Super Bowl 2012: Predicting the MVP Based on History

There have been 46 players crowned as the Most Valuable Player of a Super Bowl. Who will it be this year?

Is it always the player with the best stats? How do heart and team leadership affect the outcome? Are there flukes, or rather is it a lack of options that crown a substandard performance?

The Super Bowl MVP Award winner is a hard thing to predict. Luckily, history can lend a hand.

In an attempt to identify a recent trend, here's a look at the last dozen winners.

2000: Kurt Warner

St. Louis Rams quarterback Kurt Warner led the Greatest Show on Turf to a victory over the Tennessee Titans.

Though the game may be most remembered for Kevin Dyson's outstretched hands on the 1-yard line as time expired, Kurt Warner's stats were phenomenal.

Stats: 24-46, 414 yards, 2 TDs

Verdict: Won based on statistics and leadership.

2001: Ray Lewis

Linebacker Ray Lewis captained arguably one of the best defenses in history.

The Baltimore Ravens held the New York Giants to just seven points in Super Bowl XXXV. Though his stats don't scream out at you, it's undeniable Ray Lewis has been the most valuable player on the Ravens for years.

Stats: 3 tackles, 2 assisted, 4 passes deflected

Verdict: Won based on leadership.

2002: Tom Brady

Quarterback Tom Brady went from zero to hero in one season.

In Super Bowl XXXVI however, kicker Adam Vinatieri scored more total points than Brady. Vinatieri also kicked the game-winner. Even cornerback Ty Law matched Brady's touchdown total with a pick-six.

Stats: 16-27, 145 yards, 1 TD

Verdict: Debatable why Brady won.

2003: Dexter Jackson

Though neither of free safety Dexter Jackson's two interceptions were returned for touchdowns as teammate Dwight Smith's were, they came at critical times.

Jackson picked off two of Rich Gannon's attempts in the first half, erasing hopes of gaining momentum early.

Stats: 2 tackles, 2 passes deflected, 2 interceptions

Verdict: Won based on timing of key plays. Debatable. It was either he or Smith.

2004: Tom Brady

In his second Super Bowl showing, quarterback Tom Brady played much closer to his potential. It took two quarters to get things going, but once they did, Brady never looked back.

Stats: 32-47, 354 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Verdict: Won based on statistics. It was either he or Deion Branch.

2005: Deion Branch

Wide receiver Deion Branch racked up more yardage than all of the other receivers combined in Super Bowl XXXIX.

Though he didn't score a touchdown, Branch did enough to continually move the Patriots down the field, setting them up for short scores. In a game where everyone else had a mediocre day, Branch was the lone standout.

Stats: 11 receptions, 133 yards

Verdict: Won by default. No better options.

2006: Hines Ward

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 123 yards. Wide Receiver Hines Ward caught five passes for 123 yards.

A terrible stat for a Super Bowl quarterback. A great stat for a wide receiver. Ward even tacked on one rush for 18 yards.

Stats: 5 catches, 123 yards, one TD. One rush for 18 yards

Verdict: Won by default. No better options.

2007: Peyton Manning

Quarterback Peyton Manning had an average day for a player in his position. He had an underwhelming day for Peyton Manning.

It was the two running backs, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, who carried most of the load. Rhodes rushed for 113 yards and a touchdown. Addai added 77 yards on the ground and another 66 through the air.

Stats: 25-38, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Verdict: Won as face of the franchise.

2008: Eli Manning

In quarterback Eli Manning's turn, it was yet another pedestrian Manning showing.

Eli didn't show up until the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII, scoring 14 of New York's 17 points. Those who watched understand Manning won based on his performance in that final drive.

Character, guts and confidence trumped statistics.

Stats: 19-34, 255 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Verdict: Won by default. No better options.

2009: Santonio Holmes

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes didn't score a touchdown until the final minute of Super Bowl XLIII.

It happened to be a come-from-behind, game-clinching, toe-tapping, highlight kind of catch. Though he waited 59 minutes and 25 seconds to score, he was still aggravating the defense all night.

Stats: 9 catches, 131 yards, 1 TD

Verdict: Won for statistics and game-winning catch.

2010: Drew Brees

Quarterback Drew Brees is in large part responsible for the comeback of an entire city. Quickly after signing with the New Orleans Saints, Brees became the face not only of the franchise, but possibly of the state.

His outstanding play on the field ranks second to his inspiring efforts within the community. Perhaps Brees received his MVP Award in similar fashion to Ray Lewis—for heart and leadership.

Stats: 32-39, 288 yards, 2 TDs

Verdict: Won for leadership.

2011: Aaron Rodgers

You wouldn't have guessed it was Aaron Rodgers' first trip to a Super Bowl. Unlike Brady, Manning and Roethlisberger before him, Rodgers had himself quite a day.

Rodgers was strategic, throwing touchdowns in three of the four quarters. Stats and leadership led to this MVP Award.

Stats: 24-39, 304 yards, 3 TD

Verdict: Won for leadership and statistics.

Historical Breakdown

Super Bowl MVPs by position:

Quarterbacks = 24
Running Backs = 7
Wide Receivers = 6
Safeties = 2
Linebackers = 2
Defensive Ends = 2
Defensive Tackles = 1
Cornerbacks = 1
Return Specialists = 1

However, since 2000, it looks more like this:

Quarterbacks = 7
Wide Receivers = 3
Safety = 1
Linebacker = 1

The trend, both in history and in the last dozen years, points to quarterbacks. That's obvious. History says that running backs win the next most often. Recently though, the trend has been toward wide receivers.

There's an argument to be made that five in this list won in large part due to their leadership. Let's keep that in mind.

Obviously players have won for their leadership skills and popularity as the face of the franchise as well, and not their performance. Factor that in as well.

New England's Candidates

Immediately throw out anyone on special teams. Neither team has any superstars there.

The Patriots are a passing team. The running backs are out. Besides, the running game will be inefficient against New York's defensive line.

Based on the lack of tight ends winning the award, you might think they're due. But Brady is the clear cut leader—the face of the franchise—and the guy throwing to the tight ends.

Instead of a setting a precedent for a tight end, we might instead see the second ever three-time winner. Remember, Gronkowski, as of this writing, is still a bit banged up.

No one on defense is a demonstrated leader or bigger face of the franchise than Tom Brady. It'd take a huge effort to top him.

That leaves Brady as the best possible candidate.

New York's Candidates

The Giants' run game is better. But they too are more of a passing team. New England's run defense is much better than its pass defense.

Eliminate Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs from consideration. Eli Manning is an obvious candidate, and each of his wideouts are threats. They're all in.

There are no studs at the linebacker or cornerback position; none of them are inspiring leaders, and none of them are going to effectively stop the wide receivers all night.

That leaves defensive linemen. All four of them are in.

Predicting the Super Bowl XLVI MVP

The MVP Awards since 2004 went to a quarterback, two wide receivers, two quarterbacks, a wide receiver and then two more quarterbacks.

We've just had our two quarterbacks in Brees and Rodgers. The MVP hasn't been awarded to a quarterback three years in a row since 1981 (then a fourth in 1982). 

It's likely time for someone else.

We also haven't seen a defensive player win the award in a decade. You could say they're due as well.

If the New England Patriots win: Tom Brady, for lack of better candidates.

Dark Horse Candidate: Kyle Arrington. If Brady has another awful game and Arrington can be the guy to make a game-changing play, then it's possible.

Stopping a high-powered offense while playing on a below-average defense may even help him garner recognition for the MVP Award.

If the New York Giants win: Hakeem Nicks. He's been fantastic all season.

If Kyle Arrington, New England's best corner, matches up on Victor Cruz, Nicks is the guy to see the biggest opportunities.

Dark Horse Candidate: Chris Canty. With all the attention on Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, Canty's effort has been wildly overshadowed. He's just as tough a player as the rest.