Boston Red Sox: Stat Projections for All 25 Roster Players

Forget Christmas—this is the most wonderful time of the year.

It's baseball season.

The smell of freshly cut grass is in the air, while the sounds of bats cracking and gloves slapping sing their sweet melodies across the most beautiful diamonds in the world.

With spring training comes the sense of renewed faith in the local nine.  There are going to be seven new faces on the roster for the Boston Red Sox in 2012.  That's 28 percent of the roster, to be exact.

Couple that with the new manager and general manager, and there are a lot of changes taking place this season.

The team has a lot to prove and several players have chips on their shoulders.  Here is a look at how I see the team producing in 2012.

For the record, I will be utilizing the lineup predicted by the Boston Globe's Chad Finn, which I view as a fine assessment for opening day.  Also, I will be using numerous statistics from my favorite website on Earth, Baseball Reference.

Josh Beckett

2011 Statistics

13-7, 2.89 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 30 starts, 193 innings pitched, 175 strikeouts, one complete game, one shutout.

162-Game Average

15-10, 3.84 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 34 starts, 211 innings pitched, 199 strikeouts, one complete game, one shutout.

2012 Projection

17-9, 3.26 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 31 starts, 203.2 innings pitched, 183 strikeouts, two complete games, two shutouts.

Beckett had his best stuff in 2011, believe it or not.  I suspect there will be a slight bump in his ERA and WHIP (and with 10 other seasons of evidence, it's a pretty fair case to make). However, he won't go so high as his career averages, etc.  

The Sox ace will come back strong and healthy with a chip on his shoulder.  Once again he will be in the Cy Young conversation. 

Jon Lester

2011 Statistics

15-9, 3.47 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 31 starts, 191.2 innings pitched, 182 strikeouts, no complete games, no shutouts.

162-Game Average

17-7, 3.53 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 34 starts, 211 innings pitched, 197 strikeouts, one complete game, no shutouts.

2012 Projection

21-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 33 starts, 216 innings pitched, 193 strikeouts, one complete game, one shutout.

Jon Lester is primed to become the ace of the Red Sox staff.  He has won more games than Beckett since 2008 and has been among the top left-handed hurlers in the game.  

2012 is the season that Jon Lester wins the Cy Young Award and starts the All-Star game for the American League.

Clay Buchholz

2011 Statistics

6-3. 3.48 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 14 starts, 82.2 innings pitched, 60 strikeouts, zero complete games, zero shutouts.

162-Game Average

15-11, 3.64 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 34 starts, 197 innings pitched, 151 strikeouts, one complete game, one shutout.

2012 Projection

13-8, 3.55 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, 30 starts, 173.2 innings pitched, 134 strikeouts, one complete game, one shutout.

Buchholz has always been considered good.  He has never taken the leap to show just how good he can be.  2012 will be a solid season for him, as he is one of the guilty parties from the "chicken and beer" show that took over the Red Sox news in October.

With Buchholz's solid season, the front end of the Red Sox rotation will provide 51 wins for the club. 

Daniel Bard

2011 Statistics

2-9, 3.33 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, zero starts, 73 innings pitched, 74 strikeouts, zero complete games, zero shutouts (70 total appearances, one save).

162-Game Average

Well, using Baseball Reference won't apply here—we're on to new territory with Bard.

2012 Projections

8-10, 3.55 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 28 starts, 151.2 innings pitched, 123 strikeouts, one complete game, zero shutouts.

Bard will certainly have a lot to prove this season.  Many people question the idea of having him as a starting pitcher, while others think he lacks the makeup of a closer.

This experiment will be a fun one to watch, especially having a fourth starter who can throw 100mph.

Vicente Padilla

2011 Statistics

0-0, 4.15 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, zero starts, 8.2 innings pitched, nine strikeouts, zero complete games, zero shutouts.

162-Game Average

12-11, 4.31 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, 28 starts, 182 innings pitched, 128 strikeouts, zero complete games, zero shutouts.

2012 Projections

3-6, 5.40 ERA, 1.474 WHIP, 12 starts, 69.1 innings pitched, 55 strikeouts, zero complete games, zero shutouts.

The expectations for Vicente Padilla are not very high.  In fact, I'm pretty positive he will be filling the spot until Daisuke Matsuzaka can return from his Tommy John surgery sometime in June/July.  

If Padilla falters before then, I'm sure the revolving door of re-tread arms the front office has signed will see their share of starts.

Matt Albers

2011 Statistics

4-4, 4.73 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 56 games, zero saves, 64.2 innings pitched, 68 strikeouts.

162-Game Average

5-8, 5.04 ERA, 1.537 WHIP, 62 games, zero saves, 100 innings pitched, 72 strikeouts, six starts.

2012 Projection

3-4, 4.67 ERA, 1.484 WHIP, 51 games, zero saves, 82 innings pitched, 59 strikeouts, two starts.

Albers proved himself to be a fairly reliable bullpen pitcher for the Red Sox in 2011.  His three years of AL East experience in Baltimore definitely helped to prepare him for Boston. 

Bobby Jenks

2011 Statistics

2-2, 6.32 ERA, 2.234 WHIP, 19 games, zero saves, 15.2 innings pitched, 17 strikeouts.

162-Game Average

3-4, 3.53 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 68 games, 34 saves, 70 innings pitched, 69 strikeouts.

2012 Projection

2-3, 3.69 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 52 games, six saves, 55 innings pitched, 48 strikeouts.

The only bigger question mark I would have on this pitching staff would have been John Lackey.  

Andrew Miller

2011 Statistics

6-3, 5.54 ERA, 1.815 WHIP, 17 games, zero saves, 65 innings pitched, 50 strikeouts, 12 starts.

162-Game Average

9-12, 5.79 ERA, 1.750 WHIP, 40 games, zero saves, 151 innings pitched, 121 strikeouts, 28 starts.

2012 Projection

4-2, 5.67 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 21 games, zero saves, 79 innings pitched, 64 strikeouts, five starts.

Miller could prove to be a stop-gap once again come 2012.  While the No. 5 starter is still very much up in the air rolling in to spring training, I would not be surprised to see him land a few starts peppered throughout the season.

Franklin Morales

2011 Statistics

1-2, 3.69 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 50 games, zero saves, 46.1 innings pitched, 42 strikeouts.

162-Game Average

4-5, 4.61 ERA, 1.475 WHIP, 61 games, four saves, 80 innings pitched, 64 strikeouts, seven starts.

2012 Projection

1-1, 3.94 ERA, 1.386 WHIP, 55 games, one save, 72.1 innings pitched, 57 strikeouts, one start.

While sitting at my desk running these projected statistics, one thing is becoming very clear to me—the Red Sox have insane bullpen depth heading into 2012.  

Morales can be an awesome asset, capable of starting or closing if need be with every other gig sprinkled in between.

Mark Melancon

2011 Statistics

8-4, 2.78 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 71 games, 20 saves, 74.1 innings pitched, 64 strikeouts.

162-Game Average

6-3, 3.21 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 68 games, 13 saves, 72 innings pitched, 63 strikeouts.

2012 Projection

3-1, 2.64 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 65 games, 10 saves, 68.1 innings pitched, 70 strikeouts.

Mark Melancon is going to fit in nicely amid all of the great pitching depth.  I have full confidence that he'll take over as the Red Sox key set-up man in 2012.

Alfredo Aceves

2011 Statistics

10-2, 2.61 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, 55 games, two saves, 114 innings pitched, 80 strikeouts, four starts.

162-Game Average

13-2, 2.93 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 63 games, two saves, 133 innings pitched, 92 strikeouts, five starts.

2012 Projection

10-6, 2.80 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 59 games, two saves, 100.2 innings pitched, 69 strikeouts, seven starts.

Alfredo Aceves is the every-man of the Red Sox, taking the place of the newly retired Tim Wakefield.  He can start, he can close, he specializes in long-relief.  Aceves will be a valuable asset to the team in 2012.

Andrew Bailey

2011 Statistics

0-4, 3.24 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 42 games, 24 saves, 41.2 innings pitched, 41 strikeouts.

162-Game Average

3-4, 2.07 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, 68 games, 32 saves, 75 innings pitched, 75 strikeouts.

2012 Projection

2-1, 1.54 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, 66 games, 34 saves, 67 innings pitched, 65 strikeouts.

Bailey has never had this kind of opportunity to rack up the saves.  For the first time in his career, he will be closing games for a team that will likely win 90 or more games.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

2011 Statistics

103 games, 84 hits, 16 home runs, 56 RBI, .235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, .757 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 131 hits, 18 home runs, 69 RBI, .244 BA, .307 OBP, .406 SLG, .712 OPS.

2012 Projection

115 games, 93 hits, 18 home runs, 63 RBI, .251 BA, .290 OBP, .412 SLG, .701 OPS.

Salty has become the Red Sox everyday starting catcher, and he's filling the role just fine.  

While I personally believe that the job will be Ryan Lavarnway's in due time, Salty will provide just enough offense and defense to help the team in 2012.

Kelly Shoppach

2011 Statistics

87 games, 39 hits, 11 home runs, 22 RBI, .176 BA, .268 OBP, .339 SLG, .607 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 102 hits, 21 home runs, 63 RBI, .224 BA, .315 OBP, .417 SLG, .732 OPS.

2012 Projection

47 games, 25 hits, six home runs, 15 RBI, .183 BA, .274 OBP, .338 SLG, .612 OPS.

The one-time Red Sox will make his return to Fenway Park in 2012 to spell Jarrod Saltalamacchia a day off here and there.  As with pretty much every other backup catcher in the league, he'll be sufficient.

Adrian Gonzalez

2011 Statistics

159 games, 213 hits (led the AL), 27 home runs, 117 RBI, .338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, .957 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 177 hits, 31 home runs, 102 RBI, .293 BA, .375 OBP, .514 SLG, .889 OPS.

2012 Projection

160 games, 201 hits, 38 home runs, 122 RBI, .327 BA, .422 OBP, .551 SLG, .973 OPS.

Adrian Gonzalez is going to make a strong bid for the American League MVP in 2012.  

While there is only speculation and no actual evidence, there is a school of thought out there that proclaims Gonzalez played in 2011 while not fully recovered from his preseason surgery, and look how well he performed.

This year will be different.

Dustin Pedroia

2011 Statistics

159 games, 195 hits, 21 home runs, 91 RBI, .307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, .861 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 195 hits, 17 home runs, 78 RBI, .305 BA, .373 OBP, .463 SLG, .837 OPS.

2012 Projection

161 games, 187 hits, 20 home runs, 88 RBI, .301 BA, .378 OBP, .458 SLG, .837 OPS.

Pedroia will continue his onslaught on opposing teams in 2012. He has proven himself to be one of the best second baseman in the game both offensively and defensively.

The man has swagger and a lot of pride—both were hurt by his teammates in 2011, and he will shoulder a lot of the load righting the ship in 2012.  

Kevin Youkilis

2011 Statistics

120 games, 111 hits, 17 home runs, 80 RBI, .258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, .833 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 165 hits, 23 home runs, 98 RBI, .289 BA, .391 OBP, .492 SLG, .883 OPS.

2012 Projection

145 games, 134 hits, 25 home runs, 96 RBI, .312 BA, .385 OBP, .512 SLG, .896 OPS.

Youk is in need of a big bounce-back season in 2012.  

His durability is becoming a question, especially considering he played in all of two more games than JD Drew in 2010 and 2011 (222 to 220).

Jose Iglesias

2011 Statistics (MLB only)

10 games, 2 hits, zero home runs, zero RBI, .333 BA, .333 OBP, .333 SLG, .667 OPS.

162-Game Average

Does not qualify.

2012 Projection

28 games, 16 hits, zero home runs, 12 RBI, .197 BA, .268 OBP, .274 SLG, .534 OPS.

This is one player that I disagree with being on the 25-man roster.  I don't think Iglesias will be ready in 2012.

While his defense is other-worldly, his bat is having a terrible time catching up.  He was visibly over-matched in triple-A Pawtucket in 2011.  Unless that changes, I doubt he'll see much playing time at all in 2012 with the Red Sox.

Nick Punto

2011 Statistics

63 games, 37 hits, one home run, 20 RBI, .278 BA, .388 OBP, .421 SLG, .809 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 118 hits, three home runs, 40 RBI, .249 BA, .325 OBP, .327 SLG, .652 OPS.

2012 Projection

52 games, 32 hits, zero home runs, 14 RBI, .263 BA, .320 OBP, .337 SLG, .657 OPS.

Nick Punto will be splitting time with Mike Aviles at shortstop in 2012.  Having this "shortstop by committee" is new ground in 2012 for any team.

It should prove interesting, to say the least.

Mike Aviles

2011 Statistics

91 games, 73 hits, seven home runs, 39 RBI, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, .698 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 172 hits, 12 home runs, 62 RBI, .288 BA, .318 OBP, .419 SLG, .737 OPS.

2012 Projection

83 games, 77 hits, six home runs, 36 RBI, .263 BA, .310 OBP, ..430 SLG, .740 OPS.

Aviles will make a solid case for himself as being the full-time shortstop in 2012, but I can see manager Bobby Valentine utilizing all of the pieces he has been given.

David Ortiz

2011 Statistics

146 games, 162 hits, 29 home runs, 96 RBI, .309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, .953 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 164 hits, 35 home runs, 118 RBI, .283 BA, .378 OBP, .544 SLG, .922 OPS.

2012 Projection

145 games, 148 hits, 31 home runs, 88 RBI, .292 BA, .384 OBP, .530 SLG, .915 OPS.

Ortiz signed a mega-deal—now he needs to perform.  Period.

Ryan Sweeney

2011 Statistics

108 games, 70 hits, one home run, 25 RBI, .265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, .687 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 147 hits, five home runs, 58 RBI, .283 BA, .342 OBP, .378 SLG, .720 OPS.

2012 Projection

55 games, 49 hits, two home runs, 20 RBI, .275 BA, .330 OBP, .365 SLG, .696 OPS.

Sweeney was the "throw in" piece from the Oakland A's in the deal for Andrew Bailey.  

While he will see a decent amount of time to start the season with Carl Crawford out, I see him being the regular fourth outfielder, spelling Crawford and Ross time off here and there.  

Cody Ross

2011 Statistics

121 games, 97 hits, 14 home runs, 52 RBI, .240 BA, .325 OBP, .405 SLG, .730 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 136 hits, 21 home runs, 79 RBI, .261 BA, .363 OBP, .456 SLG, .779 OPS.

2012 Projection

122 games, 100 hits, 15 home runs, 56 RBI, .268 BA, .348 OBP, .436 SLG, .783 OPS.

After having a bit of a let-down season in San Francisco in 2011, Ross can come to Boston and put up JD Drew numbers. He can be considered a success, because he won't be making JD Drew money. 

Carl Crawford

2011 Statistics

130 games, 129 hits, 11 home runs, 56 RBI, .255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, .694 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 191 hits, 14 home runs, 77 RBI, .293 BA, .333 OBP, .441 SLG, .773 OPS.

2012 Projection

147 games, 178 hits, 13 home runs, 70 RBI, .287 BA, .384 OBP, .435 SLG, .820 OPS.

Carl Crawford will have a tremendous bounce-back year in 2012.  I've been on this theory for what feels like forever.  

Alongside the statistics posted above, I can foresee him swiping 45-50 bases as well.

Jacoby Ellsbury

2011 Statistics

158 games, 212 hits, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, .321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, .928 OPS.

162-Game Average

162 games, 195 hits, 17 home runs, 75 RBI, .301 BA, .354 OBP, .452 SLG, .807 OPS.

2012 Projection

162 games, 208 hits, 36 home runs, 115 RBI, .340 BA, .396 OBP, .555 SLG, .951 OPS.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that Jacoby Ellsbury is not transforming into one of the greatest players in Major League Baseball.  

By many accounts, he should have won the AL MVP in 2011.  In addition to the stats above, he stole 39 bases in 2011.  I can see him swiping 40 bases and possibly hitting the 40-home-run mark in 2012.