Redskins' Weigh-In: Is Robert Griffin III the Wiser Move over Peyton Manning?

Now that the mothership has landed in Denver and everyone can rest easy knowing that Peyton Manning’s new deal is in place, it seems necessary to weigh the pros and cons of what Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins missed out on. That is, of course, if they missed out on anything at all.

It’s unlikely that anyone will really know what happened between Manning and the Redskins. For every reason why Manning should have came to Washington (strong defense, quarterback coach), there was an even better reason of why he shouldn’t (playing in the NFC, facing his brother twice a year). Debating who didn’t want to do what is irrelevant at this point. Hell, for all we know, the two parties may have never even spoke.

However, for the sake of argument, let’s assume Shanahan and the Redskins never had serious interest in signing Peyton Manning in the first place. Instead, assume that trading up to the No. 2 pick with the intentions of drafting Robert Griffin III was the Redskins’ desired first act of business. And now that both deals are done, does anything change your mind about which is the wiser move?

Cost

Whether you’re acquiring quarterbacks or televisions, the cost of an object plays a huge part in the decision to make a move on it. The same can be said for considering Peyton Manning or Robert Griffin III as the next quarterback of the Washington Redskins. Although a comparison to one of the GOATs is a pointless argument for a guy that has yet to take the field, Griffin was obviously the less expensive option. The hope–of course–is that Griffin III turns out to be the "Samsung" rather than the
"Magnavox."

The Redskins gave up multiple draft picks for the No. 2 pick, and although those picks don’t come with a monetary value, many are critical in labeling it too steep of a price. But given Manning’s new deal, is the trade considered more expensive?

2012 first-rounder, 2012 second-rounder, 2013 first-rounder and 2014 first-rounder

VS.

$96 million over five years

Opinions regarding which one is more expensive are debatable. While some will argue that future first-round picks are completely unknown, others could argue that Manning likely won’t play all five years of his deal. And while some will argue that future first-rounders could potentially be late first-rounders, others will bring into account the breakdown of Manning’s yearly salary and his physical requirements.

But at the end of the day—given the unknown and non-guarantees—Peyton Manning is the more expensive of the two.

Immediate Contribution

It’s hard to argue that Manning wouldn’t be the better performer right out of the gate. Assuming his neck is healed and he can withstand a typical quarterback hit, Peyton Manning is likely the more valuable contributor in the short-term. That said, I don’t think anyone would mind watching a Cam Newton-like season from Robert Griffin III, serving as a drastic upgrade from what Redskins fans saw last season.

Longevity

Whether people want to believe it or not, Manning is nothing but a stop-gap. At 36 years old, Manning likely tops out at 39, right?

For a team such as the Redskins that are building for the future and currently under the direction of a coach that believes in a youth movement of sorts, Griffin III is the man for the job.

Manning in Washington would be exciting, but only temporarily. With Griffin III in town, the fan base can be excited now and look forward to the next decade with the hopeful progression and dominance of their quarterback.

Return on Investment

In somewhat of a piggyback on longevity, the Redskins naturally get a larger return on their investment from a guy like Griffin III that is expected to play more than double the amount of time that Manning does.

This all changes of course if Griffin III never finds success with the Redskins. In such an unfortunate case, fans will make it a consistent point to bring up what could have been had Peyton Manning came to town. “I swear, without that damn Griffin III kid, Peyton would’ve brought us the damn Super Bowl!”

After technically "investing" more in Griffin III than they would have done monetarily with Manning, the Redskins’ return on investment will be much greater with Griffin III. Assuming he’s the real deal.

Risk

Draft picks in general are a risk. Trade-up to land a more coveted and hyped college phenom and they become all that more dangerous. Reason being, a team is mortgaging their future on the unknown—on a young man that has yet to ever take an NFL snap. If things don’t work out, the losses are felt exponentially. Suddenly you’re looking at a recovery time of at least three years.

On the other hand—albeit slightly different—there’s plenty of risk that comes with Peyton Manning. Although his failings could still set the franchise back a number of years, no one would expect that to be a result of poor play or absence of the “it” factor. The largest risk with Manning is his health. Can he play a whole season? Can he withstand hits? How do his multiple neck surgeries effect his throwing motion? His comfort and security in the pocket?

Now that Manning has actually signed a deal, it’s safe to say that he’s in good enough health to throw the ball and at least let coaches know that he can do everything necessary to kill it in practice. But things can change when it’s game time. Things do change when 300-pound linemen hit you in the mouth.

When it comes to risk–and keeping in my mind how important draft picks are–Manning is the safer of the two simply because he’s worth nothing more than money. For Griffin III, he’s worth less cash (in terms of his deal) but valued in a plethora of very valuable draft selections.

If Manning is paid and it doesn’t work out, the franchise takes a hit and they lose a lot of cash. But if Griffin III doesn’t work out, the franchise takes a hit (both internally and externally) and they lose a number of the valuable draft selections that would ultimately help them crawl out of the hole they put themselves in.

Marketing

No one can argue against the buzz created by one of the best quarterbacks coming to play in the nation’s capital. However, Robert Griffin III has the charisma and style to not only generate the initial hype, but remain prominent for the next ten years.

Sure, there would be a lot of jersey sales for Peyton Manning in burgundy and gold, but that that doesn’t mean that RG3 knits will stay on shelves very long either. Because it’s been so long since the Redskins and their fan base have had the real ammo to get excited, Griffin III is going to hit Washington like a wave. Jerseys, talk shows, commercials, shoes, etc.—the works.

And just as sort of a side note, how great would it be for the Redskins to have a quarterback that’s one of their own? To have a quarterback that was drafted here, developed here and dominant here? For fans, that’s something we’ve been missing for more than forever.

From the time that he blows up as a rookie, to when he’s a crafty veteran in his thirties, Robert Griffin III will be a true member of the burgundy and gold. I can’t speak for everyone, but that feels good to me.

RG3 > Manning

Setting aside the argument of whether Griffin III will eventually be better than Manning, the wiser move right now for this particular franchise was to trade up and draft Griffin III.

In terms of immediate production and legacy, Peyton Manning would be great in Washington. But for anyone to believe that this current Redskins franchise is Super Bowl-ready is sadly mistaken. The 2012 Washington Redskins are not a quarterback away from the Lombardi Trophy.

With Griffin III, the positive description of longevity and cost allow him to pull away in a race of wiser business decisions. Taking into account where the Redskins are currently positioned as a franchise, Robert Griffin III is simply the quarterback that makes the most sense.

The risk involved with any big-name acquisition—whether it be college or pro—is inevitable for a franchise. For all we know, Robert Griffin III could flop just as easily as Peyton Manning could rupture his C6/C7 cervical spine fusion. But when a team or a business understands that it needs to make a move, risk is weighed and decisions are made based off analysis and typically a positive outlook. In the case of the Washington Redskins, the right choice was Robert Griffin III.