Washington Nationals Rotation Overhaul: Predictions for the 2012 Starters

There's no doubt about it, the Nationals will be a fun team to watch this summer. After drafting arguably the best pitching and hitting prospects ever, the team has stockpiled young talent that will keep them competitive for years to come.

The team's main downfall last season was the pitching staff, though.

Prior to Stephen Strasburg's return late in the season, the rotation consisted of Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jordan Zimmerman, Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang.

Needless to say, General Manager Mike Rizzo needed to upgrade the rotation this offseason. I'd say that he was pretty successful.

First, Rizzo worked out a trade with the A's for left hander Gio Gonzalez. He sent the highly touted Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone and Derek Norris.

He finished up the makeover earlier this month, signing a team friendly one-year deal with Edwin Jackson.

The improved rotation figures to help the Nationals move up in the ranks of National League powerhouses this summer. From one to five, the rotation is solid, and could easily rank among the top five in the league.

Here are their predictions.

1. Gio Gonzalez

Gonzalez may be the ace of the staff in 2012, but in no way is he the best starter on the team. That title belongs to the next man, who we'll get to in a few moments (it's no surprise really).

Experience and health is what sets Gonzalez apart from the No. 2 starter, as he is recovering from Tommy John Surgery (still stumped?).

Last season, Gonzalez posted a respectable 16-12 record with a fantastic 3.12 ERA. The fact that he was able to continue his success from 2010 caught the eye of GMs around the league. In what seemed to come down to a race of several teams, the Nationals and Mike Rizzo were able to acquire his services for a big price.

Moving from a division featuring the Rangers and Angels to a division with the biggest offensive threat being the aging Phillies, Gonzalez seems set up to post similar numbers with his new club.

He could realistically post an 18-10 record with around a 3.20 ERA. Much of that is contingent upon Gonzalez limiting his walks, as he led the American League last season with 97 base on balls.

2. Stephen Strasburg

Surprised?

Okay, good. I was getting scared there for a minute.

After coming back from Tommy John Surgery last season, Strasburg started five games, recorded a 1-1 record, pitched to a 1.50 ERA and struck out 24 men in 24 innings pitched.

He burst onto the scene in 2010, showing everyone around the league that they were right to put so much faith in his talents.

In 68 innings, he struck out an incredible 92, while posting a 5-3 record with a 2.91 ERA.

It's very likely that Strasburg will have an innings limit this season (say, 150-160 innings), so it's a possibility that he could be slotted a little farther back in the rotation to avoid putting him on irregular rest.

If the Nationals are out of the playoff hunt by late July they may just shut Strasburg down altogether.

Expect a 13-4 record from Strasburg in 2012, with an ERA around 2.75 and about 180 strikeouts.

Yes, people; he's the real deal.

3. Edwin Jackson

Jackson declined a three-year offer from the Pirates prior to signing his one-year deal with the Nationals. The fact that he turned down three years baffled some people around the league, but Washington is happy that they got him on a team friendly deal.

In 2011 with the White Sox and World Champion Cardinals, Jackson posted a 12-9 record and a 3.79 ERA in 199.2 innings.

Jackson helps solidify a rotation that really hasn't had pitchers capable of tossing 200 innings, and his addition will go a long way in keeping the bullpen fresh.

Despite tossing a no-hitter as a member of the Diamondbacks, inconsistency has killed Jackson throughout the course of his career.

Overall, Jackson's numbers may see a bit of decline from last season. The AL Central and NL Central are relatively weak hitting divisions (with the exception of the Tigers and Brewers), and a move to the better-hitting NL East may take Jackson awhile to adjust to.

In about 210 innings in 2012, Jackson will post a 14-12 record with an ERA around 4.00. Despite the decline, he'll be a big improvement from what the Nationals had last season.

4. Jordan Zimmerman

Zimmerman may be the best No. 4 starter in the NL East. Although Vance Worley of the Phillies will give him a legit challenge, I believe Zimmerman will have a better season in 2012.

After two sub-par seasons to start his career, Zimmerman established himself as a quality  starter in 2011.

Although he posted a 8-11 record, Zimmerman pitched to a 3.18 ERA in just over 160 innings of work. He struck out 124 batters and recorded a WHIP of 1.147.

He won't overpower hitters, so naturally he gives up a decent number of hits. The key for Zimmerman is to limit his walks. He did just that in 2011, walking only 31 batters.

For the first time in his career, Zimmerman will start 30 games for the Nationals. In about 180 innings, he will post an 11-11 record with an 3.40 ERA.

5. John Lannan

There have been rumors surrounding the Nationals apparent excess of starters recently, so Lannan may not be with the team when Opening Day rolls around.

He's a valuable asset in the No. 5 spot in the rotation, though, as he is capable of posting close to 200 innings with a low ERA.

Last season in 184.2 innings, Lannan posted a 10-13 record with an ERA of 3.70.

If Lannan were to be the No. 5 starter in 2012, the Nationals would easily have one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. 

It would also be one of the youngest in the league, as Edwin Jackson is the grizzled veteran at just 28 years old.

If he's not traded, Lannan will post solid numbers in 2012. In 30-plus starts, expect a 10-10 record and an ERA of about 3.80.

Emergency Option: Chien Ming Wang

If Lannan is traded, or if there's an injury to a different member of the rotation, Wang would most likely get the call before Ross Detwiler.

Wang pitched pretty well in 11 starts last season after sitting out all of 2010. In 62.1 innings, Wang recorded a 4.04 ERA and a 4-3 record.

The Nationals rotation would definitely lose a little depth if Wang was the No. 5 starter, but they could definitely do much worse.

If Wang gets the call, expect him to start 20-25 games. Due to the fact that he pitches to contact in a relatively hitter-friendly stadium, his ERA will most likely be around 4.10. If he wins 10 games as the No. 5 starter, the Nationals will be well on their way to a playoff berth in 2012.