NFL 2012 Draft Projections: Breaking Down the Development of Key First Rounders

The NFL draft is April 26, and for many first rounders, these past three or four years may have seemingly flown by. In that short time, these top prospects have done a ton to solidify or improve upon their prep school projections.

Let's take a look at three top prospects in the NFL draft. I'll break down what some talent prognosticators thought they were then, compared to what most see them as now.

Andrew Luck

I'll start here, as it seems all NFL draft conversations begin with Luck, as he, for all intents and purposes, will be the top pick in the NFL draft.

When Luck was scouted out of Stratford High School in Houston, TX, he was considered only a 4-star recruit. He was tabbed by Rivals as the fourth best pro-style QB in the class behind Blaine Gabbert, now of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Dayne Crist, now of Kansas Jayhawks, and NC State's Mike Glennon.

Needless to say, those rankings could use a reshuffling four years later.

Scout.com was very complimentary of Luck's talents, but did mention an "odd release" as his only glaring weakness. Here is how it is mentioned: "Despite having an odd release Luck shows a good arm and nice accuracy."

More recently, Luck was scrutinized by two of the biggest names in NFL draft analysis, Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay.

Notice that I didn't say the most accurate, as both Kiper and McShay have had their less-than-accurate prediction moments.

The praise for Luck was more spirited from Kiper and McShay, and much of this is due to Luck's physical and mental maturity. They did however, mention an issue with his release. It seems more subtle now, as McShay says this about that aspect of Luck's game:

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The only negative I see for Andrew Luck in this area is a tendency to pat the ball before he throws. It's not a pronounced motion like Drew Bledsoe showed coming out of college, but more of a slight tap. Still, he'll need to work on that to avoid tipping off defenders as to his intentions.

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Obviously, Luck's development over the past three years has been huge. He isn't just considered a top QB prospect, many are calling him the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning. Luck's 9,430 passing yards and 82 TDs highlight a distinguished collegiate career. That's a far cry from a kid who was considered a 4-star prospect out of high school.

Robert Griffin III

RG3 was considered the fourth best dual-threat QB in the nation by Rivals, behind Terelle Pryor of the Oakland Raiders, E.J. Manuel of Florida State and MarQueis Gray of Minnesota. The thing that jumps out most is the fact that Griffin wasn't ranked in the top 100 prospects nationally.

Griffin has exploded during his three years in Waco. He has thrown for 10,366 yards and 78 TD passes. His great college career culminated with winning the Heisman trophy this past season. Now he may be selected as high as second overall. Some may be surprised that he remained a QB.

ESPN's scouting report on RG3 said this in 2008: "Griffin is a wonderful athlete with great size, solid arm strength and the ability to move to wide receiver if he doesn't remain at quarterback in college."

Compare that to this assessment from fftoolbox.com:

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The truth is that Griffin is a very raw prospect with a few positives and a few negatives in his skill-set.

It is clear that Griffin has come a long way over the last few years. His ability to throw down the field while in the pocket has improved tremendously. That said, there are a lot of occasions where he bails out too quickly, takes his eyes off his receivers and runs. NFL coaches are really going to want him to keep his eyes downfield, even when scrambling in order to extend the play.

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Griffin still has doubters he must prove wrong. From wanting to change his position, to doubting his ability to make quality decisions, the doubts are nothing new.

RG3 will develop into a quality starting QB, and will continue to prove the naysayers wrong, on every level.

Justin Blackmon

Blackmon represents one of the most dramatic climbs of any player in this year's draft, from high school senior to draft eligible. 

Blackmon was considered the 91st ranked receiver in the nation as a high school senior, and only the 10th best in the state of Oklahoma. Rivals didn't have it all wrong that year. They had Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons and A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals as No. 1 and No. 2 as far as receivers. 

The draft's best wide receiver prospect now, was just considered a 3-star prospect then. Wow, talk about development and hard work. No matter what you think of Blackmon and his off-the-field issues, nothing else explains such a dramatic improvement.

Blackmon was so overlooked, Oklahoma Sooners head coach Bob Stoops didn't even recruit Blackmon out of Plainview High School. Blackmon has made Stoops and every other head coach who didn't chase him sorry.

Someone noticed Blackmon was on the upswing coming out of high school, as Scout.com published this when Blackmon received his offer from Oklahoma St.: "One of the biggest stories this season in Oklahoma high school football pertaining to recruiting has been the meteoric rise of Ardmore Plainview High School wide receiver/safety Justin Blackmon."

In his career at Oklahoma State, Blackmon hauled in 252 passes for 3,564 yards and 40 TDs in three seasons.

Now he will almost certainly be a top-five selection on April 26. This is a snap shot of his scouting report today:

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There are very few deficiencies in Justin Blackmon's overall game. His best asset is an ability to get after the ball while it is in the air. Whether it is leaping up to make a tough catch or routinely securing passes anywhere in his wheelhouse, Blackmon catches everything and goes after the ball hard. He comes back to the ball and shields defenders with his frame to win at the point of attack.

Blackmon has accumulated a ton of production while at Oklahoma State, a team unafraid to let it rip offensively.

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Blackmon reminds me of an AnQuan Boldin-type. He doesn't have exceptional speed, but he's tough, physical and a load after the catch because of his strength.

Blackmon will be a high production receiver, if not spectacular in the NFL.

It's easy to misread kids coming out of high school into college, as it is with collegiate athletes entering the NFL. Players go through transformations due to body changes, environment and mental approach—you can never be sure who a player will be.

As can't-miss as Andrew Luck appears to be, even he isn't a guarantee of success. Teams must hope and trust the eyes and experience of their scouts to prevent them from looking back on their selections with regret.