2012 NBA Draft: Updated Player Rankings

Anthony Davis is the best college basketball player in the country. Davis should be the overwhelming favorite to be picked first overall in the upcoming NBA draft. This isn't really big news. Davis has pretty much held this spot since he enrolled at Kentucky.

The rest of the Big Board? Well, there are several big changes.

This is my rough mock draft, without factoring in the draft order. Since the lottery isn't set yet, and we don't have a complete list of the players coming out early either, this is my list of the top 25 college basketball players that might enter the draft.

25: Fab Melo, Syracuse

Fab Melo is 7'0", and he weighs about 260 pounds. He can block shots and he can rebound. If you are picking late in the first round, and Melo is still sitting there, you have to consider him. If he develops any post game at all, he could be in a good team's top-eight rotation.

Best-Case Scenario: Poor Man's Roy Hibbert.

Worst-Case Scenario: Homeless Man's Kelvin Cato.

24: Drew Gordon, New Mexico

Drew Gordon is 6'9", 250 pounds, and he has a legit low-post game. He carried his team to the NCAA Tournament, and in my opinion, he is going to be a guy that starts rising up several teams' draft boards as we get closer to the draft. There is just a lot to like about his game.

Best-Case Scenario: He could be a Nick Collison type of role player.

Worst-Case Scenario: He winds up in the D-League.

23: Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt

Taylor is 6'7", he is strong, versatile and he is a winner. I think he could be a very good pickup for the right team in the mid-to-late first-round part of the draft. Taylor is a "low ceiling, high floor" type of player who could find a niche on the right team.

Best-Case Scenario: He is a Shane Battier type of role player.

Worst-Case Scenario: He is a Luke Walton type of role player.

22: Dion Waiters, Syracuse

Dion Waiters is one heck of a player. I just don't know where he is going to fit into the NBA game. He isn't a true point guard, and at 6'4", he doesn't have prototypical size for a shooting guard.

He is a good, but not great athlete. He is the type of guy that often gets overlooked, but when you watch him play, this guy just makes plays. I could see him being a Vinny Johnson type of guy off the bench.

Best-Case Scenario: Vinny Johnson, instant offense off the bench.

Worst-Case Scenario: He is a man without a position, and he washes out of the league.

21: Terrance Ross, Washington

At 6'6", Ross has the body type you look for in a shooting guard. He can get his own shot whenever he wants to, and it looks like he is still going to improve as a player. For a team picking this late in the draft, Ross might be a steal.

Some people have him rated higher, but I just don't understand why a guy with this much talent (who is playing alongside Tony Wroten, another player on this list) can't lead his team to a better season than Washington did. That scares me.

There is just something about his game that makes me think, "As good as he is, shouldn't he be even better?"

Best-Case Scenario: He could start for half of the teams in the league.

Worst-Case Scenario: He is a "me first" gunner who never pans out.

20: Perry Jones III, Baylor

I would bet my house that PJ3 goes somewhere in the top 10. With his size (6'11") and athletic ability, he could be a fantastic basketball player. He certainly looks like an NBA player.

Having said all of that, Jones was a huge disappointment last season as a freshman. He would have still been a top-five pick in last year's weak draft class, but he chose to come back for his sophomore season.

All Jones did this season was reinforce the thinking that (a) he doesn't always play hard, (b) he doesn't rebound anywhere near his capability and (c) he looks lost and confused at the offensive end of the floor.

I'll give Jones a small break because I think the same thing could be said for another highly touted Baylor player, Quincy Miller. I don't think any team in the country underachieved, or played below their talent level, as much as Baylor did.

Maybe Jones just needs someone to push him? Maybe he is a late bloomer? Or maybe, at this point, Perry Jones III is what he is—a great athlete who just isn't a great basketball player.

Best-Case Scenario: Chris Bosh

Worst-Case Scenario: Michael Olawakandi

19: Moe Harkless, Saint John's

Here is another guy who looks like an NBA player. He has the body (6'8", 210 pounds) that you look for in an NBA small forward. He can get his own shot. He has a chance to be a great defender. In another era, Harkless would return to school and probably be a top-10 pick in a couple of years.

As it is, he will probably come out this year, and he has a chance to be a lottery pick.

Best-Case Scenario: Poor Man's Grant Hill.

Worst-Case Scenario: Just another great athlete who came out early, made some money and then faded into obscurity.

18: Tony Wroten, Washington

It's hard to turn down guaranteed money, but Wroten would be the ideal candidate to go back to school. He is a big point guard (6'5", 210 pounds), and he has excellent vision.

However, Wroten is not rated this high on a lot of draft boards. I don't know why because I think he has the ability to be a starting point guard in the NBA.

If Wroten enters the draft, I think he will be picked before his more highly-rated teammate, Terrance Ross. If Wroten goes back to school, I think he could end up being a top-five pick in another year or two.

Best-Case Scenario: He has some Jason Kidd in him.

Worst-Case Scenario: He never becomes that "pure point guard," and he still winds up in the top eight of somebody's rotation.

17: Andre Drummond, UConn

Andre Drummond is the kind of guy that gets GMs fired. He is potential personified, and at a certain point, like PJ3, potential becomes a bad thing.

Drummond is 6'11", 270 pounds. He has drawn comparisons, rightfully so, to Dwight Howard because of his body type and athleticism. However, Drummond oftentimes looks lost on the floor, and he is clearly a player who still has a lot to learn about the game. 

So if you pass on Drummond and he turns into Howard, you get fired. If you pick Drummond and he turns into Hasheem Thabeet, you get fired. Either way, if you are a GM, and you see Drummond is available with your pick, it has to scare the hell out of you.

Drummond could go as high as second overall. Based on what I saw with my own two eyes, and I saw him play several times, I just can't rate him that highly.

Best-Case Scenario: Poor Man's Dwight Howard.

Worst-Case Scenario: Homeless Man's DeAndre Jordan.

16: John Henson, North Carolina

Sean May, Rashad McCants, Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton...

Remember the last time North Carolina had all these "first-round picks" on the same team? How did it work out for those guys?

When you get a bunch of NBA players on the same team, guys tend to make each other look better than they really are. Ed Davis had a lot of hype coming out of North Carolina as a lanky power forward. So did Brendan Wright.

Having said all that, John Henson scares me to death as an NBA prospect. Who knows where his career is headed? At 6'10", he has the wingspan of a pterodactyl, and I think he will be able to block some shots at the next level. If he gets to where he can score, he might be better than, say, Brendan Wright.

Best-Case Scenario: He could be an Ed Davis "plus."

Worst-Case Scenario: A poor man's version of Brendan Wright.

15: Myers Leonard, Illinois

Leonard Myers is 7'0", 245 pounds, and he has a lot of upside. If you are picking in the middle of the first round, you probably aren't getting a starter.

History shows us that if you can find a starter here, it's a huge plus. So if you pick Leonard, and he only becomes a solid rotation guy, then it wouldn't be a wasted pick. Mobile seven-footers are hard to find.

Best-Case Scenario: Luc Longley

Worst-Case Scenario: Bill Winnington

14: Damian Lillard, Weber State

Damian Lillard is one of the coolest stories in college basketball. He has put himself in the discussion as a lottery pick, not an easy thing to do when you play for Weber State.

Lillard is a good player. However, he isn't an elite athlete, and he is only 6'2". In today's NBA, there is a new breed of bigger, stronger, more athletic point guards running the show. Derrick Rose, John Wall, Deron Williams and Russell Westbrook are the new breed, and Lillard doesn't look like what we are coming to think a point guard should look like.

Having said all that, Kyrie Irving and Chris Paul seem to be getting along just fine, and you would never confuse those two guys with Rose or Westbrook.

Best-Case Scenario: Stephen Curry

Worst-Case Scenario: Lindsey Hunter

13: Tyler Zeller, North Carolina

Tyler Zeller is pretty low on a lot of draft charts. I think this is because when we look at NBA prospects, we have to think of somebody they "look like" before we can imagine somebody they "play like." Heck, I'm even doing that to a certain degree, by giving a "best/worst-case scenario" for each player.

Zeller is a victim of not looking like any NBA center that's very good right now. He has a reliable low-post game, he runs the floor and he makes an effort on defense. He can't jump as high as Perry Jones, and he's not as strong as Andre Drummond, but I think he is a safer pick than either of those guys.

Zeller could be a solid starter, or a valuable rotation guy. Either way, I think he will have a solid, but not spectacular, 10-12-year NBA career.

Best-Case Scenario: Joakim Noah

Worst-Case Scenario: Zaza Pachulia

12: Kendall Marshall, North Carolina

Kendall Marshall is the best passing point guard in college basketball. People say he can't shoot. To that, I say look at Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo, two really good NBA point guards that don't shoot outside a lot.

Marshall also has great size (6'4") for an NBA point guard. He isn't an elite defender, but show me one player from UNC that has been a great defender in the last several seasons.

I just think with his size, his passing ability and his mentality to make the people around him better, that he is going to be a really good point guard in the NBA.

For a team that needs a point guard, if they draft Marshall they'll get a guy who can start right away.

Best-Case Scenario: Mark Jackson

Worst-Case Scenario: Poor man's version of Mark Jackson.

11: Austin Rivers, Duke

Austin Rivers is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Is he a point guard, a two guard or the dreaded "tweener?" At 6'4", Rivers isn't quite big or strong enough to be the prototypical two guard, but he doesn't have blazing quickness or playmaking ability associated with an NBA point guard.

Rivers is a shot-maker, plain and simple.

I think Rivers is going to be a shooting guard in the NBA, and he will eventually find a niche as a solid starter or a super scorer off the bench.

Best-Case Scenario: Monta Ellis

Worst-Case Scenario: Ben Gordon

10: Terrence Jones, Kentucky

Kentucky has three of the top 10 players in the country. So it's no wonder that they are playing for the National Championship on Monday night.

Terrence Jones is basically the same size as Karl Malone (6'9", 250 pounds), but he handles the ball like Lamar Odom. He doesn't have a great outside shot, but the rest of his game is really well-rounded.

He should be able to step in right away and defend, rebound and handle the ball right away. He could be a matchup nightmare for smaller "threes" and bigger, slower "fours."

If Jones maintains a solid work ethic, I think he is one of the true "can't miss" prospects in this draft. With Jones, what you see is what you get, and there is a lot to like about what you see.

Best-Case Scenario: Lamar Odom 2.0

Worst-Case Scenario: Anthony Mason 2.0

9: Jeremy Lamb, UConn

Remember what we were all saying about Jeremy Lamb about this time last year?

Wow, what a player!

My, oh my, how things can change in a year. UConn's team was in disarray all season, with the underachieving Drummond being brought in as a last-minute recruit, Jim Calhoun's health issues and the fact that Lamb played with the most selfish point guard in the country, Shabazz Napier.

But just step back for just a minute and look at Lamb. He is 6'5", long, athletic and he can fill it up. He looks like an impact player at both ends of the floor. I think there is an outside chance Lamb could shoot even higher up some draft boards.

Best-Case Scenario: He is a 10-12-year starter, a solid NBA shooting guard.

Worst-Case Scenario: His freshman year was a fluke, and he washes out of the league.

8: Arnette Moultrie, Mississippi State

Full disclosure: I've seen this guy play less than anybody else on my list.

Having said that, in my limited sample size, I coudn't help be be impressed with Moultrie. At 6'11", 230 pounds, he is a terrific athlete. Moultrie is a great example of a guy whose reputation was earned by his game, not the way he looks (we're looking at you, PJ3).

Best-Case Scenario: He is LaMarcus Aldridge, give or take.

Worst-Case Scenario: He is a solid rotation guy.

7: Thomas Robinson, Kansas

Thomas Robinson is in the top five of almost every other draft board you'll read. I love his game, but I have other players rated slightly ahead of Robinson for one reason and one reason alone.

I'm not sure if at his size (6'8", 240 pounds) he can dominate the low post in the NBA. I think he will be a solid player, and he has "high floor, low ceiling" potential.

I go back and forth between Robinson and Jared Sullinger of Ohio State. I just think if you are going to go up against Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh, Kevin Garnett, etc., Robinson could struggle against elite athletes who are bigger than he is.

Best-Case Scenario: A poor man's Karl Malone.

Worst-Case Scenario: A rich man's Udonis Haslem.

6: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

For right now, I'm putting Sullinger above Robinson. Sullinger is just a little bit bigger (6'9", 280 pounds), and he is incredibly strong. I think he is going to struggle over size/length in the NBA, and I think he could struggle to rebound at the level of other starting power forwards.

I see more "bust potential" with Sullinger, simply because he has the body type that might allow him to gain 50 pounds.

However, I think Sullinger is the safer pick between the two power forwards, and for that reason, I am ranking him above Robinson. At least I am for now. Check back with me tomorrow.

Best-Case Scenario: He works on his body, and he has some Karl Malone in him.

Worst-Case Scenario: He doesn't work on his body, and he has some Sean May in him.

5: Royce White, Iowa State

Royce White is a tremendous talent. At 6'8", 250 pounds, he can play either forward spot. However, unlike most "tweener" forwards who are basically guys "without a position," White can dominate from either position.

I think White can be a dominant "point forward" type of player, and if he ends up playing for the right coach, he should be a matchup nightmare.

I don't care about his fear of flying or whatever it is. White can flat-out play, and that is the only thing I'm evaluating with this list.

Best-Case Scenario: A poor man's LeBron James—a big, strong point forward.

Worst-Case Scenario: He can't get over his social problems and he washes out of the league.

4: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

My brother Toby loves Harrison Barnes and thinks he will be the first pick in the draft. I personally think Barnes is half a step too slow to be a great NBA player. I think he's a great shooter that will have a long NBA career, but he lacks that elite athleticism to match up to the elite small forwards in the NBA (LeBron James, Kevin Durant).

I think he is going to be a good player, but I'm not as excited about him as some people are. I'm looking at you, Toby.

Best-Case Scenario: He is a Glen Rice type player, a scorer and a good player.

Worst-Case Scenario: He is a scorer-deluxe off the bench, a valuable rotation player.

3: Bradley Beal, Florida

Bradley Beal is going to be a starter in the NBA. He is just a bit undersized (6'4") for the shooting guard position, but Beal has a pure stroke and is a terrific athlete. He competes hard, and he routinely gets his own shot against bigger players. Because of his athletic ability and his competitive drive, I think Beal will be able to handle bigger shooting guards in the NBA.

Best-Case Scenario: He could be a Ray Allen/Rip Hamilton hybrid.

Worst-Case Scenario: A poor man's Joe Dumars, an undersized two who is a borderline All-Star.

2: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky

MKG is the rare prospect who was highly, highly rated as a young player in high school, then dropped down the rankings list just a bit, only to arrive in college and actually exceed expectations.

Simply put, this kid plays hard, and he has a terrific all-around game. You could talk about his flaws (not a great perimeter shooter), but MKG is a winner and he will be an immediate starter for whoever picks him near the top of the first round.

Best-Case Scenario: He has some Scottie Pippen in him.

Worst-Case Scenario: He is a Shane Battier plus, a terrific role player.

1: Anthony Davis, Kentucky

Anthony Davis is the best player in the draft, he'll go No. 1, and it's not even close! I don't care what my brother Toby says, this guy is going to be a great NBA player.

Best-Case Scenario: He is a Garnett or Duncan type, a Hall of Famer.

Worst-Case Scenario: Danny Manning, who would've been great if he didn't get hurt.