Minnesota Twins: Assessing If 2012 Will Be Like '10 or '11

The Minnesota Twins are coming off the second-worst season since the franchise moved to Minnesota in 1961. The 31 fewer games they won in 2011, compared to 2010, is the greatest drop in Twins' history. 

The last time the Twins even came this close to a collapse was 1971.

After winning their second consecutive American League West title with a 98-win season in 1970 the Twins dropped to 74-86—a 24-game drop finishing fifth in the six-team division.

It wasn't until 1988 the Twins finished with at least 90 wins again. The good news here is they did win the 1987 World Series with only 85 wins. But, I digress, and I don't want to get anyone's hopes up that the Twins are even near contending for a championship.

Based on the fact it took 17 seasons for the Twins to recover, rebuild and refocus to win 90 games, it could be another long frustrating season for Twins fans.

So what is in store for the Twins in 2012?

I compared what I believe is the strongest lineup for the Twins in 2012 to their 94-win season of  2010 and their 99-loss team from 2011 in an attempt to determine just how strong the Twins lineup could be this season.

Here's a position-by-position look at the Minnesota Twins roster and an assessment as how the team will fare in 2012.  

Catcher: Joe Mauer vs. Drew Butera vs. Ryan Doumit

Starting behind the plate, I am still a strong proponent of moving Joe Mauer to another position.

The argument that Mauer deserves $23 million per season because of his catching ability is a little weak. The Twins gave him the eight-year $184 million contract because he can hit. A .323 career hitter, Mauer has averaged only 115 games per season.

The Twins need him in the lineup a lot more than that.

With the signing of Ryan Doumit the Twins have another capable backstop.

In 2010, Mauer started 107 games at catcher and played in 137 total. He hit .327 with nine home runs and 75 RBI.

In 2011 Drew Butera led the Twins with 75 starts behind the dish. He hit only .167 with two home runs and 23 RBI.

Over seven major league seasons Ryan Doumit has averaged .271 with 10 home runs and 38 RBI. In 2010 he caught 100 games for the Pirates.  

The Twins win by subtraction in 2012 by moving Mauer to another position. Doumit will provide more offence than Butera, and the Twins benefit by Mauer getting more at-bats.

If manager Ron Gardenhire insists on keeping Mauer in the starting lineup at catcher than the Twins will be closer to 2011 than 2010, as the wear and tear will limit Mauer's presence in the lineup.  

First Base: Michael Cuddyer vs. Justin Morneau vs. Joe Mauer

There are a lot of people out there that believe the Twins signed Joe Mauer to his eight-year $184 million contract because of his defensive skills and his ability to handle pitchers. 

I believe it has a lot more to do with winning three batting titles in his six major league seasons with a .327 batting average.

Moving Mauer to first base is a win-win for the Twins.

As I mentioned on the previous slide, it reduces the wear and tear on Mauer, and it protects Justin Morneau from suffering another concussion—to a point.

In 2010 Morneau was having another MVP season as he was leading the Twins with a .345 average, with 18 home runs and 56 RBI—and it was only the beginning of July.

After suffering a concussion against the Blue Jays on July 7th, he did not play again that season.

The Twins MVP over the last two seasons, Michael Cuddyer, stepped up and finished the season playing 84 games at first base. He hit .271 with 14 home runs and 81 RBI in 2010.

Last season Morneau was limited to 56 games at first base. Recurring symptoms from the concussion plus a series of issues limited his performance to a .227 batting average with only four home runs and 30 RBI. 

Michael Cuddyer again filled in playing 46 games at first, and Luke Hughes took a turn there in 36 games.

Right now Mauer at first gives the Twins the strongest lineup by protecting Morneau and increasing Mauer's plate appearances.

It's not as strong as the Morneau/Cuddyer combination of 2010, unless of course Morneau makes a miraculous recovery and plays like he did in 2010—and earns his second MVP.

Second Base: Orlando Hudson vs. Alexi Casilla

In 2011 the Twins had seven different players start at second base. Alexi Casilla led the way with 53 starts.

Since Ron Gardenhire took over as manager in 2002, the Twins have had five different starting second basemen in the 10 seasons.

In 2010 it was Gold Glove winner Orlando Hudson. The switch-hitting Hudson batted .268 with six home runs and 37 RBI. 

In six seasons Casilla has only exceeded these numbers once.

The Twins also lose defensively—Hudson committed only eight errors in 124 games in 2010 and finished the season with a .987 fielding percentage. Compare that to Casilla who had six errors in 56 games resulting in a .977 fielding percentage.

The only hope here is if a battle develops in spring training and Tsuyoshi Nishioka or Luke Hughes demonstrate they are ready for a starting role at second.

With no one like Hudson in sight, it sure feels like another futile season from this position.  

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy vs. Nishioka vs. Jamey Carroll

If only the Twins would have hung on to J.J. Hardy. Of course with the way the Twins coach their hitters he would have never hit 30 home runs, or driven in 80 runs like he did in Baltimore.

Last season Tsuyoshi Nishioka opened the season at second base. It only took six games for him to realize that baseball in North America is played a little differently than in Japan after Nick Swisher broke his leg in a take-out slide.

Nishioka, a .293 hitter over eight seasons in Japan, hit only .226 with no home runs and 19 RBI. Demonstrating that he is not ready for major league baseball, the Twins signed veteran Jamey Carroll to play shortstop this season. 

While Carroll is an upgrade over Nishioka, at this point, I would still take the six home runs and 38 RBI that Hardy had in 2010. A career .278 hitter over 10 seasons, Carroll has never hit more than five home runs in a season had more than 36 RBI.

Third Base: Danny Valencia

This is the only position in the Twins lineup that has been the same—at least since June of 2010.

In 2010 Valencia hit .311 in 85 games with seven home runs and 40 RBI.

In his first full season as the Twins third baseman, his average dipped to .246, but the power was still evident as he finished the season with 15 home runs and 72 RBI.

The problem is his defense as he led the Twins with 18 errors last season. Of course he also led the Twins playing in 154 games as one of the few players to stay off the DL and in the lineup.

With a little more experience Valencia will settle down and get better.

Left Field: Delmon Young vs. Ben Revere

Here the debate is between the speed and defense of Ben Revere and the power of Delmon Young.

In 2010 Young had a monster year, the best in his six seasons at the major league level. He led the Twins with 112 RBI and was second on the team with 21 home runs—both career highs.

After trading Young to the Tigers last August, the Twins used an assortment of players to fill in, but no one really stepped up to claim left field.

This year Ben Revere is penciled in to take over in left after starting 88 games in center for the injured Denard Span in 2011.

Last season Revere hit .267 with only 30 RBI in 117 games with no home runs.

While Revere does not have the power of Young, he did lead the Twins with 34 stolen bases last season.

Revere may not drive in as many runs as Young, but his defense will help Twins pitchers and their ERAs.

This one is a push as Revere's defense matches Young's offense from 2010. Revere might not be able to match Young's offensive production, but as of yet, neither has Young.

Center Field: Denard Span vs. Ben Revere

Denard Span's best seasons with Minnesota was when he was competing with Carlos Gomez for a job.

In 2009 Span split time playing all three outfield positions. That season he hit a career-high .311 with a league leading 10 triples, and eight home runs and 68 RBI.

The Twins awarded him the starting center field job and shipped Gomez to Milwaukee. Since then, Span's average has dropped to .264, and in the two seasons since, he has hit only five home runs and with 74 RBI total.

With Span in center the Twins are no better or worse than they were in 2010.

Add the speedy Revere next to him in left, and the Twins outfield will turn a lot of fly balls into long outs at Target Field.

Right Field: Justin Kubel vs. Michael Cuddyer vs. Josh Willingham

In 2010, when Justin Morneau went down with the concussion and Michael Cuddyer filled in at first base, Jason Kubel took over in right field, starting 79 games there. He finished tied for second with 21 home runs and was second with 92 RBI.

Last season Cuddyer started 73 games in right field as one of five positions he played for the Twins.

Both have moved on signing free-agent contracts with Arizona and Colorado.

To fill the void the Twins signed Josh Willingham to take over in right—a move that befuddles me since Willingham has only played 35 games in right field in eight seasons.

On the positive side, Willingham has averaged a home run every 20.5 at-bats over his eight seasons with Florida, Washington and Oakland, while Kubel has averaged one every 24.6 at-bats and Cuddyer every 28.8 at-bats.

The Twins may lose something with Willingham, as Cuddyer has averaged five assists per season over his 11 major league seasons, and Willingham has averaged 4.1.

What the Twins may lose in arm strength and defense with the departure of Cuddyer, Willingham will make up with a little more power.

Designated Hitter: Jim Thome vs. Justin Morneau

The best scenario for the Twins in 2012 would be for Justin Morneau to be able to fill the designated hitter role as well as Jim Thome did in 2010, his first year in Minnesota.

In just over a season and a half as the Twins designated hitter, Thome averaged a home run every 13 at-bats.

In 2010 he led the Twins with 25 home runs, playing in only 71 games, averaging a home run every 11 at-bats.

The best situation in 2012 would have Morneau hitting the ball like he did in the first half of 2010 when he was leading the Twins with a .345 average with 18 home runs and 56 RBI.

The problem is Thome joined the Twins in his 20th year in the majors, while Morneau is only in his ninth, and has not played in more than 135 games since 2008 when he played in all 163 games for the Twins.

This one is too difficult to call at this point. I'm just not confident that Morneau will ever be able to produce like he did before the concussion in 2010.

In Summary...

The projected 2012 lineup for the Minnesota Twins will definitely be stronger than the one they had on the field for most of 2011.

Unfortunately, they will not be as strong as they were in 2010, specifically weaker at catcher, second base, shortstop and designated hitter.

It's a push at third base, left field and center field with Danny Valencia still at third, improved defense in left and hopefully a Denard Span who is motivated to produce in fear of losing his job in center.

If Josh Willingham can quickly make the adjustment to the limestone overhang in right, his power will help Twins fans recover form the loss of Michael Cuddyer.

Overall, the Twins will be lucky to get to .500 this season, and finish third in the AL Central behind Detroit and Cleveland.