Cleveland Browns' 10-Win 2012 Plan, Step Four: The First Round Draft Picks

The Colts will take QB Andrew Luck of Stanford.  That is a given. 

I believe that if a franchise QB is on the board when your pick comes up, you should take him.  That quality of QB is rare.  If Robert Griffin III is there at the fourth round, I would run over anyone standing in the isle on my way to the podium to deliver the pick.  However, that is not likely to happen.

I believe that the Rams will trade the second pick to the highest bidder.  While the Browns will put in their offer, I doubt it will win the mini-lottery.  The most likely asking price by the Rams will start at three first round picks. 

The pick and thus QB Robert Griffin III from Baylor will go to the Redskins or Dolphins.

The Redskins will be the most desperate to get Griffin.  The owner Dan Snyder is known for having a very limited amount of patience.

The Skins, under HC Mike Shanahan, have been less than successful.  He has a record of 11 wins and 21 losses, a winning percentage of only .344.  The seat under Shanahan is warm.  In addition, he and Snyder are not on the same page when it comes to personnel.  There have been several high-priced signings that have failed to produce results. 

The team also has a history of trading away top draft picks.  They are the most likely to be willing to give up whatever it takes to get the pick and the QB.

New HC of the Dolphins Joe Philbin was the OC of the Packers.  He knows QB Matt Flynn better than any other coach or GM.  If he wants Flynn, he will get him.  If he does not want Flynn, neither should anyone else.

Flynn knows the system and the terminology that Philbin will implement, so if he does not think Flynn is a franchise QB, other teams like the Browns should stay clear as well.  If the Dolphins are also bidding for the second pick, the price will go even higher.

The Vikings with the third pick will then most likely grab OT Matt Kalil from USC.

That brings us to the Browns and their No. 4 pick.  There are several possible choices for the Browns.

Alternative No. 1: Trade Down

There will be a number of offers for the Browns to trade down.

Several teams will be interested in the players I have listed.  The Browns could well end up with an additional second- and perhaps third-round pick by trading down five or six picks. However, this alternative will not be very popular with the fanbase.

Many were alarmed with the trade-down in 2011.  The team management does not seem concerned about fan reaction.  They will do whatever they believe is in the best interest of the team.

 

Alternative No. 2: Morris Claiborne

Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: 6'0'' and 185 pounds

I have Claiborne rated higher than either of the top two CBs last year.  He has excellent speed and ball skills.  He has above average football instincts and reads the play and the QB very well.

He locks down the top WR and takes away half of the field.  His very quick hands help him deflect balls.  He is good but not great at runs support and has the catch-up speed to help out in a zone defense.

He is clearly worth the pick in terms of his value and I would not be upset if the Browns took him.  He would be the closest thing to a rookie lock-down corner since Deion Sanders.  The Browns spent the majority of their picks in the last two drafts on defense.

While Claiborne is an outstanding player, I doubt that they will take him.

 

Alternative No. 3: Justin Blackmon

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: 6’1” and 215 pounds

Blackmon is clearly the top WR in the draft.  However, in my and a lot of other draft analysts' opinion, he would have been the third WR in the 2011 draft.  He is a decent size but I expect him to run a 4.54 40-yard dash.  That reduces his value to the Browns who need a speed receiver to blow the top off the defense.

Blackmon is a dependable receiver with above-average hands and the ability to catch well against tight coverage.  He is also a good run blocker.  He can get open in college, but with limited top speed, there is a question about his ability to get up in the NFL. 

He runs good patterns and will catch the bad pass.  He has produced yards after the catch, but it must be remembered he played in the Big 12.  That conference is not known for its great pass coverage. 

The Browns need a WR badly.  In fact, they need several.  Mohamed Massaquoi has a history of concussions and has not been the same WR since he was hurt in 2010 against the Steelers.

Josh Cribbs has struggled with route-running and catching the ball.  Greg Little has only two seasons at the position (he is a former RB).  Jordan Norwood was a great find.  He became the most reliable receiver but is small and has concussion issues as well.

In my opinion, the fourth pick is too high to take Blackmon.

Alternative No. 4: Riley Reiff

Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa: 6’6” and 300

Reiff is the second best OT in the draft behind Kalil.  He is a natural knee-bender which allows him to use his leverage and get under the defender.  He is only OK at drive blocking and is primarily a pass blocker.  He is not asked to pull and block outside on a sweep, but he has the feet to do that. 

I do not like Reiff as much as most analysts do.  He has played RT early in his career at Iowa but will play LT for most teams in the NFL.  He is a good RT, but he will want to get LT money in his second contract. 

While the RT spot has been a major issue for the team, this pick would be a waste.  It is too much to pay a RT, and the team has other more pressing needs at this point in the draft.  I have already proposed signing a veteran for the position.

A developmental RT can be drafted in the middle rounds.

Alternative No. 5: Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: 6'4" and 225 pounds

There are rumors circulating of the Browns talking about Tannehill for the fourth pick.  That is a joke (at best) and the biggest reach since the Lions fired GM Matt Millen (at worst).

Tannehill has been playing QB for a season and a half.  He has an above-average arm but is green as baby peas.  His footwork is horrible and his throwing motion is all over the place.  He will not be ready for two or three years.  He is AT BEST a late first-round or early second-round pick.

At the fourth pick, Tannehill would be a total disaster.

 

Alternative No. 6: Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: 5’11” and 224 pounds

On my draft list, Richardson is the highest ranked RB since Adrian Peterson.  He is an outstanding runner inside with great vision and a jump step to get to any hole he sees.  He has the speed to get outside.  He gets to top speed very quickly.  He is also patient and lets his linemen set up their blocks.

He has excellent football instincts and is a very capable pass blocker, picking up the blitz effectively. 

Richardson sheds tackles easily and has the ability to avoid contact. 

Something that puts him above the other RBs in the draft is his effectiveness as a receiver.  He can take a three-yard check down and make 15 or 20 yards.  He catches the ball away from his body and snatches it at the high point.  He can catch against tight coverage.

The Browns need a RB.  Although most Browns fans want RB Peyton Hillis back, I doubt he'll end up in Cleveland.  Despite his outstanding 2010 season, in 2011 he lost the locker room and the trust of the coaching staff.

Montario Hardesty, a second-round pick in 2010, was out all of his rookie season and a non-factor in 2011.  He hurt himself in a pregame warm up.  We never saw Brandon Jackson.  He was hurt by the Madden Curse as soon as it was announced he had been signed.  

I would take Richardson with the fourth pick.  There is a great chance that the Buccaneers will take him with the fifth pick if Cleveland trades down.  He is a two-for-one pick, giving them a real chance to make a first down with a third-and-eight check-down pass.   

The Browns' Options with Pick No. 22

Judging what the Browns will do with this pick is hard.  It all depends on who falls down farther than expected and what positions they think are most important. 

Most experts predict a WR in this pick, but the WR group is weak at the top but is deep in quality for later picks.  There are several guys that should be of interest to the team, and I would love to see them look at one of the OLB candidates.  However, the team believes that LBs are mid-round picks and will never spend a first-round pick on that position.

Alternative No.1: Whitney Mercilus

Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois: 6’4” and 265 pounds

Mercilus is my second-ranked DE in the draft behind Nick Perry of USC.  Mercilus is very consistent with a high motor and equally good at taking on the run or chasing the QB.  He has good instincts and reads plays well.  He handles a double team well with the power to split it to get the sack.  He takes good angles to the QB and has excellent speed for a DE.  He sheds blocks well.

He attacks the run and reads the play effectively.  He can make the play and cause a fumble with a single motion.

I really like Mercilus.  The Browns need a DE to provide pressure opposite Jabaal Sheard.  However, this is too high to take yet another defensive player.  I expect this pick to be on the offensive side of the ball.

 

Alternative No. 2: Michael Floyd

Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: 6’3” and 224 pounds

Floyd comes with a boxcar full of baggage.  He has had DUIs and has been suspended from the team, but he has a lot of talent and seems to play his best in big games. 

He catches the ball naturally and away from his body.  He catches against tight coverage and when the ball is badly thrown.  He has above-average awareness.  While he is not a speedster, he can get open.  His two biggest qualities are his ability to break tackles and provide yards after the catch.  He will break tackles like a RB and is aware of tacklers around him to get as much yardage after the catch as possible.

I like WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) better than Floyd, and he will be available with the Browns' second-round pick.  I also really like Ryan Broyle (Oklahoma), who will be a steal in the fifth round to be the Browns' second WR pickup in the offseason.  So, I am not interested in a guy with that much baggage with our 22^nd pick.

 

 

Alternative No. 3: Courtney Upshaw

Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama: 6’2” and 273 Pounds

Upshaw is capable of playing ILB, OLB or DE, but in my opinion, he would be best as a 4-3 DE.  He reads plays quickly and attacks the run.  He also has both a speed and a power pass rush.  His blitz timing is excellent.  He struggles to cover the running back or TE on pass patterns in either zone or man.

Upshaw is the kind of defensive player that can be used from any position and will be effective rushing the QB.

There is a good chance Upshaw might be gone by pick No. 22, but if he is there, he would be a good pick.

Even if he is on the board at 22, the team may want to go for an offensive player.

Alternative No. 4: Kendall Wright

Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: 5’10” and 190 pounds

Wright is a guy that has shot up the draft board like a space shuttle.  He is at best a possession type receiver in the mold of Wes Welker (Pats).  He is not going to be a No. 1 receiver in my opinion.

He is fast and quick.  He can get open in a limited space.  He catches the ball away from his body but is not strong enough to fight off tight coverage and get the ball.  He is not an end zone threat unless he can get wide open.  He has the juking ability to avoid tacklers in the open field.

The questions about him: Can he get off the line of scrimmage against press coverage and can he get open in the NFL like he did in college?  The Big 12 is not famous for its DBs.  He will see a guy equal to the best guy he ever faced in college every week in the NFL. 

The last question: Would he have risen so fast if he did not have RG3 as his QB?  I would not want Wright in the first round.

There were rumors that the QB the Browns’ really wanted is Matt Barkley (Southern California).  He has played in an offense as close to the West Coast offense as exists in college.

When he decided to stay in school, the thought was the team would use the 22^nd pick to get an additional first-round pick in the 2013 draft.  That might give them the firepower to trade up to get Barkley.  It would also let Colt McCoy have another year to prove himself with better weapons around him this season.

Alternative No. 5: Trade Down

The Browns could well get an extra second- and third-round pick by trading this pick.  They could get a first-round pick next season and a third-round pick this year in exchange for it.  There will be someone that falls unexpectedly.  If that is a player that the Browns like, they will take him with this pick.  Otherwise, look for the team to trade down.

Next time we will look at rounds two and three.

That is what I think.  Tell us what you think.

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Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He edits http://fryingpansports.com.  He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/ and a non-fiction work at http://www.merriam-press.com/.