Carl Crawford: Should He Hit Leadoff for the Boston Red Sox?

Something’s got to give for Carl Crawford.

Though the somewhat maligned left fielder will not break camp with the Boston Red Sox on Opening Day, he seems poised to strike a forgettable 2011 campaign from the hearts and minds of the Fenway faithful, putting in serious work while arriving early and staying late each day at JetBlue Park.

Despite reported inflammation in his left wrist, he’s doing all that he can to right the ship. But can something be done to push him along?

As I mentally debated this question over the long offseason, not content with the “he’s-too-good-not-to-snap-out-of-it” theory of player comebacks, a simple notion popped into my head:

Should Bobby Valentine pencil Crawford into the leadoff spot? Would that provide enough of a jolt to the 30-year-old Houston native to snap him back to form?

There were several things to consider when weighing this idea, not the least of which is the status of Jacoby Ellsbury. But I’ll get to him in a minute.

First things first: how well has Crawford performed in various lineup spots over the course of his 10-year major league tenure? Here's a quick look at the positions he's spent the most time in, with slash-lines for both his career and 2011:

Lineup Position	At-Bats	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
First	1622	.284	.319	.415	.734
Second	2477	.303	.346	.469	.806
Third	803	.291	.336	.448	.784
Seventh	134	.299	.351	.522	.874
2011	506	.255	.289	.405	.694
Career	5498	.293	.333	.441	.773

It goes without saying that in 2011, his numbers fell off the map.

But, barring those, he generally sticks close to his career averages on the whole—the exception coming when Crawford bats second. He shows improvement over his career numbers in nearly every category in that slot.

But there are a few caveats to this. First, just 43 of those at-bats came in 2011, a season which clearly weighs down his averages in other slots (though not first or third). Second, as Crawford developed, he batted the No. 2 slot in the lineup, a place he naturally fit in Tampa. With Dustin Pedroia entrenched there in Boston, he won't see too many opportunities there again—most likely for the rest of his career.

So, why leadoff you ask? Yes, Jacoby Ellsbury just had one of greatest offensive seasons from that position in the history of the game. Anyone not named Rickey Henderson would trade any year of their career for Ellsbury's 2011 and skip all the way to the bank. So the idea of moving him for any reason seems silly.

But conventional wisdom states that a team's best hitter generally hits third (which was probably Ellsbury over the course of the entire year, despite Adrian Gonzalez's slightly superior numbers). That and Crawford might benefit from a more familiar place than the bottom third of the order in which he spent the most time hitting in Terry Francona's lineup.

The problem is this: his numbers just don't vary that much from position to position to warrant a move.

Furthermore, evidence uncovered by Baseball Prospectus in their book Baseball Between the Numbers suggests that the traditional lineup is close enough to optimal not to warrant tinkering with over the course of a 162 game season (i.e. best pure hitter third, power-hitter fourth, etc). But as James Click writes in the "Was Billy Martin Crazy" section of the book:

"

Given any group of nine hitters, the batting order that scores the most runs is the one ranked in order of descending OBP. Give the hitters who make the fewest outs the most chances to bat, and you'll score more runs.

"

By that logic, Adrian Gonzalez and his goatee-backed .410 on-base percentage should be the first thing pitchers see each and every night.

Now, no one's arguing that. But considering Ellsbury's .376 mark from a year ago, there's no reason to move him at all. In fact, there's no reason to shake up the Ellsbury-Pedroia-Gonzalez-Ortiz quartet that was so successful in 2011 in any way either.

If Carl Crawford turns into the luxury car that everyone thought John Henry and Co. were buying last offseason, then the Sox will benefit from just that: a luxury.

Coincidentally, there are now reports that Bobby V. is considering newly minted starter Mike Aviles for the leadoff spot.

Please Bobby, don't hurt 'em.

In the end, Crawford hitting sixth is just fine with me. He'll just have to find some other way to snap himself out of his 2011 malaise. Ellsbury should be there to stay for the foreseeable future.

Now if you'll excuse me I have to begin work on my next argument: Why Mike Aviles should never see the top-third of a major league lineup.

Jason is a Boston lifer, stat geek, and general baseball nerd. He can be reached at [e-mail]. Follow him on Twitter at @jaydunontherun.