Lance Berkman, Ike Davis Headline 2012's List of Undervalued Fantasy Players

If you play fantasy baseball, this time of year is more exciting than Christmas.

Players have reported to camp, and fantasy enthusiasts are knee-deep in rankings, projections and stats. Hope abounds this time of year as fantasy owners peruse this year's crop of free agents like a tightwad at a swap meet.

Each year, fantasy owners make the same mistakes when evaluating players. They vastly overrate young, up-and-coming players (like Brett Lawrie), and routinely overlook older, less sexy players (like Kevin Youkilis who is, by all standards, less sexy).

In addition, owners routinely fail to properly value players coming off injury-plagued or sub par seasons. 

Before we get to the players themselves, let's first examine what "undervalued" means. Will the players on this list be the best players in baseball? Probably not —those guys are commanding top dollar. But they'll give you production EXCEEDING their cost.

When deciding who to draft in this year, owners should always ask themselves, "is it possible to get the same production for less?" The following players will help maximize investment and, ultimately, help owners finish atop the standings.

Here are the most undervalued players at each position.

Catcher: Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks

I've never been a fan of spending big dollars or high draft picks on catchers. First, the attrition rate among catchers is brutal. Many a season was lost last year on draft day by managers who spent big on Mauer and Posey. In Roto leagues, these two guys went for $30 or more last year!

For that price, you could've landed Adrian Beltre or Robinson Cano—two guys who out-produce even the best catchers year in and year out. 

So, the best strategy is to get consistent production at a discounted price. And Miguel Montero is a great example of this type of player. He led all catchers in RBI last year and posted the third highest OPS among backstops. He hits in the heart of a solid Diamondbacks lineup and plays half his games in Chase Field, a hitters park.

In Montero, there are decent numbers with good batting averages for a good prices. 

Honorable Mention

Matt Wieters may never become the elite hitter scouts projected, but he quietly led all catchers in runs scored last year and improved from 2010.  

First Base: Ike Davis, New York Mets

I Like Ike!

Last year was supposed to be Ike Davis' break-out year. And for the first month and a half, it was.

In 129 at-bats, he absolutely mashed opposing pitchers, putting up this stat line in the process: .302/7/25/20/0. That was projected over a full season to be 30HR, 100RBI and 100R.

Unfortunately, he collided with David Wright on May 10 and suffered a season-ending ankle injury. But he's healthy now, still only 25 and hitting cleanup on a Mets team that just moved the fences to encourage offense.

He'll be drafted after the studs, the constant producers and the up-and-comers. But if you draft him, he'll make you look like the smartest person in your league. 

Honorable Mention

Paul Konerko. He's old and slow, but he keeps hitting for power and average—and he's undervalued every year.

Second Base: Chase Utley, Philladelphia Phillies

Reports of Chase Utley's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

From 2008-2010 he lead all second basemen in OBP, OPS and runs. He was second in home runs and RBI during that time. A couple years ago, Utley was one of the safest first-round picks in fantasy—an automatic .300/20/100/100 guy who could steal double-digit bases. 

But now Utley's being drafted as the seventh best 2B in ESPN and the eighth best 2B in Yahoo. Fantasy owners have already given his eulogy.

But he's 33, not dead!

And while the days of 30 HR/ 24 SB are gone, Utley still has at least one year of .300/20/90/90 left in him.

Utley is dealing with chronic pain in his knee. But that pain affects him when fielding, not hitting. So the reason for his decline last year wasn't pain in the knee, but the lack of preseason strengthening. This year, Utley's already in camp and has worked on his leg strength in the offseason. 

He's younger than Michael Young, has better plate discipline than Brandon Phillips, and hits for a much higher average than Dan Uggla. Yet he'll cost less than any of these guys. 

Honorable Mention

Whichever second baseman is the last taken last in the Uggla, Kinsler, Phillips, Young, Zobrist group. The first among these will be over priced, the last will be undervalued.  

Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers

There's only one Troy Tulowitzki—a 900-plus OPS player at position mostly bereft of offensive production. So if you miss out on him, save your money and upgrade your other players. 

Jose Reyes is a walking, talking, D.L. stint and Hanley hasn't been happy or productive since 2010. And beneath them lie a slew of banjo hitters, aging veterans and one-trick ponies. 

So I like the value of Johnny Peralta. Consider these 2011 numbers:

Player	Avg	HR	RBI	R	SB
Peralta	299	21	86	68	0
Jeter	.297	6	61	84	16

Jeter will steal a few extra bases, but the extra power from Peralta more than makes up the difference. Somebody in the draft is going to utter the words, "Yikes! All the recognizable shortstops are off the board! I better just pay whatever it takes to get Jeter." And then you should be able to get similar production in later rounds or for less than half the cost!   

Honorable Mention

I believe J.J. Hardy's 2011 numbers are real. He'll continue to relish the opportunity to hit in Baltimore (instead of Minnesota) in a hitter's park.

Third Base: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

This year, third base is deeper than Einstein's theories.

Miggy and Hanley are headed over to a hot corner that still includes Bautista and a host of other productive players. Consider this: If you play in a 12-team Yahoo league, and you wait until everyone else has a 3B, you could still end up with Aramis Ramirez, a productive hitter who put up a .306/26/93/80/1 line last year on an awful Cubs team.

This year, Youkilis is being criminally undervalued. He's being drafted behind Alex Rodriguez (who's on his last legs—and knees and hips), Brett Lawrie (who only had 150 AB last year) and the Zimmerman/Wright combo (which can't stay on the field).

Until last year, Youk had three straight years of .950+ ops production. He plays hurt, he gets on base (which, leads to runs) and he bats in the heart of a Red Sox lineup, which was first in offensive production in 2011.

He'll be available late and he'll out-produce all but the super-elite third basemen. 

Honorable Mention

Aramis Ramirez has some weird home/road splits, but the 12th ranked 3B still had 93 RBI and 26 HR last year.  

Left Field: Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals

"He's old and slow." "He's past his prime." "Pujols no longer hits in the same lineup." "Vultures are picking at his dead corpse..."

It's funny how drastically age can affect draft cost.

And while there are legitimate reasons for not liking Berkman (his age, his looks, his clumsy style, his age, his age), there are no legitimate excuses for passing on the fifth highest OPS when it's available in the sixth or seventh round! Even if you think Berkman regresses 10 percent in EVERY CATEGORY this season, his 2012 season would still out-produce Matt Holiday's 2011 campaign.

And he's going for half the price. 

Let a lesser manager pay twice the price for a .300/80/20/80 season. You'll have the oldest, slowest, SMARTEST investment in your league. 

Honorable Mention

Alex Gordon's 2012 price tag has been suppressed because owners are wary that his success last season was a fluke. It wasn't. Count on similar numbers this season and enjoy the reduced price tag!  

Center Field: Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies

In center field, you have the top-tier guys, some appropriately valued players and lots of risk.

You could could be the hero of your draft if you can predict which of the following center fielders will regain elite status: Alex Rios, Jayson Werth, Adam Jones, Colby Rasmus, B.J. Upton or Vernon Wells. And you could be the goat of your draft if you expect Emilio Bonifacio or Melky Cabrera to continue to produce at 2011 levels. 

I think too many people are passing on Dexter Fowler this year.

His last trip to the minors in June, where the Rockies tightened his swing, seems to have yielded serious results. Before the demotion he was hitting .240 with a 700 OPS. After his call-up to the Rockies, he hit over .280 with an OPS of .900!

He spent all offseason training with Matt Kemp and he gained 15 pounds of muscle in the process. I wouldn't expect a .900 OPS season, but if he hits .270/10/60/100/20 in 2012, he'll be a steal in your league. 

Honorable Mention

Andrew McCutchen is being drafted beneath Granderson, Ellsbury and Gonzalez, but could produce a similar season at less cost.   

Right Field: Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves

Ok, I understand that Jason Heyward has been an all publicity, no production player thus far. He could be the most well-publicized .250 hitter of all time.

But he's 22! Most 22-year-olds aren't even in the majors yet. Statistically, he was incredibly unlucky on the balls he put into play last year. He has tremendous plate discipline, drawing walks at a rate befitting a man 10 years his senior. 

The Braves are a good team and the lineup will generate runs. And when Heyward finds his grove, he's going to be a beast. This is a rare opportunity to buy low on a supremely talented player.

I'm not going to be surprised if Heyward goes .270/28/100/90/15 this season. And that's great production for his current draft cost. 

Honorable Mention

Shin-Soo Choo lost most of his 2011 season—and some of his  2012 cost—to a thumb injury. But he's still an excellent, five-tool player at a discount this year. 

Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

Drafting pitchers is simple: Find guys with high K/9 rates and low K/BB rates. Specifically, look for guys with K/9 over 8.00 and and K/BB over three.

Essentially, these are the guys who miss bats and limit walks.

The pitchers who do this best are mostly at the top of your draft—the Kershaws, Halladays and Verlanders of the world. But further down the draft board, there are some great values to be found.

One such pitcher is Max Scherzer. 

Scherzer is being drafted alongside pitchers with inferior strikeout rates and elevated walk rates. Why? Because he had an unsightly 4.43 ERA last season. But Scherzer's peripheral numbers suggest that bloated ERA was a result of bad luck, not bad pitching. In fact, Schezer showed improved control last season to go with his elite strikeout abilities.

He pitches for a Tigers team that will win a lot of games—in a pitcher's park. He's worked this offseason to improve his two-seam fastball, which should lead to more ground balls, more innings pitched and a lower ERA.

Draft him late and expect him to finish in the upper third of fantasy pitchers this season. 

Honorable Mention

Mat Latos and Madison Bumgarner are slightly more expensive versions of Scherzer, and should be targeted on draft day for their superior strikeout numbers and excellent control. 

Relief Pitcher: Houston Street, San Diego Padres

Houston Street was an adequate closer in a bad situation for the last few years. But a move to PETCO Park will make him a top-10 closer this season.

Street has always possessed excellent control (1.39 BB/9 in 2011) and strikeout ability (8.49 K/9 in 2011), but he's a fly ball pitcher. And in Coors Field, fly balls become home runs.

But in PETCO, fly balls become outs. Street could easily be a 35-40 save guy this season with a sub 3.00 ERA.

If so, you'd be getting a top-10 closer for a top-20 price!

Honorable Mention

Jordan Walden, Carlos Marmol and Rafael Betancourt are three late-round guys who will help your strikeout totals and could finish the season as top-15 closers.