Michael Pineda Velocity Dip: Should the New York Yankees Start to Panic?

They've been here before.

The 2011 New York Yankees' spring began with a young star pitcher—slated to be in the rotation—who showed up to camp overweight and without a celebrated fastball.  Ultimately, that pitcher—Phil Hughes—spent the season on and off the D.L. and lost his spot among the starting five.

The 2012 Yankees' spring has begun with young star pitcher Michael Pineda showing up overweight (10-plus pounds, according to reports) and without his celebrated fastball. 

How 2012 plays out has yet to be determined, but should the Yankees panic?  Has the star of the trade that saw New York's prized prospect Jesus Montero shipped to Seattle already fizzled?

The answer, of course, is a resounding "no".

No matter how similar in appearance the two situations are, a closer look reveals that they are very different.

In 2011, Hughes was 25 years old and already had 49 starts under his belt.  He had established himself in the organization as a rising star and had pitched at the major league level—off and on—for four years.  The Yankees already knew what to expect from him and flags were raised when he failed to hit the normal 93-95 mph with his fastball.

Pineda comes to the Yankees in 2012 with one major league year behind him, and he is all of 23 years old.  He had 28 starts for the Seattle Mariners in 2011, and even though he statistically had a wonderful year as a rookie (171 innings, 3.74 ERA), he seemed to tire towards the end of the season. 

While the Yankees certainly have done their homework on Pineda, they don't have the historical compilation of data that they had with Hughes.

To this point, manager Joe Girardi is not concerned with Pineda's lack of "normal" velocity.  General manager Brian Cashman went so far as to reference a Fangraphs article in explaining why he isn't worried.  It would appear that the Yankees are reserving judgement before diving into panic-mode.

Pineda, for his part, has not been worried about his velocity.  He has been working on perfecting his change-up, and while slightly curious about the speed of his fastball, he has been encouraged with his recent starts, saying "It’s good. I feel good.  My velocity is coming right now.".

For now, the Yankees—including Pineda—all seem to be saying the right things.  The inability to consistently throw the mid-90s fastball that in the past has been his primary weapon is not a reason to panic this early in the spring season.

Should the issue continue as we get nearer to the start of the season, the Yankees are well aware of the questions they will have to answer.  Without hesitation, they'll know what to say and do.

After all, they've been here before.