New York Yankees: 5 Bold Predictions for Phil Hughes in 2012

Phil Hughes's first start of the spring came Tuesday against the Pirates and much attention was paid to the outing.

Although slated to pitch two innings, Hughes reached his pitch count after just 1 1/3 innings. He allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits. He recorded one strikeout and did not walk a batter.

When looking at the box score after Tuesday's game, many would assume that the Yankees would not have been pleased with his outing. After all, allowing one earned run and four hits in less than two innings is far from spectacular.

The Yankees were pleased, though. Why?

Hughes was consistently hitting 93 MPH on the radar gun, a drastic improvement from the 88-91 that he sat at last season.

Hughes was shelved for a majority of the 2011 season because of dead arm and he will need to prove to the Yankees that he is completely recovered before awarding him the fifth starter's job over Freddy Garcia.

If Tuesday's live arm is any indication of the rest of the spring, then we could realistically see Hughes hitting 95 MPH by the final days of March.

If that happens, the Yankees will have no choice but to put him in the rotation.

With the return of his live arm, expect good things from Hughes in 2012. Here are my bold predictions for his upcoming season.

All-Star

Phil Hughes will be an All-Star in 2012.

Even with the uncertainty surrounding his role with the team so far this spring, Hughes will win the fifth starter's job and produce at a level that not many expected.

By the time the All-Star Game at Kauffman Stadium rolls around (Tuesday, July 9th), Hughes will have put together a very solid first half.

In 2010, the season Hughes won 18 games, he was 11-2 at the All-Star break with a 3.65 ERA.

This season, Hughes record will be 9-3 at the break, but his ERA will be a much lower 3.15. He'll also have a WHIP under 1.20 and one complete game under his belt at that point in the season.

He most certainly won't be the starting pitcher for the American League at the All-Star game and he definitely won't be one of the first pitchers called out of the bullpen. In the fifth or sixth inning, though, Hughes could get the call.

16-Game Winner

There's still hope that Hughes can consistently be the 18-game winner that he was in 2010.

Well, he won't be an 18-game winner this season. Instead he'll be a 16-game winner, putting together an all-around better season than he did in 2010.

After a 9-3 first half, Hughes will go 7-4 the rest of the way. He'll toss one more complete game and he'll eclipse 160 strikeouts.

As a 16-game winner, Hughes will have earned his spot in the 2013 rotation. It will be enough to bump him up to the No. 4 spot in the rotation behind CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda.

If a big-name free agent starter is signed, though, Hughes would quickly become the best No. 5 in the Majors. 

Sub-3.50 ERA

In Hughes' breakout 2010 season, he recorded a 4.19 ERA.

This was in large part due to the fact that he struggled a bit in the second half of the year, going 7-6 with a 4.90 ERA.

To keep his ERA under 3.50 in 2012 (given his projected 3.15 first half ERA), Hughes will have to pitch to a 3.84 ERA or better in the second half.

He won't struggle nearly as much in the second half as he did in 2010, as I predict a 3.65 ERA from him after the All-Star break.

That would put his ERA at 3.40, good enough to put him in the top-30 in the Majors.

With a 16-7 record and a 3.40 ERA, Hughes will have put together a better overall season in 2012 than he did in 2010. 

180+ Innings Pitched

Hughes will prove that his dead arm is a thing of the past in 2012, pitching in at least 180 innings as the Yankees fifth starter.

We may not see him throwing 95 MPH consistently as the season wears on, but we will definitely see him sitting in the 91-93 range.

In 2010, Hughes pitched in a career high 176.1 innings. This career-high in innings pitched was one of the main excuses made when his dead arm became an issue.

Now that he has worked through the dead arm and has that many single season innings under his belt, Hughes will be ready for the long haul in 2012.

It's unlikely that he'll throw in 200 regular season innings (he could eclipse that with a deep playoff run by the Yankees), but he will throw at least 180 in his 32 regular season starts.

AL Comeback Player of the Year

With the season that Hughes will put together in 2012, it would be hard to find a more deserving candidate for the American League Comeback Player of the Year honors.

With a 16-7 record, a 3.40 ERA and over 180 innings pitched, somebody would have to put up an MVP-caliber season to take the award away from Hughes.

The last time an American League pitcher took home the award was in 2010, when Francisco Liriano put together a solid bounce-back year.

In 2009, Liriano went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 136.2 innings.

In 2010, when he won the award, he posted a 14-10 record with a 3.62 ERA in 191.2 innings of work.

Hughes's bounce-back season in 2012 will be even better than Liriano's bounce-back season.

He'll be the obvious choice for AL Comeback Player of the Year.