2012 NFL Mock Draft: Targeting Instant Stars and Likely Rookies of the Year

We're just about one month away from the 2012 NFL draft. Do you know which prospects are going to be studs at the next level?

Of course you don't. Not unless you have some sort of crystal ball, anyway, and I find the odds of you having a working one to be unlikely.

When it comes to which NFL draft prospects will actually pan out as pros, all we can do is guess. It's even harder to guess which ones are going to be stars right away.

For what it's worth, I have a few guesses. Ahead of you is a full first-round mock draft, one that pays special attention to incoming rookies who are going to be difference-makers right away.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

With Peyton Manning out, it's all but a certainty that the Colts will be taking Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

Things are not going to be easy for Luck. With the exception of Reggie Wayne, virtually all the remnants of the Colts' recent dynasty are gone now. That will leave Luck to find his way with plenty of teammates who will be just as new to the Colts as him.

But I like Luck's chances. Remember, he played with less-than-elite talent at Stanford and he had one of the greatest two-year runs of any quarterback in the history of college football.

All that matters is that his skill is elite. He's the kind of quarterback who can make everyone around him better, not unlike Manning.

So I'm of the mind that Luck will take to the NFL like a duck to water. When all is said and done, he'll be in the Rookie of the Year discussion.

2. Washington Redskins (5-11, after trade with St. Louis): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor*

If the Redskins draft Robert Griffin III, his situation won't be much better than Luck's. The Colts don't have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and the Redskins have plenty of their own issues on offense.

What we do know is that Mike Shanahan is the perfect guy for RG3 to end up with. He's coached mobile quarterbacks before, and RG3 will merely be the next guy in line.

The key difference is that RG3 is more mobile than nearly all the quarterbacks who are already in the NFL. He would open up a lot of opportunities for Washington's offense, and he has the kind of athleticism that can turn a busted play into a big play, not unlike Cam Newton.

I reserve the right to change my mind many months from now, but today RG3 is my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He won't put up Newton-like numbers playing in Washington's offense, but I think it would be fair to expect roughly 3,000 yards passing with an additional 600 or so rushing yards on top of that.

In addition, he'll stabilize Washington's quarterback situation, ultimately leading them to the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

If he does all that, RG3 will be a lock for OROY.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

This is the most obvious pick in the draft, and I think Matt Kalil is going to be just fine in the pros. He won't be a star, though, because...well, because offensive linemen have a hard time establishing star power. No disrespect. That's just how it is.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

With Peyton Hillis gone to Kansas City, the Browns officially have an opening at running back.

That may as well be an open invitation to Trent Richardson, who many think is the best running back prospect to come along in years.

Richardson could start right away on the Browns, and he has the talent to make a difference immediately. Take a look around the NFL; you won't find many established stars with the combination of power and speed that Richardson brings to the table. He's also a smart runner, which only makes him more dangerous.

If the Browns draft Richardson, the bar will be set at 1,000 yards rushing. He won't win the Rookie of the Year, but he'll be in the discussion. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The Buccaneers signed Eric Wright, but I don't view that as an excuse for them to pass on Morris Claiborne, one of the best cover corners to come out of college in years. The Bucs will be glad they drafted him in the long run.

6. St. Louis Rams (2-14, after trade with Washington): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

I was expecting the Rams to go after a wide receiver in free agency, but it looks like they're not going to do that. That doesn't mean they're a lock to take Justin Blackmon, but I like the odds of them taking Blackmon more than I did before free agency. The Rams offense would still be a little too shaky for me to expect Blackmon to be an instant hit.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

The signing of Laurent Robinson gives the Jags a much-needed wide receiver. Now all they need is a defensive end who can rush the passer. Quinton Coples has the tools to be an elite pass-rusher, so the Jags would be fools to pass on him here. He has a lot to learn, though, so I'm not anticipating instant success from him.

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The trade of Brandon Marshall to the Bears leaves the Dolphins without a No. 1 wide receiver. They have other needs, but they created one that will force them to draft Michael Floyd eighth overall. That's higher than he deserves to go, but the Dolphins really won't be able to afford to pass on him. I'll need to know who their quarterback is going to be before I can assume Floyd will be an instant hit.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

The Panthers drafted a pair of redshirt (the Star Trek variety) defensive tackles in last year's draft. This year, they should draft redshirt sophomore Michael Brockers, who projects as an elite DT at the next level. He's a little too raw to make an immediate impact, however.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

I've typically been assigning the Bills a pass-rusher in my mocks, but they don't need one now that they've signed Mario Williams. The next biggest need on their offseason checklist is offensive line help, so passing on the draft's second-best tackle in Riley Reiff would not be a good idea on Buffalo's part.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

The Chiefs have the secondary to counter the new quarterback in Denver, but they could use a little more oomph in their front seven. Dontari Poe is a guy who can deliver a lot of oomph. He'd open up a lot of lanes for Tamba Hali, resulting in a lot of bad days for AFC West quarterbacks.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

The Seahawks released Robert Gallery, so they're heading towards the draft with a glaring hole at guard. I consider that hole to be reserved for David DeCastro.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina

The Cardinals could have parted ways with Levi Brown and chosen to target an offensive tackle in the draft, but they decided to bring him back.

Whatever. The good news is that the Cardinals now have an excuse to upgrade their front seven by adding a dynamic outside linebacker.

Melvin Ingram's the guy for the job. He emerged as a true game-changing threat at South Carolina, along the way proving that there are few things he can't do out on a football field. 

Ingram could step right into a starring role with the Cardinals, and I'm of the mind that he has enough athleticism and football smarts to make an impact right away. He'll be in the Defensive ROY discussion if the Cardinals draft him. 

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

The Cowboys have signed Brandon Carr, but their secondary could use one more body before they can feel secure. Janoris Jenkins will be the best cornerback available at No. 14, and the Cowboys won't be scared off by his character concerns.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College*

You won't find a more perfect fit than the Eagles and Luke Kuechly.

Inside linebacker was by far Philly's biggest defensive weakness in 2011. The Eagles didn't have anybody to clean up after their defensive line, and that led opponents to keep pounding away at them with the run.

Kuechly would help solve this problem. He was a tackling machine at Boston College and he proved at the combine that he's way more athletic than he was getting credit for. He's just the kind of guy the Eagles need standing behind their D-line.

If Kuechly actually cleans up Philly's linebacker woes from 2011, he'll be a hero in Philadelphia, and you can rest assured the country would take notice. The Eagles are one of the most hyped teams in the NFL, so whoever steps in and saves their defense will be subject to just as much hype.

Because I think Kuechly can do it, he's my early pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Nick Perry, OLB, USC

The Jets have the foundations of a solid defense, but it became apparent last season that they could use an outside linebacker. Nick Perry has the highest ceiling and will be available here. He'd need some time to learn the position, however, so instant success would not be guaranteed.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from 8-8 Oakland Raiders): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

The Bengals' up-and-coming defense needs a young corner to play opposite Leon Hall. Stephon Gilmore's stock is on the rise, and he has the skill set to fit right into Cincinnati's defense.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

It's looking like Luis Castillo is a goner, so the Chargers are going to need to fill the hole left by him along their defensive line. Fletcher Cox would be the best option at this juncture. The Chargers could also target a wide receiver to replace Vincent Jackson, but nobody would stand out as a great fit.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

If the Bears actually manage to land Jonathan Martin, they'll be dancing in the streets of Chicago. He'd be a steal at this point, and a welcome sight for a Bears team that needs as much O-line help as it can get.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

With Cortland Finnegan taking his talents to St. Louis, the Titans have a hole at cornerback. Dre Kirkpatrick's stock is not as high as it once was, but he'd be an easy pick for the Titans here.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

The Bengals need a No. 1 running back, and the best on the board at this juncture will be Lamar Miller. He's got speed to burn and is dangerous in space. He'd bring a game-breaking flavor to Cincinnati's offense. It's hard to imagine him running too wild knowing he'll have to face the Steelers and Ravens twice each in his first season.

22. Cleveland Browns (from 10-6 Atlanta Falcons): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

I'm very much on the fence about Colt McCoy, but the dude could definitely use more weapons around him on offense. Trent Richardson would be a great get in that regard, and so would Kendall Wright. The Browns have a good young wide receiver in Greg Little, but he doesn't have Wright's home run prowess.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

The Lions have bigger needs, but drafting Peter Konz to be their center of the future would be a wise move here. If they don't go for him, they could go for another lineman or secondary help. Their options will be wide open.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia

Cordy Glenn would be a godsend for the Steelers. He could play anywhere on their offensive line, a unit that sorely needs a player who can play anywhere. Ben Roethlisberger would be glad to have him.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Broncos got by with weak defensive tackles all season in 2011. They can't afford to attempt that again, so they'd be wise to draft Devon Still if he's still on the board at this point. They could also go for a corner, but only if they identify a guy they think is a sleeper.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

The Texans need a speedy wide receiver who can take pressure off of Andre Johnson. Stephen Hill was one of the speediest wide receivers at the combine. Check and mate.

27. New England Patriots (from 13-3 New Orleans Saints): Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma

No team needs secondary help more than the Patriots. They should take the best cornerback on the board when they're on the clock later in the draft; that will be Jamell Fleming at No. 27.

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Clay Matthews is outstanding, but the rest of Green Bay's linebacker corps leaves a lot to be desired. Matthews could use a partner in crime, and Courtney Upshaw is a guy who would fit in well next to him. 

Now that would be a scary pairing. Matthews is dangerous enough on his own. If the Packers get another pass-rusher to place alongside of him, quarterbacks will not looking forward to facing the Packers.

What's worse, opposing QBs would have no idea what to expect seeing as how Dom Capers would be the man pushing Matthews and Upshaw's buttons. He's a crafty one.

A Matthews-Upshaw tandem would mean a return to his form of 2010 for Matthews, and a door to stardom for Upshaw. By the end of the season, he would be in the DROY discussion.

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

The Ravens need offensive line depth, and Mike Adams would be a great value pick here. If the Ravens can get him, they should.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin

The 49ers have been very active in free agency, patching up various holes (especially at wide receiver), but one transaction that went under the radar was the departure of guard Adam Snyder. He'll have to be replaced. Kevin Zeitler is at best a borderline first-rounder, but the 49ers are a team that can afford to reach for him.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Vinny Curry, OLB, Marshall

The Patriots could go for another secondary player here, but their front seven could use a pass-rusher. Vinny Curry is a guy who has the kind of athleticism fit for pass-rushing duties in the NFL.

32. New York Giants (9-7): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

The Giants have an outstanding defensive line. But just like the Eagles, they could use a linebacker who could clean up after it. Dont'a Hightower is a near steal at this juncture.