Washington Nationals: 6 Keys to the Nationals Making the Playoffs

Where did all these people come from?

How did this bandwagon get so crowded?

Indeed, the Washington Nationals are the chic pick of many experts and baseball enthusiasts to make the playoffs this season. Lovable losers no more, the Nats seem to be on the cusp of bigger and better things.

But, is all this optimism justified or will the Nationals just be another chapter in the horror story that has been the DC sports scene since the Redskins last brought a major championship to the nation's capital in 1992?

It was hard to get a feel for the Nationals in spring training. Their final record of 12-17 was not exactly awe inspiring. In the middle of spring training, the Nats went 11 straight games without a win. Yes, I know—spring training does not mean anything. Still, an 11 game winless streak is never a good thing no matter when it happens.

Now, with a 2-0 start, even more people will start to believe that maybe, just maybe, the Nationals can compete for a National League playoff berth.

In studying the Nationals and what they bring to the table, I believe there are six key things that must happen for Washington to see playoff baseball for the first time since the Senators played in the 1933 World Series.

1. Get off to a Hot Start

So far, so good.

The Nationals come from behind win over the Cubs yesterday gave them a 2-0 record, a good start to be sure. At the risk of sounding greedy though, the Nats need more. They really need to rack up the wins in April if they want to play baseball in October—beyond the closing series with the Phillies of course.

The schedule is quite favorable for the Nationals to accomplish just that. In April, the Nats play the Cubs, Mets, Reds, Astros, Marlins, Padres, and Dodgers.

The Nats have already clinched the series against the Cubs. If Washington can win all of the remaining series, they would end April with a 16-7 record, at worst. That is the kind of start a young, up and coming team, can really build on.

And, really, there is no reason to think it can't be done. The two really tough series will be against the Reds and Marlins, but both of those series will be played in Washington.

With the schedule as favorable as it appears, getting off to a hot start would be a key factor in any playoff push for the Nationals this season.

2. Improve Their Record in 1 Run Games

In 2011, the Nationals had a 27-27 record in one run games.

They must improve upon that mark in 2012 if they want to make the playoffs.

Good teams, and teams who succeed in the regular season as well as the playoffs, are usually the ones who succeed in close games. Winning close games builds character and confidence all at once.

Take a look at the final standings for 2011. In the National League, all of the playoff teams had winning records in one run games. If the extra wild card berth that is being introduced this year had been in play in 2011, the Braves would have qualified for the playoffs. They too had a winning record in one run games.

That is probably not a coincidence.

The Nationals will probably need 89 to 90 wins to make the playoffs. That means they will need to pick up about 10 more wins in 2012 than they got last season. Getting off to a good start will help. But, to maximize their playoff hopes, the Nats need to be victorious, more often, in one run games.

3. Get Healthy and Stay Healthy

One of the factors that slowed the Nationals last year was injuries. Ryan Zimmerman missed roughly a third of the season; Adam LaRoche missed most of it. Stephen Strasburg was recovering from Tommy John's surgery and did not make an appearance until late in the season.

Zimmerman and LaRoche's extended absences had a definite impact on the offense, which struggled in 2011 to say the least.

2012 has not gotten off to a great start on the injury front. Michael Morse, last season's breakout star, and Rick Ankiel both started the season on the DL. Neither injury was serious and both Morse and Ankiel are expected to return to the lineup very soon.

Closer Drew Storen was also placed on the DL this spring, putting the bullpen into a bit of a state of turmoil, but he too will be returning soon.

Once Morse, Storen, and Ankiel do return to the lineup, it will be essential to keep them, and the rest of the team, as healthy as possible.

This is especially true for Morse, a player the Nats felt so good about that they did not overpay to acquire Prince Fielder in the offseason—even though many in Washington wanted them to do precisely that.

Morse was in the top 10 in the National League in batting average, home runs, and RBIs in 2011. His importance to the team is evident.

As important as Morse is to the offense, Strasburg is even more important to the pitching staff. In contrast to the offense, the Nats pitching in 2011 was pretty good. With Strasburg pitching a full season, the Nats rotation could be one of the best in baseball.

As such, injuries, or more specifically avoiding injuries, will be one of the most important keys to the Nationals getting to the playoffs in 2012.

4. The Offense Must Improve

More so than any other factor listed in this article, if the Nationals are going to make the playoffs the offense must improve—and improve drastically.

I knew the Nats offense was bad last year, but until I started writing this article and using MLB.com's sortable stats page, I did not fully realize how bad they were.

How bad you ask?

Out of 16 teams in the National League, here is where the Nationals ranked in several important categories: 11th in slugging percentage; 12th in runs scored and RBIs; 13th in on base percentage; 14th in batting average; and 15th in hits.

The Nats were not exactly the models of plate discipline either as they led the National League in strikeouts with 1,323.

About the only thing the Nats did pretty well on offense was hitting the long ball as they ranked seventh in home runs.

You can also say they were doing the right things as far as trying to manufacture runs as they ranked eighth in the National League in stolen bases. Obviously, however, that strategy did not work as well as had been hoped, as evidenced by the Nats' low ranking in runs scored.

Clearly, this must change if playoff dreams will turn into reality. And, in my opinion, it has to start with Jason Werth.

The Nationals spent a ton of money to bring Werth to DC, figuring he would immediately transform the offense. In 2011, that was hardly the case.

In 2011, Werth batted .232, which ranked an abysmal 29th amongst National League outfielders. He also struck out 160 times, sixth most in the entire National League. He only had 20 home runs, which was only good enough for third on the Nationals.

By any measure, that is what we call a bad return on investment.

Werth did look better this spring, but he is still hit-less through the first two regular season games. If the Nats offense is going to make a serious move in the right direction, Werth must live up to that contract and start playing like he did in Philadelphia.

Beyond that though, the Nationals offense might improve just from the team being healthier than they were in 2011 (hopefully). Ryan Zimmerman's importance to the team was not really appreciated until he was gone for about a third of the year last season.

If Zimmerman stays healthy, if Werth improves, if the team can cut down on the strikeouts, and if they can improve the numbers in some key categories, such as batting average and on-base percentage, the Nationals offense should improve.

Perhaps not as much as Nationals' fans would like, but enough for the Nationals to challenge for a playoff berth.

5. The Pitching Must Be as Good as Advertised

In direct contrast to the offense, the Nationals pitching was pretty good in 2011. Not spectacular, but pretty good.

For instance the Nats ranked sixth in ERA, better than the world champion Cardinals.

They also ranked fourth in the National League in saves.

Then again, the pitching staff was mediocre in other categories, ranking ninth in hits allowed, 10th in runs allowed, and eighth in WHIP.

So, the Nats went out this offseason and solidified the rotation. They traded four very good prospects to acquire Gio Gonzalez and then were able to acquire Edwin Jackson in a shrewd free-agent move that definitely flew under the radar.

On top of all that they get Stephen Strasburg for the entire season and should be able to count on Jordan Zimmerman having another effective campaign in 2012.

All told, the Nationals now have a starting rotation that can rival just about any of the elite teams in the National League. Or at least that is how they have been advertised.

For the Nationals to make the playoffs though, the pitching staff will have to be as good as advertised, if not better.

Strasburg seems like he will be very strong this year. He pretty much controlled the Cubs on Opening Day and there is no reason to think he will not get even better as the season progresses.

Gonzalez is more of a question mark. In spring training he had the majors fourth best strikeout-per-inning ratio. But, against the Cubs yesterday, he was chased before the fourth inning, having given up seven hits and four runs, all of them earned. He did, however, strikeout six batters in that short outing so there is something there to build on.

We now have to wait to see how Zimmerman and Jackson perform in the next couple of games.

As far as the bullpen is concerned, the Nats took steps to improve there also as they signed Brad Lidge to help Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen. Clippard got the win in the opener against the Cubs, while Lidge got the save. That is a very good start while Storen continues to recover from an injury this past spring.

On paper, the Nationals pitching staff looks to be very strong. And, through the first two games, they look like they could be as good as advertised. If the playoffs are to become a reality, they must continue to do so.

6. Don't Let Bryce Harper Be a Distraction

I am as big a Bryce Harper fan as anyone. I think the 19-year-old phenom has all the talent in the world and he is going to be a star for many years to come.

That does not, however, mean that he should be in the starting lineup—at least not yet.

Many Nationals fans were actually outraged when Harper was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse this spring.

I disagree.

While there were certainly financial and contractual reasons for the move, there really is no reason to thrust Harper into the starting lineup just yet. Allow him to develop his skills and round his game out.

He is, after all, only 19 years old.

He needs to be brought up when the time is right and the Nationals cannot allow themselves to be distracted from the mission at hand by the public outcry to inject Harper into the starting lineup before he is ready.

That is not to say the Nats could not use him. Roger Bernardina is not the greatest center fielder in the world and Harper might very well be a defensive upgrade at that position, in addition to an offensive boost. The Nats could also use some more left-handed bats and Harper fills that role.

Nevertheless, it would be to the Nationals' benefit if, when they do decide to bring up Harper, they are sure he is really ready and can make an immediate contribution to the team.

Could he do that now? Probably.

But, if the Nats are right in the thick of the playoff hunt when Harper is brought up, he might be the boost that the team needs to actually snag a playoff berth and, perhaps, make some noise when the playoffs begin.

When the time is right, when Harper is truly ready to be in the big leagues, I can't think of anyone else I would want to put on the field for that final playoff push.

Can you?