Seattle Mariners Rotation: Predicting Who Will Be Behind Felix Hernandez

The Seattle Mariners have a surplus of pitching. How that exactly fits into their rotation for the start of 2012 is still a bit of a mystery. Felix Hernandez will surely be their ace, but beyond him and Jason Vargas, there are multiple guys looking to fill three spots, including Hisashi Iwakuma, Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan, Charlie Furbush and Erasmo Ramirez. Top prospects Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton will have to wait after being sent down to the minors camp earlier. 

Seattle Mariners No. 1 Starter: Felix Hernandez

This won't surprise anyone, but Felix Hernandez will be the Mariners No. 1 starter. After winning the Cy Young a year ago, King Felix regressed a little bit. but not enough that Mariners fans should be alarmed. Yes, Hernandez's ERA was up by more than a full run, but his FIP only went up by 0.09 and his xFIP was only up by 0.01. SIERA says that Hernandez was only worse by 0.02 runs between the two years.

Moral of the story? King Felix had a little bit of good luck in 2010 and a little bit of bad luck in 2011. He's still King.

Seattle Mariners No. 2 Starter: Jason Vargas

This one also shouldn't be a surprise. Jason Vargas has been announced by the club to be the starter for the second game in Japan. While his numbers and pitching itself may not be all that flashy, Vargas has been worth an average of 2.5 fWAR over the past two seasons, and he is a great asset for the team to have. Beyond Felix Hernandez, he's the only guy besides Kevin Millwood who has more than a handful of starts in the Major Leagues.

Jason Vargas isn't a traditional second pitcher, but who cares? Count on an ERA around 4.00 from Vargas with another 2.5 fWAR, which is plenty enough for the nod. 

Seattle Mariners No. 3 Starter: Hisashi Iwakuma

This is where it starts to get tricky. I've given Hisashi Iwakuma the nod because of his excellence in Japan. He won't earn much unless he pitches well, and judging by the fact that the transition from Japan to the major leagues rarely works, it isn't safe to say that Iwakuma will be able to handle it.

His spring hasn't helped his case at all, but with how good he was in Japan and how relatively cheap he is, Eric Wedge and the Mariners will give him the benefit of the doubt. If he stinks, he won't cost them anything, and there are plenty of guys to replace him should he fail to impress.

Seattle Mariners No. 4 Starter: Hector Noesi

Hector Noesi is an obvious choice for the rotation. He already wet his feet last year in New York, although it was mostly out of the bullpen. This year, he has came to camp with an increased velocity to go along with the pinpoint command he displayed all throughout his Minor League career. Should he be able to command the ball and keep his velocity around 93-94, Yankee fans will rue the day that Cashman sent him as an afterthought with Jesus Montero.

Seattle Mariners No. 5 Starter: Blake Beavan

The Mariners are trying to win, right? They're trying to build something for the future, right?

Blake Beavan makes the most sense. He was already successful down the stretch last year, holding his ERA under 4.00 until his last start of the season made it jump over. He was a highly regarded prospect in the Cliff Lee deal, and he's ready.

Why keep him in the minors? The Seattle Mariners need to see what they have in Beavan before the arrival of Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, Erasmo Ramirez and James Paxton. If he's good, then that's no problem. If he isn't, then they won't have to worry about it. 

Reasons the others missed the cut

• Charlie Furbush showed no control and lower velocity out of the rotation and would be better suited for a bullpen role.
• Erasmo Ramirez, although polished and ready for a role, is simply the odd man out. One of Iwakuma, Noesi or Beavan could easily falter, and anybody could get injured (knock on wood). He'll be up at some point this year—just not yet.
• Kevin Millwood brings a veteran presence...but nothing else. What Millwood can offer is probably identical to what Beavan or Ramirez would bring, but they are the future; Millwood isn't. Veteran presence is overrated, although Eric Wedge will give him a good, hard look, because he thinks otherwise.

Seattle Mariners Rotation: Conclusions

They can't all make the team. Furbush probably will in the bullpen—which is good, having a long-relief lefty is good—but not everybody can. This isn't surely their rotation, as the Mariners could easily go a million different ways, especially with Millwood as their No. 5, but the others should be locks.

Erasmo Ramirez, as a Mariners Blog recently pointed out, is basically ready to compete at the major league level. However, there isn't a spot for him, and an arm like his shouldn't be wasted in the bullpen. He's got a lively fastball and amazing control, projecting as a decent No. 3 starter or a really good No. 4 starter. Let him reach that potential -- don't cut him short.

Agree or disagree, feel free to let us know what you think the Mariners rotation will have for 2012.