year's playoffs, the Spurs have acquired no notable players since last season other than rookie Kawhi Leonard, the underperforming Stephan Jackson and Boris Diaw, while hoping Tiago Splitter blossoms.

The Spurs will have to rely heavily on the guard tandem of Parker and Ginobili once again to carry them offensively in a Phoenix Suns-type offense. Tim Duncan’s age and lack of mobility has left a post-scoring void, which will once again leave the Spurs hoping that Tiago Splitter will fill that void.

I would not put big money on Splitter filling that huge void left by Duncan.

Following a dazzling offseason acquisition of Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups, the Los Angeles Clippers are poised to make some noise. The lack of scoring from the shooting guard (Billups injury), center positions and the bench left Chris Paul having to become a scorer to keep the Clippers competitive.

However, following the pickup of Nick Young, who is not afraid to put points on the scoreboard, the Clippers began playing well once again. Further, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan's free-throw percentage will inhibit the team from going to them late in games for fear of being fouled and having to shoot free throws.

Defensively, the Clippers are all sizzle and no pop. While Jordan gets two blocks a game and CP3 gets steals by playing the passing lanes, their team defense leaves a lot to be desired.

They will surely make some noise in the playoffs with Chris Paul controlling the entire game; however, they will not have enough defensive intensity to make it to the Western Conference Finals. 

The soap opera that is the Los Angeles Lakers has been front-page news in the NBA since December 10, 2011. Having the CP3 deal rejected by Stern (acting on behalf of the owners) and subsequently trading away Odom for a trade exception, the new coaching staff and system have been hurt in this shortened season.

Although Andrew Bynum has blossomed into an All-Star, there are too many flaws for them to overcome this season. Their lack of depth off the bench, lack of a solid backup big man and lack of easy points will harm them in the playoffs.

The Lakers are last in the league in steals per game and opponent turnovers, which does not allow them to get out on fast breaks and score easy points. Also, for all the progress Andrew Bynum has made this season, he still has not learned how to pass out of the double-team and is sometimes even unwilling to pass out.

Although these are not major flaws, it will prevent the Lakers from advancing when/if they match up with our sleeper pick.

Finally, we get to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are the sleeper pick to come out the Western Conference. The Memphis Grizzlies proved to have a lot of heart last season coming from the No. 8 seed to defeat the No. 1 seed and taking the Thunder (this year's favorite) to seven games (Game 4 went into triple OT) without their leader, Rudy Gay.

The playoff run will give them the experience needed to get out of the Wild Wild West. They have played more than half the season without arguably their best player, Zach Randolph. They have one of, if not the best frontcourt in the league in All-Star Marc Gasol and Randolph, who are nicely complemented by one of the more underrated point guards in the league (Michael Conley) and Rudy Gay (an All-Star candidate this year). To round out their starting lineup, they have Tony Allen, the best wing defender in the league.

Off the bench, they have Sixth Man of the Year candidate and former USC star O.J. Mayo, Marreese Speights, Gilbert Arenas, Jeremy Pargo and Quincy Pondexter.

The Grizzlies are top 10 in points allowed and rebound differential. Further, they lead the league in steals and causing turnovers. These will prove to be the deciding factors when/if they play the Thunder, as both Durant and Westbrook are in the top five in the league in turnovers per game.

This team is vastly underrated due to their small market. They are being overlooked as they do not have a marquee name on their roster.

This shortened season has been a wild and bumpy ride for most of the teams, and it's about to get even bumpier in the playoffs when a surprise team makes it to the NBA Finals. The owners get what they wanted (parity) and the fans get another Cinderella playoff run to top off another amazing season in the NBA.

Stay tuned for more insightful commentary as the NBA season comes to a conclusion and the playoffs get underway.