Houston Astros: Predicting Their Rotation and Bullpen Lineup for 2012

Spring training has begun and the Houston Astros have begun preparing for the start of the 2012 season on April 6 against the Colorado Rockies. This will be an entertaining camp for fans and a hectic one for the coaching staff, as almost every position is up for grabs.

The Astros had the worst record in the majors last year, and a lot of the blame can be placed on the pitching staff. The starting rotation was inconsistent and the bullpen failed to close out games.

The team ERA of 4.51 was the third worst in the majors and the Astros converted only 50 percent of their save opportunities, finishing dead last in that category. Unfortunately, the Astros didn't do much this offseason bringing in new arms to compete for spots. This is how I envision the starting rotation and bullpen for the start of the upcoming season.

Opening Day Starter: Wandy Rodriguez

Wandy is the longest tenured Houston Astro on the roster, and will most likely get the nod for Opening Day. He is the only player remaining from the 2005 National League Championship team, and was arguably the best pitcher last season.

He was lights out and pitching like an ace from beginning of May to the end of June going 4-1 and dropping his ERA from 4.26 to 2.97. The problem, which has been the case his whole career, is he can't keep it up over a whole season. Hopefully, this year will be different.

No. 2: Bud Norris

As he came up through the farm system, some thought Bud Norris would be more effective coming out of the pen then as a starter. He still needs to work on his secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, but Norris showed last season he could be an effective starter.

He struggled in September going 0-3 in four starts, but this can be expected as he continues to build up the endurance to pitch a full season. He finished the year with a 3.77 ERA, and I expect him to continue to develop. He'll cement himself as a No. 2 quality pitcher.

No. 3: Brett Myers

Brett Myers drops to the third spot in the rotation after struggling in 2011. Some called Brett Myers an ace after going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA in 2010. He fell hard back to Earth in 2011, with a 7-14 record and an ERA of 4.46.

If Myers can rebound and pitch close to the level he did in 2010 ,it will really strengthen this rotation. If not, Myers could be traded at the deadline, since 2013 is a club option in his contract. 

No. 4: Livan Hernandez

Livan Hernandez is the type of pitcher the Astros have gone after the past few years in free agency.

He is a veteran pitcher who might have one more good year left. Hernandez has been an inning eater in his career, most recently pitched for the Washington Nationals. If he can pitch like he did in 2010, when he had a 3.66 ERA and was averaging over six innings a start, he will be a huge help for the Astros.

A good year by Hernandez would be huge for the Astros because it allows them to keep Jordan Lyles down in the minors one more year. Lyles showed flashes of the pitcher many envision him to be, but, at 20 years of age, he also looked overmatched at times. 

No. 5: J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ will be entering his fifth season at the major league level, and this will be a make or break year for the lefty. He came over in the Roy Oswalt trade from the Philadelphia Phillies two seasons ago, and has not developed into the pitcher that many thought him to be.

He finished the season 6-15, but pitched much better after a stint down in the minors at the beginning of August. He finished the year 2-2 with an ERA around 3.50. Hopefully, he can build on that in 2012.

Long Reliever: Zach Duke

The Astros signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract, and Duke should get a look as both a starter and a reliever this spring. I think he fits best as a long reliever because it will provide the Astros another lefty in the bullpen for Brad Mills to use in late-inning situations as well.

Reliever: Juan Abreu

Abreu came to the Astros last season in the Michael Bourn trade, and pitched very well in September. He had an ERA of 1.50 over six innings of work, striking out 10 along the way.

Juan Abreu is a hard thrower. With a strong spring, he should start the year in the bullpen for the Astros.

Reliever: Sergio Escalona

Sergio Escalona spent the majority of the season in the Astros bullpen, and was one of the better relievers. He made 49 appearances and finished the year with a 2.93 ERA. He is a young pitcher who should have another strong year coming out of the bullpen.

Reliever: Wesley Wright

Every year for the past few seasons, Wesley Wright's name seems to come up as a candidate for the bullpen. This year is no different. Wright finished very strong last year, appearing in 21 games over the final two months with a 1.50 ERA.

Last year was by far his best year in the majors, and I think he will be a regular in the bullpen this coming season.

Reliever: David Carpenter

David Carpenter came over to the Astros from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Pedro Feliz trade in 2010, and saw his first action in the majors last year. He appeared in 34 games, striking out 29 in 27.1 innings of work.

He started his major league career not allowing a run in his first five appearances. I think David Carpenter has a real chance to take over as the Astros closer at some point this season with the trade of Mark Melancon to the Boston Red Sox.

Setup Man: Wilton Lopez

Wilton Lopez is one of the best relievers the Astros have and should resume his role as the set up man in 2012. He finished with a 2.97 ERA, the best of his career, over 71 innings, also a career best.

Depending on how the closer situation shakes out, Lopez may get a shot to take over the role this year.

Closer: Brandon Lyon

Yes, he had an ERA over 11, was only 4-for-8 in save opportunities and is coming off major arm surgery. So, of course, Brandon Lyon gets the nod as the Astros closer to start the season because he has a guaranteed contract and has the most experience in the role.

2011 was a rough season for Lyon, but, in 2010, he pitched pretty well in the role. Hopefully, he can return to the 2010 form and add some stability to the position that was lost with the departure of Melancon.