Super Bowl Predictions 2012: How Patriots Will Neutralize Giants' Pass Rush

It might be hard to completely realize this, but the absence of Randy Moss in his prime makes the Patriots a better offense, at least when it comes to facing a team like the Giants. 

The Giants defense is dependent on their pass rush. If they can't get pressure on the quarterback, they don't win. 

Without a pass rush, the Giants are dependent on their 29th ranked pass defense to stop the opposition's receivers. Although New York did beat the 49ers, Alex Smith hit Vernon Davis for touchdown passes of 73 and 28 yards. 

When the quarterback throwing the ball is Tom Brady and the receivers in question are Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez, the task becomes quite a bit more difficult. 

So how does Moss fit into all of this? When the two teams met in Super Bowl XLII, he was an integral part of the New England offense. His 1,493 receiving yards led the team. On top of that was 23 touchdown catches, which is an NFL record.

But look at those scores; Moss' game was largely vertical. He ran a lot of deep routes which, while deadly, also gave the opponent time to get in the face of the quarterback. 

Now, the primary receivers are Welker, and two tight ends. These are all receivers that catch short passes and make plays afterwards. Most of Moss' yardage was picked up before the ball ever got into his hands. These receivers run routes that don't give pass rushers time to pressure Brady.

This was the strategy that the Patriots used to beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. 

	Receptions	Yards
Wes Welker	6	53
Rob Gronkowski	5	87
Aaron Hernandez	7	66

Now, they are not facing the Ravens defense. The regular season tale of the tape says that.

	Passing Yards Per Game	NFL Rank	Rushing Yards Per Game	NFL Rank	Points Per Game	NFL Rank
Baltimore Ravens	196.3	4	92.6	2	16.6	3
New York Giants	255.1	29	121.3	19	25	25

The Patriots put up 23 points against the Ravens, who only got to Brady once. During the regular season, New York and Baltimore actually had 48 sacks each. The tiebreaker clearly rests with the Ravens. 

Prior to the AFC Championship game, the last time the Ravens and Patriots met in the playoffs resulted in a Baltimore win. In that game, Welker was hurt, while Gronkowski and Hernandez weren't yet in the NFL. Moss and the vertical threat was New England's primary weapon. As a result, the Pats had a tough day.

The last time the Giants and Patriots met in the Super Bowl, Moss was a big part of the offense. Welker was on the team, but Hernandez and Gronkowski were not. So, they got a pass rush in Brady's face, sacking Brady five times. 

The short routes of New England's primary weapons won't allow for that to happen again. The pass rush will be kept in check by short routes and sneak attacks in the running game. That is going to put pressure on the Giants secondary, which is not a good thing for the NFC champs. 

What all of this means is that if the Giants are going to win this one, they will need to score a lot of points. New England's offense will not be held to 14 points in this Super Bowl.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Giants 28

Follow @mdixon1985